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18 posts on "Puerto Rico"

July 09, 2018

U.S. Virgin Islands’ Economy Hit Hard by Irma and Maria



LSE_U.S. Virgin Islands’ Economy Hit Hard by Irma and Maria

In the ten months that have passed since Hurricanes Irma and Maria ravaged the Caribbean, much interest has been focused on Puerto Rico and its roughly 3.3 million American citizens, who weathered the largest blackout in U.S. history. However, far less attention has been paid to the U.S. Virgin Islands, even though St. Thomas, St. Croix, St. John, and a number of smaller islands suffered comparable devastation. This is partly attributable to their much smaller population: the U.S. Virgin Islands (“Virgin Islands”) is home to roughly 105,000 people—1/30th Puerto Rico’s population. Even so, this territory is also part of the United States and the New York Fed’s district. In this post, we examine roughly six months of economic and related data on the Virgin Islands’ economy to better ascertain the extent of disruption and subsequent recovery from the devastation of Hurricanes Irma and Maria.

Continue reading "U.S. Virgin Islands’ Economy Hit Hard by Irma and Maria" »

Posted by Blog Author at 7:00 AM in Puerto Rico, Regional Analysis | Permalink | Comments (0)

February 22, 2018

Just Released: Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands after Hurricanes Irma and Maria



LSE_2018_Just Released: Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands after Hurricanes Irma and Maria

An examination of the fallout from Hurricanes Irma and Maria on the economies of Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands was the focus of an economic press briefing today at the New York Fed. Both U.S. territories were suffering from significant economic downturns and fiscal stress well before the storms hit in September 2017, raising concerns about their paths to recovery.

Continue reading "Just Released: Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands after Hurricanes Irma and Maria" »

January 12, 2018

Beginning to Gauge Maria’s Effect on Puerto Rico’s Economy



LSE_Beginning to Gauge Maria’s Effect on Puerto Rico’s Economy

Just two weeks after most of Puerto Rico dodged the proverbial bullet, missing the brunt of Hurricane Irma, the island was devastated by Maria—one of the ten strongest Atlantic hurricanes on record. Making landfall on September 20, 2017, the storm caused not only massive physical destruction and tragic loss of life but also widespread and persistent power outages, shortages of potable (and even nonpotable) running water, and disruptions to telecommunications and travel, among other issues. With the storm boosting costs and disrupting activity, the short-term economic impact is clearly significant. But an even greater concern is that the adverse short-term effects of the storm, overlaid on an already shrinking economy, may evolve into long-term adverse effects. In this post, we focus on the magnitude, duration, breadth and nature of the economic disruptions, as measured mostly by employment.

Continue reading "Beginning to Gauge Maria’s Effect on Puerto Rico’s Economy" »

Posted by Blog Author at 7:00 AM in Puerto Rico, Regional Analysis | Permalink | Comments (0)

August 12, 2016

Puerto Rico’s Evolving Household Debts



LSE_Puerto Rico’s Evolving Household Debts

Debt and its performance play a critical role in economic development. The enormous increase in mortgage debt that took place during the run-up to the 2007 financial crisis and the contribution of that debt to the crisis underscore the importance of household debt to financial stability and economic growth. While we regularly report on household debt at the national level and for selected states in our Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit, we have not reported separately on Puerto Rico. This post introduces metrics on household debt in Puerto Rico, which we plan to update regularly. Like our other reports on household debt, this analysis uses our FRBNY Consumer Credit Panel, which is based on anonymized credit data from Equifax. We also take a look at some data for Puerto Rico’s banking sector to complete the picture of household debt for the Commonwealth.

Continue reading "Puerto Rico’s Evolving Household Debts" »

Posted by Blog Author at 7:00 AM in Credit, Household Finance, Puerto Rico, Regional Analysis | Permalink | Comments (0)

August 11, 2016

Human Capital and Education in Puerto Rico



LSE_Human Capital and Education in Puerto Rico

Educational attainment is an important element of human capital; however a series of recent papers highlights the crucial role of the quality of education—which determines the skills actually learned, rather than the number of years spent in a classroom—as a main driver of growth. In fact, Hanushek and Woessmann argue that the importance of more appropriately measuring skills is seen in the very tight relationship between quality of skills, or knowledge capital, and growth. Moreover, the researchers state, “The knowledge capital–growth relationship suggests little mystery for East Asia, Latin America, or other regions: Growth rates are accounted for by cognitive skills.” Similarly, “Considering knowledge capital dramatically increases our ability to account for differences in growth.”

