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61 posts on "Unemployment"

May 19, 2017

Hey, Economist! Is Now a Good Time to Be Graduating from College?



LSE_2017_Hey, Economist! Is Now a Good Time to Be Graduating from College?

With the 2017 college graduation season in full swing, we thought it would be helpful to take stock of the job prospects for recent college graduates. Is now a good time to be graduating from college? Publications editor Trevor Delaney caught up with Jaison Abel and Richard Deitz, two economists in our Research and Statistics Group, to discuss some of their work on the labor market for recent college graduates.

Continue reading "Hey, Economist! Is Now a Good Time to Be Graduating from College?" »

Posted by Blog Author at 7:00 AM in Education, Labor Economics, Unemployment | Permalink | Comments (1)

November 16, 2016

Escaping Unemployment Traps



LSE_2016_Escaping Unemployment Traps

Economic activity has remained subdued following the Great Recession. One interpretation of the listless recovery is that recessions inflict permanent damage on an economy’s productive capacity. For example, extended periods of high unemployment can lead to skill losses among workers, reducing human capital and lowering future output. This notion that temporary recessions have long-lasting consequences is often termed hysteresis. Another explanation for sluggish growth is the influential secular stagnation hypothesis, which attributes slow growth to long-term changes in the economy’s underlying structure. While these explanations are observationally similar, they have very different policy implications. In particular, if structural factors are responsible for slow growth, then there might be little monetary policy can do to reverse this trend. If instead hysteresis is to blame, then monetary policy may be able to reverse slowdowns in potential output, or even prevent them from occurring in the first place.

Continue reading "Escaping Unemployment Traps" »

Posted by Blog Author at 7:00 AM in Employment, Macroecon, Monetary Policy, Unemployment, Wages | Permalink | Comments (0)

November 14, 2016

Inflation and Japan’s Ever-Tightening Labor Market



LSE_Inflation_japan_tightening_labor_market_iStock_16873820_460x288

Japan offers a preview of future U.S. demographic trends, having already seen a large increase in the population over 65. So, how has the Japanese economy dealt with this change? A look at the data shows that women of all ages have been pulled into the labor force and that more people are working longer. This transformation of the work force has not been enough to prevent a very tight labor market in a slowly growing economy, and it may help explain why inflation remains minimal. Namely, wages are not responding as much as they might to the tight labor market because women and older workers tend to have lower bargaining power than prime-age males.

Continue reading "Inflation and Japan’s Ever-Tightening Labor Market" »

October 24, 2016

Are Banks Being Roiled by Oil?



LSE_Are Banks Being Roiled by Oil?

Profits and employment in the oil and natural gas extraction industry have fallen significantly since 2014, reflecting a sustained decline in energy prices. In this post, we look at how these tremors are affecting banks that operate in energy industry–intensive regions of the United States. We find that banks in the “oil patch” have experienced a significant rise in delinquencies on commercial and industrial loans. So far though, there appears to be limited evidence of spillovers to other types of loans and no evidence of widespread bank losses or failures in these regions.

Continue reading "Are Banks Being Roiled by Oil?" »

Posted by Blog Author at 7:00 AM in Employment, Financial Institutions, Unemployment | Permalink | Comments (0)

October 17, 2016

What Caused the Decline in Interstate Migration in the United States?



LSE_What Caused the Decline in Interstate Migration in the United States?

Geographic mobility is thought to be important both for economic mobility and for the efficiency of a labor market in allocating the right people to the right jobs. Accordingly, the willingness of the U.S. workforce to move is a factor behind the greater dynamism of the U.S. labor market compared to Europe. While Europeans tend to be more reluctant to move to distant places within their respective countries, the idea of moving across state borders for a job has been woven into the fabric of the American Dream. However, the image of the United States as a mobile nation has changed substantially over recent decades. This post investigates the role that demographic shifts—in particular, the nation’s aging population—have played in the recent decline in interstate migration.

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Posted by Blog Author at 7:00 AM in Labor Economics, Regional Analysis, Unemployment | Permalink | Comments (4)

October 05, 2016

Why Did the Recent Oil Price Declines Affect Bond Prices of Non-Energy Companies?



