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5 posts on "FOMC"

September 09, 2013

Preparing for Takeoff? Professional Forecasters and the June 2013 FOMC Meeting

Richard Crump, Stefano Eusepi, and Emanuel Moench

Following the June 18-19 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting different measures of short-term interest rates increased notably. In the chart below, we plot two such measures: the two-year Treasury yield and the one-year overnight indexed swap (OIS) forward rate, one year in the future. The vertical line indicates the final day of the June FOMC meeting. To what extent did this rise in rates following the June FOMC meeting reflect a shift in the expected future path of the federal funds rate (FFR)? Market participants and policy makers often directly read the expected path from financial market data such as the OIS contracts. In this post, we take an alternative approach by looking at surveys of professional forecasters to assess how expectations changed.


Continue reading "Preparing for Takeoff? Professional Forecasters and the June 2013 FOMC Meeting" »

Posted by Blog Author at 7:00 AM in FOMC, Forecasting, Macroecon, Monetary Policy | Permalink | Comments (0)

January 07, 2013

Making a Statement: How Did Professional Forecasters React to the August 2011 FOMC Statement?

Richard Crump, Stefano Eusepi, and Emanuel Moench

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) statement released on August 9, 2011, was the first to incorporate language on “forward guidance” with an explicit date tied to the Committee’s expected path of monetary policy. In this post, we exploit the timing of surveys taken before and after this statement’s release to investigate how professional forecasters changed their expectations of growth, inflation, and monetary policy. We find that the average forecast of the federal funds rate shifts considerably and closely aligns with the new language in the statement, while the average forecasts for growth and inflation change less. While there’s near unanimity among forecasters about the future path of the federal funds rate after the August 2011 FOMC statement, forecasters maintained differing views on the growth and inflation outlooks.

Continue reading "Making a Statement: How Did Professional Forecasters React to the August 2011 FOMC Statement?" »

Posted by Blog Author at 7:00 AM in Expectations, FOMC, Macroecon, Monetary Policy | Permalink | Comments (0)

November 02, 2012

Historical Echoes: FOMC … “Minutes” by Minutes

Kathleen McKiernan

Although the Federal Reserve was founded in 1913, the Federal Open Market Committee,  or FOMC, wasn’t created until passage of the Banking Act of 1933. Congress established the name and legal structure of the FOMC as a formal committee of the twelve Reserve Banks. In 1935, a System reorganization added the seven-member Board of Governors to the twelve Reserve Bank presidents—uniting the centralized and decentralized components of the Fed. In the Banking Act of 1935, Congress mandated that only five of the twelve Reserve Bank presidents would vote at any one time, along with the seven governors. The first FOMC meeting convened a year later, in March 1936.

Continue reading "Historical Echoes: FOMC … “Minutes” by Minutes" »

Posted by Blog Author at 7:00 AM in FOMC, Historical Echoes | Permalink | Comments (0)

October 01, 2012

Is U.S. Monetary Policy Seasonal?

Richard Crump and David Lucca

Many economic time series display periodic and predictable patterns within each calendar year, generally referred to as seasonal effects. For example, retail sales tend to be higher in December than in other months. These patterns are well-known to economists, who apply statistical filters to remove seasonal effects so that the resulting series are more easily comparable across months. Because policy decisions are based on seasonally adjusted series, we wouldn’t expect the decisions to exhibit any seasonal behavior. Yet, in this post we find that the Federal Reserve has been much more likely to lower interest rates in the first month of each quarter over the past twenty-five years. While some of this seasonality is a result of meeting scheduling, a large seasonal component remains unexplained.

Continue reading "Is U.S. Monetary Policy Seasonal?" »

Posted by Blog Author at 7:00 AM in Fed Funds, FOMC, Macroecon, Monetary Policy | Permalink | Comments (0)

July 11, 2012

The Puzzling Pre-FOMC Announcement “Drift”

David Lucca and Emanuel Moench

For many years, economists have struggled to explain the “equity premium puzzle”—the fact that the average return on stocks is larger than what would be expected to compensate for their riskiness. In this post, which draws on our recent New York Fed staff report, we deepen the puzzle further. We show that since 1994, more than 80 percent of the equity premium on U.S. stocks has been earned over the twenty-four hours preceding scheduled Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announcements (which occur only eight times a year)—a phenomenon we call the pre-FOMC announcement “drift.”

Continue reading "The Puzzling Pre-FOMC Announcement “Drift”" »

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