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Posted by Blog Author at 7:00 AM in Education, Human Capital, Puerto Rico, Regional Analysis | Permalink | Comments (3)

August 10, 2016

Puerto Rico’s Shrinking Labor Force Participation



LSE_Puerto Rico’s Shrinking Labor Force Participation

A key concern about Puerto Rico’s prospects is that its labor force participation rate, which is the percentage of the adult population either working or looking for work, has fallen sharply. Looking at the data shows that this decline cannot be attributed to any particular demographic segment. Instead, it is the consequence of an aging population, accelerated by a falling birth rate and outmigration of a relatively young cohort. Expected demographic trends will continue to put downward pressure on the participation rate over the medium term, creating a challenging headwind for the economy to overcome.

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August 09, 2016

Just Released: Recent Developments in Consumer Credit Card Borrowing



LSE_2016_Just Released: Recent Developments in Consumer Credit Card Borrowing

The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Center for Microeconomic Data today released its Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit for the second quarter of 2016. It showed that overall household debt increased modestly over the period, with subdued mortgage originations and moderate but continued increases in non-housing related credit—particularly auto loans and credit cards. The total outstanding credit card balance now stands at $729 billion, up $17 billion from the first quarter, but still well below the peak of $866 billion reached in the fourth quarter of 2008. Credit card delinquency rates have continued to improve since peaking in 2008. We have previously “looked under the hood” of auto loans, and in this post, we present analysis that provides new insight into credit card debt by examining trends in credit card issuance and usage. The Quarterly Report and the following analyses are based on data from the New York Fed’s Consumer Credit Panel, which is a nationally representative sample drawn from Equifax credit reports.

Continue reading "Just Released: Recent Developments in Consumer Credit Card Borrowing" »

Migration in Puerto Rico: Is There a Brain Drain?



LSE_Migration in Puerto Rico: Is There a Brain Drain?

Given Puerto Rico’s long-term economic malaise and ongoing fiscal crisis, it is no wonder that out-migration of the Island’s residents has picked up. Over the past five years alone, migration has resulted in a net outflow of almost 300,000 people, a staggering loss. It would make matters worse, however, if Puerto Rico were losing an outsized share of its highest-paid workers. But we find that, if anything, Puerto Rico’s migrants are actually tilted somewhat toward the lower end of the skills and earnings spectrum. Still, such a large outflow of potentially productive workers and taxpayers is an alarming trend that is likely to have profound consequences for the Island for years to come.

Continue reading "Migration in Puerto Rico: Is There a Brain Drain?" »

August 08, 2016

Restoring Economic Growth in Puerto Rico: Introduction to the Series



LSE_Restoring Economic Growth in Puerto Rico: Introduction to the Series


The difficult economic and financial issues facing the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico have remained very much in the news since our post on options for addressing its fiscal problems appeared last fall. That post was itself a follow-up on a series of analyses, starting with a 2012 report that detailed the economic challenges facing the Commonwealth. In 2014, we extended that analysis with an update where we focused more closely on the fiscal challenges facing the Island. As the problems deepened, we have continued to examine important related subjects ranging from positive revisions in employment data, to the credit conditions faced by small businesses, to understanding emigration, and to considering how the Commonwealth’s public debts stack up. In most of this work, we have focused on how policymakers could help to address the immediate issues facing the Island and its people. The U.S. Congress and the Obama Administration took action in June to provide a framework to help address Puerto Rico’s fiscal crisis. But much remains to be done to address these ongoing problems, which represent a significant impediment to economic growth in the short run. It also seems important to revisit the question of the prospects for reviving longer-run growth in the Commonwealth. These concerns were underscored by projections published by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in the April edition of the World Economic Outlook that forecast Puerto Rico’s real GDP and population to decline through 2021.

Continue reading "Restoring Economic Growth in Puerto Rico: Introduction to the Series" »

November 03, 2015

Some Options for Addressing Puerto Rico’s Fiscal Problems



LSE_2015-just-released-puerto-rico-fiscal-problems_haughwout_460_art


Puerto Rico’s economic and fiscal challenges have been an important focus of work done here at the New York Fed, resulting in two reports (2012 and 2014), several blog posts and one paper in our Current Issues series in just the last few years. As the Commonwealth’s problems have deepened, the Obama administration and Congress have begun discussing potential approaches to addressing them. In this post, we update our previous estimates of Puerto Rico’s outstanding debt and discuss the effect that various forms of bankruptcy protection might have on the Commonwealth.

Continue reading "Some Options for Addressing Puerto Rico’s Fiscal Problems" »

Posted by Blog Author at 12:00 PM in Fiscal Policy, Puerto Rico, Regional Analysis | Permalink | Comments (2)
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