LSE_Why Did the Recent Oil Price Declines Affect Bond Prices of Non-Energy Companies?

Oil prices plunged 65 percent between July 2014 and December of the following year. During this period, the yield spread—the yield of a corporate bond minus the yield of a Treasury bond of the same maturity—of energy companies shot up, indicating increased credit risk. Surprisingly, the yield spread of non‑energy firms also rose even though many non‑energy firms might be expected to benefit from lower energy‑related costs. In this blog post, we examine this counterintuitive result. We find evidence of a liquidity spillover, whereby the bonds of more liquid non‑energy firms had to be sold to satisfy investors who withdrew from bond funds in response to falling energy prices.

Continue reading "Why Did the Recent Oil Price Declines Affect Bond Prices of Non-Energy Companies?" »

September 28, 2016

U.S. Real Wage Growth: Slowing Down With Age



LSE_U.S. Real Wage Growth: Slowing Down With Age

Second of two posts
In Monday’s post, we described the estimation of real wage growth rates for different cohorts of U.S. workers. We showed that the life-cycle pattern of real wage growth is characterized by high growth early in a worker’s career, little to no growth in mid-career, and negative growth as workers near retirement. We also documented that a growing fraction of the U.S. adult population is transitioning into the flat to negative real wage growth phases of their careers. Here, we turn our attention to estimating the effect of this demographic shift on the economy-wide average real wage growth rate. Our analysis shows that this economy-wide average real wage growth rate has declined by a third since the mid-1980s.

Continue reading "U.S. Real Wage Growth: Slowing Down With Age" »

Posted by Blog Author at 7:00 AM in Demographics, Employment, Expectations, Unemployment, Wages | Permalink | Comments (2)

August 09, 2016

Migration in Puerto Rico: Is There a Brain Drain?



LSE_Migration in Puerto Rico: Is There a Brain Drain?

Given Puerto Rico’s long-term economic malaise and ongoing fiscal crisis, it is no wonder that out-migration of the Island’s residents has picked up. Over the past five years alone, migration has resulted in a net outflow of almost 300,000 people, a staggering loss. It would make matters worse, however, if Puerto Rico were losing an outsized share of its highest-paid workers. But we find that, if anything, Puerto Rico’s migrants are actually tilted somewhat toward the lower end of the skills and earnings spectrum. Still, such a large outflow of potentially productive workers and taxpayers is an alarming trend that is likely to have profound consequences for the Island for years to come.

Continue reading "Migration in Puerto Rico: Is There a Brain Drain?" »

August 03, 2016

The Reluctance of Firms to Interview the Long-Term Unemployed



LSE_The Reluctance of Firms to Interview the Long-Term Unemployed

Estimates from the Current Population Survey show that the probability of finding a job declines the longer one is unemployed. Is this due to a loss of skills from being unemployed, employer discrimination against the long-term unemployed, or are there characteristics of workers in this segment of the workforce that lower their probability of finding a job? Studies that send out fictitious resumes find that employers do consider the length of unemployment in deciding whom to interview. Our recent work examines how such employer screening based on unemployment duration ultimately affects job-finding rates and long-term unemployment.

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Posted by Blog Author at 7:00 AM in Employment, Labor Economics, Macroecon, Unemployment | Permalink | Comments (0)

June 24, 2016

Just Released: May’s Indexes of Coincident Economic Indicators Show Economic Growth Moderating across the Region



LSE_Just Released: May’s Indexes of Coincident Economic Indicators Show Economic Growth Moderating across the Region

The May Indexes of Coincident Economic Indicators (CEIs) for New Jersey, New York State, and New York City, released today, show some slowing in economic growth across the region—in part reflecting the Verizon strike (which has since been settled), as well as somewhat weaker economic fundamentals. As shown in the chart below, New York City continues to be the strongest engine of growth in the region, by far, though there too, we have seen some deceleration.

Continue reading "Just Released: May’s Indexes of Coincident Economic Indicators Show Economic Growth Moderating across the Region" »

Posted by Blog Author at 9:15 AM in Macroecon, Regional Analysis, Unemployment | Permalink | Comments (0)
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