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62 posts on "Unemployment"

June 24, 2016

Just Released: May’s Indexes of Coincident Economic Indicators Show Economic Growth Moderating across the Region



LSE_Just Released: May’s Indexes of Coincident Economic Indicators Show Economic Growth Moderating across the Region

The May Indexes of Coincident Economic Indicators (CEIs) for New Jersey, New York State, and New York City, released today, show some slowing in economic growth across the region—in part reflecting the Verizon strike (which has since been settled), as well as somewhat weaker economic fundamentals. As shown in the chart below, New York City continues to be the strongest engine of growth in the region, by far, though there too, we have seen some deceleration.

Continue reading "Just Released: May’s Indexes of Coincident Economic Indicators Show Economic Growth Moderating across the Region" »

Posted by Blog Author at 9:15 AM in Macroecon, Regional Analysis, Unemployment | Permalink | Comments (0)

February 25, 2016

Just Released: Five New Data Series on Consumer Expectations



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Today, the New York Fed is introducing a number of new data series and interactive charts reporting findings from its Survey of Consumer Expectations (SCE). Since January 2014, we have been reporting findings from this monthly survey on U.S. households’ views on inflation, commodity prices, the labor market and household finances. In addition to interactive charts showing national trends (going back to June 2013), as well as trends by demographic groups (age, income, education, numeracy and geography), we also make the underlying micro data (with a nine-month lag) available for download for research purposes.

Continue reading "Just Released: Five New Data Series on Consumer Expectations " »

Posted by Blog Author at 7:00 AM in Expectations, Household Finance, Inflation, Unemployment | Permalink | Comments (0)

February 05, 2016

Crisis Chronicles: The Long Depression and the Panic of 1873



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It always seemed to come down to railroads in the 1800s. Railroads fueled much of the economic growth in the United States at that time, but they required that a great deal of upfront capital be devoted to risky projects. The panics of 1837 and 1857 can both be pinned on railroad investments that went awry, creating enough doubt about the banking system to cause pervasive bank runs. The fatal spark for the Panic of 1873 was also tied to railroad investments—a major bank financing a railroad venture announced that it would suspend withdrawals. As other banks started failing, consumers and businesses pulled back and America entered what is recorded as the country’s longest depression.

Continue reading "Crisis Chronicles: The Long Depression and the Panic of 1873" »

November 05, 2015

How Did Quantitative Easing Interact with Regional Inequality?



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Income, or wealth, inequality is not something that central bankers generally worry about when setting monetary policy, the goals of which are to maintain price stability and promote full employment. Nevertheless, it is important to understand whether and how monetary policy affects inequality, and this topic has recently generated quite a bit of discussion and academic research, with some arguing that the Federal Reserve’s expansionary policy of recent years has exacerbated inequality (see, for instance, here or here), while others reach the opposite conclusion (see here or here). This disagreement can be attributed in part to the different channels through which expansionary monetary policy can affect inequality: its effect on asset prices would tend to increase inequality, while its effect on labor incomes and employment would likely decrease inequality. In this post, I study one particular channel through which Fed policies may have disparate effects—namely, mortgage refinancing—and I focus on dispersion across locations in the United States.

Continue reading "How Did Quantitative Easing Interact with Regional Inequality?" »

November 02, 2015

Understanding Earnings Dispersion



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How much someone earns is an important determinant of many significant decisions over the course of a lifetime. Therefore, understanding how and why earnings are dispersed across individuals is central to understanding dispersion in a wide range of areas such as durable and non-durable consumption expenditures, debt, hours worked, and even health. Drawing on a recent New York Fed staff report "What Do Data on Millions of U.S. Workers Reveal about Life-Cycle Earnings Risks?", this blog post investigates the nature of earnings inequality over a lifetime.  It finds that earnings are subject to significant downside risk and that such risk contributes substantially to overall earnings dispersion.

