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5 posts from September 2019

September 30, 2019

The New York Fed DSGE Model Forecast—September 2019



This post presents an update of the economic forecasts generated by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model. We describe very briefly our forecast and its change since June 2019. As usual, we wish to remind our readers that the DSGE model forecast is not an official New York Fed forecast, but only an input to the Research staff’s overall forecasting process. For more information about the model and variables discussed here, see our DSGE model Q & A.

Continue reading "The New York Fed DSGE Model Forecast—September 2019" »

Posted by Blog Author at 7:00 AM in DSGE, Forecasting, Macroecon | Permalink | Comments (0)

September 25, 2019

Minimum Wage Impacts along the New York-Pennsylvania Border



Minimum Wage Impacts along the New York-Pennsylvania Border

The federal minimum wage, currently set at $7.25 per hour, has remained unchanged for the longest stretch of time since its 1938 inception under the Fair Labor Standards Act. With the real purchasing power of the federal minimum wage eroded by inflation, many states and municipalities have raised their local minimum wages. As of July 2019, fourteen states plus the District of Columbia—home to 35 percent of Americans—have minimum wages above $10 per hour, as do numerous localities scattered across other states. New York is among a handful of states—along with California, Connecticut, Illinois, Maryland, Massachusetts, and New Jersey—that has passed legislation to eventually increase minimum wages to $15 per hour. While New York began raising its minimum wage from $7.25 per hour in 2014, neighboring Pennsylvania has left its minimum wage unchanged at the federal floor. Minimum-wage variation between contiguous states has allowed researchers to evaluate the respective impacts on employment and average earnings. In this post, we gauge the effect of New York’s recent minimum-wage hikes by comparing low-wage sectors in counties along the New York-Pennsylvania border.

Continue reading "Minimum Wage Impacts along the New York-Pennsylvania Border" »

Posted by Blog Author at 7:00 AM in Employment, Labor Economics, Regional Analysis | Permalink | Comments (5)

September 23, 2019

Just Released: Transitions to Unemployment Tick Up in Latest SCE Labor Market Survey



Just Released: Transitions to Unemployment Tick Up in Latest SCE Labor Market Survey

The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s July 2019 SCE Labor Market Survey shows a year-over-year rise in employer-to-employer transitions as well as an increase in transitions into unemployment. Satisfaction with promotion opportunities and wage compensation was largely unchanged, while satisfaction with non-wage benefits retreated. Regarding expectations, the average expected wage offer (conditional on receiving one) and the average reservation wage—the lowest wage at which respondents would be willing to accept a new job—both increased. Expectations regarding job transitions were largely stable.

Continue reading "Just Released: Transitions to Unemployment Tick Up in Latest SCE Labor Market Survey" »

Posted by Blog Author at 11:00 AM in Labor Economics, Labor Market, Unemployment, Wages | Permalink | Comments (0)

Once Upon a Time in the Banking Sector: Historical Insights into Banking Competition



Once Upon a Time in the Banking Sector: Historical Insights into Banking Competition


How does competition among banks affect credit growth and real economic growth? In addition, how does it affect financial stability? In this blog post, we derive insights into this important set of questions from novel data on the U.S. banking system during the nineteenth century.

Continue reading "Once Upon a Time in the Banking Sector: Historical Insights into Banking Competition" »

Posted by Blog Author at 7:00 AM in Banks, Crisis, Economic History, Financial Institutions, Financial Intermediation | Permalink | Comments (0)

September 04, 2019

The Transmission of Monetary Policy and the Sophistication of Money Market Fund Investors



In December 2015, the Federal Reserve tightened monetary policy for the first time in almost ten years and, over the following three years, it raised interest rates eight more times, increasing the target range for the federal funds rate from 0-25 basis points (bps) to 225-250 bps. To what extent are changes in the fed funds rate transmitted to cash investors, and are there differences in the pass-through between retail and institutional investors? In this post, we describe the impact of recent rate increases on the yield paid by money market funds (MMFs) to their investors and show that the impact varies depending on investors’ sophistication.

Continue reading "The Transmission of Monetary Policy and the Sophistication of Money Market Fund Investors" »

Posted by Blog Author at 7:00 AM in Federal Reserve, Financial Institutions, Financial Intermediation, Monetary Policy | Permalink | Comments (3)

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Liberty Street Economics features insight and analysis from New York Fed economists working at the intersection of research and policy. Launched in 2011, the blog takes its name from the Bank’s headquarters at 33 Liberty Street in Manhattan’s Financial District.

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