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9 posts from January 2013January 30, 2013
Just Released: NY Fed’s Erica Groshen Becomes Commissioner of Labor Statistics
Jamie McAndrews
What could cap being a Liberty Street Economics blogger/editor? Apparently, for one of us, becoming a chief bean-counter. Yesterday, our colleague Erica L. Groshen was sworn in as the nation’s new Commissioner of Labor Statistics.
Continue reading "Just Released: NY Fed’s Erica Groshen Becomes Commissioner of Labor Statistics" »
January 18, 2013
Historical Echoes: The Whimsical Side of Banking circa 1960
Megan Cohen
Modern-day banks provide many services to their customers: checking and savings accounts, mortgages, investment advice, and the like. On occasion, visitors might receive a pen or a travel mug, children a lollipop or a coloring book. However, the generous customer rewards of yore have all but disappeared.
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January 16, 2013
How Severe Was the Credit Cycle in the New York-Northern New Jersey Region?
Jaison R. Abel and Richard Deitz
U.S. households accumulated record-high levels of debt in the 2000s, and then began a process of deleveraging following the Great Recession and financial crisis. In some parts of the country, the rise and fall in household indebtedness was quite a bit sharper than in others. In this post, we highlight some of our research examining the magnitude of the recent credit cycle, and focus on how significant it’s been in New York State and northern New Jersey. Compared with the nation as a whole, we find that the region experienced a relatively mild credit cycle, although pockets of elevated household financial stress exist.
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Posted by Blog Author at 7:00 AM in Household Finance, Housing, New Jersey, New York, Regional Analysis | Permalink | Comments (0)January 14, 2013
China’s Impact on U.S. Inflation
Mary Amiti and Mark Choi
U.S. import prices of consumer goods shipped from China have been moderating in recent quarters, following an upward surge of 11 percent between mid-2010 and the end of 2011. These price changes have far-reaching consequences for U.S. businesses and consumers, because China is the largest single supplier of imports to the United States, accounting for more than 20 percent of nonoil imports and more than 30 percent of consumer goods. In this post, we track U.S. import price movements in different product categories from China by constructing import price indexes that use highly disaggregated data. We also explore various underlying factors that might explain these important trends.
Posted by Blog Author at 7:00 AM in Exchange Rates, Exports, International Economics, Macroecon, Wages | Permalink | Comments (0)January 11, 2013
Historical Echoes: Banking in Early Nineteenth-Century New England
Amy Farber
Old Sturbridge Village (OSV) is an historic site, a living museum located in Sturbridge, Massachusetts, that has a well-developed public website. Its page about banking in the early 1800s describes the Thompson Bank (see also video of exterior), which was constructed in the 1830s in Thompson, Connecticut, was a bank until 1893, and was disassembled and reassembled in 1963 to be part of the museum.
Continue reading "Historical Echoes: Banking in Early Nineteenth-Century New England" »
January 09, 2013
Ring-Fencing and "Financial Protectionism" in International Banking
Linda S. Goldberg and Arun Gupta
Some market watchers and academic researchers are concerned about a “Balkanization” of banking, owing to a sharp decline in cross-border international banking activity (see chart below), and an increased home bias of financial transactions. Meanwhile, policy and regulatory efforts are under consideration that may further induce banks to shift away from international activity, including ring-fencing of domestic banking operations, other forms of "financial protectionism," and enhanced oversight and prudential measures.
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Posted by Blog Author at 7:00 AM in Banks, Financial Institutions, International Economics, Liquidity, Regulation | Permalink | Comments (0)January 07, 2013
Making a Statement: How Did Professional Forecasters React to the August 2011 FOMC Statement?
Richard K. Crump, Stefano Eusepi, and Emanuel Moench
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) statement released on August 9, 2011, was the first to incorporate language on “forward guidance” with an explicit date tied to the Committee’s expected path of monetary policy. In this post, we exploit the timing of surveys taken before and after this statement’s release to investigate how professional forecasters changed their expectations of growth, inflation, and monetary policy. We find that the average forecast of the federal funds rate shifts considerably and closely aligns with the new language in the statement, while the average forecasts for growth and inflation change less. While there’s near unanimity among forecasters about the future path of the federal funds rate after the August 2011 FOMC statement, forecasters maintained differing views on the growth and inflation outlooks.
Posted by Blog Author at 7:00 AM in Expectations, FOMC, Macroecon, Monetary Policy | Permalink | Comments (0)January 04, 2013
Historical Echoes: The Origins of the Piggy Bank
Megan Cohen
Looking far back, all the way to the Middle Ages, people were in many ways very similar to those living today. Households acquired items of value, including currency. In those times, when the question of where to keep money arose, people didn’t typically have the option of a local bank. Instead, the answer oftentimes involved keeping their valuables in a vessel made of pygg.
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January 02, 2013
A “Reference Price Auction” to Buy or Sell Different Assets Simultaneously
Olivier Armantier
In finance, auctions are often conducted to buy or sell simultaneously various assets with very different characteristics. These auctions raise a number of challenges that cannot always be addressed with standard auction designs. In this post, I discuss an alternative design—the “reference price auction”—and present evidence that it may dominate other methods often implemented in practice.
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About the BlogLiberty Street Economics features insight and analysis from New York Fed economists working at the intersection of research and policy. Launched in 2011, the blog takes its name from the Bank’s headquarters at 33 Liberty Street in Manhattan’s Financial District.
The editors are Michael Fleming, Andrew Haughwout, Thomas Klitgaard, and Asani Sarkar, all economists in the Bank’s Research Group.
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