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Posted by Blog Author at 7:02 AM in Labor Economics, Macroecon, Unemployment | Permalink | Comments (0)

Beyond the Macroeconomy



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The Federal Reserve’s statutory mission from Congress is to achieve maximum employment and price stability for the country as a whole. In line with this dual mandate, economists at the New York Fed monitor conditions in the “aggregate” economy on a day-to-day basis. But in addition, they have been doing a substantial amount of work to understand the differences in economic experiences across individuals, households, and regions. This blog series will examine our economists’ findings on how labor, housing, and health outcomes vary for different groups. A brief summary of the posts in the series follows:

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Posted by Blog Author at 7:00 AM in Labor Economics, Macroecon, Unemployment | Permalink | Comments (0)

September 02, 2015

Searching for Higher Wages





Since the peak of the recession, the unemployment rate has fallen by almost 5 percentage points, and observers continue to focus on whether and when this decline will lead to robust wage growth. Typically, in the wake of such a decline, real wages grow since there is more competition for workers among potential employers. While this relationship has historically been quite informative, real wage growth more recently has not been commensurate with observed declines in the unemployment rate.

Continue reading "Searching for Higher Wages" »

Posted by Blog Author at 7:00 AM in Employment, Labor Economics, Unemployment, Wages | Permalink | Comments (3)

May 15, 2015

Just Released: The New York Fed Staff Forecast, May 2015



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Today, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York (FRBNY) is hosting the spring meeting of its Economic Advisory Panel (EAP). As has become custom at this meeting, FRBNY staff are presenting their forecast for U.S. growth, inflation, and unemployment through the end of 2016. Following the presentation, members of the EAP, which consists of leading economists in academia and the private sector, are asked to discuss the staff forecast. Such feedback helps the staff evaluate the assumptions and reasoning underlying the forecast and the key risks to it. Subjecting the staff forecast to periodic evaluation is also important because it informs the staff’s discussions with New York Fed President William Dudley about economic conditions. In that same spirit, we are sharing a short summary of the staff forecast in this post.  For more detail, please see the material from the EAP meeting on our website.

Continue reading "Just Released: The New York Fed Staff Forecast, May 2015" »

The Class of 2015 Might Have a Little Better Luck Finding a Good Job



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With the college graduation season well under way, a new crop of freshly minted graduates is entering the job market and many bright young minds are hoping to land a good first job. It’s no wonder if they are approaching the job hunt with some trepidation. For a number of years now, recent college graduates have been struggling to find good jobs. However, the labor market for college graduates is improving. After declining for nearly two years, openings for jobs requiring a college degree have picked up since last summer. Not only has this increase in the demand for educated workers continued to push down the unemployment rate for recent graduates, but it has also finally started to help reduce underemployment, though the underemployment rate remains high. While successfully navigating the job market will likely remain a challenge, it appears that finding a good job has become just a little bit easier for the class of 2015.

Continue reading "The Class of 2015 Might Have a Little Better Luck Finding a Good Job" »

Posted by Blog Author at 7:00 AM in Education, Labor Economics, Unemployment | Permalink | Comments (0)

April 10, 2015

Crisis Chronicles: The Panic of 1825 and the Most Fantastic Financial Swindle of All Time



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Centered in London, the banking panic of 1825 has been called the first modern financial crisis, the first Latin American crisis, and the first emerging market crisis. And while the panic displayed many of the key elements of past crises we have covered—fluctuations in money growth, an investment bubble, a stock market crash, and bank runs—this crisis had its own twists, including a Bank of England that hesitated before stepping in as lender of last resort. But it is perhaps best known for an infamous bond market swindle surrounding an entirely made-up Central American principality. In this edition of Crisis Chronicles, we explore the Panic of 1825 and visit the mythical nation of Poyais.

Continue reading "Crisis Chronicles: The Panic of 1825 and the Most Fantastic Financial Swindle of All Time " »

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Liberty Street Economics features insight and analysis from New York Fed economists working at the intersection of research and policy. Launched in 2011, the blog takes its name from the Bank’s headquarters at 33 Liberty Street in Manhattan’s Financial District.

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