-
About the
New York Fed -
Economic
Research -
Financial Institution Supervision
Liberty Street Economics
5 posts from December 2019December 20, 2019
The New York Fed DSGE Model Forecast—December 2019
This post presents an update of the economic forecasts generated by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model. We describe very briefly our forecast and its change since September 2019. As usual, we wish to remind our readers that the DSGE model forecast is not an official New York Fed forecast, but only an input to the Research staff’s overall forecasting process. For more information about the model and variables discussed here, see our DSGE model Q & A.
Continue reading "The New York Fed DSGE Model Forecast—December 2019 " »
December 18, 2019
Banking System Vulnerability: Annual Update
A key part of understanding the stability of the U.S. financial system is to monitor leverage and funding risks in the financial sector and the way in which these vulnerabilities interact to amplify negative shocks. In this post, we provide an update of four analytical models, introduced in a Liberty Street Economics post last year, that aim to capture different aspects of banking system vulnerability. Since their introduction, vulnerabilities as indicated by these models have increased moderately, continuing the slow but steady upward trend that started around 2016. Despite the recent increase, the overall level of vulnerabilities according to this analysis remains subdued and is still significantly smaller than before the financial crisis of 2008-09.
Continue reading "Banking System Vulnerability: Annual Update" »
Posted by Blog Author at 7:00 AM in Bank Capital, Banks, Financial Institutions, Financial Intermediation, Fire Sale, Liquidity, Systemic Risk | Permalink | Comments (0)December 17, 2019
Growth Has Slowed across the Region
At today’s regional economic press briefing, we highlighted some recent softening in the tri-state regional economy (New York, Northern New Jersey, and Fairfield County, Connecticut)—a noteworthy contrast from our briefing a year ago, when economic growth and job creation were fairly brisk. We also showed that Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands, which are part of the New York Fed’s district, both continue to face major challenges but have made significant economic progress following the catastrophic hurricanes of 2017.
December 16, 2019
Selection in Banking
Over the past thirty years, more than 2,900 U.S. banks have transformed from pure depository institutions into conglomerates involved in a broad range of business activities. What type of banks choose to become conglomerate organizations? In this post, we document that, from 1986 to 2018, such institutions had, on average, a higher return on equity in the three years prior to their decision to expand, as well as a lower level of risk overall. However, this superior pre-expansion performance diminishes over time, and all but disappears by the end of the 1990s.
Posted by Blog Author at 7:00 AM in Banks, Financial Institutions, Financial Intermediation | Permalink | Comments (0)December 13, 2019
Tariffs, Auto Loans, Rising College Costs, and Other Top LSE Posts of 2019
With each new Liberty Street Economics post, we aim to build familiarity with New York Fed research and policy analysis, and to share the expertise of our staff when it is relevant to the issues of the day. More than sixty economists contribute, and we tap coauthors from other central banks and academia as well, so the topics vary widely, covering the alphabet of “JEL Codes” in the economics literature plus numerous policy themes. Judging from our internet traffic, we have a core group that checks in to read nearly everything. Some posts break out to a wider public, prompted by news articles that cite our findings and even a mention in a presidential candidate’s tweet. Take a look at our top five most-read posts of 2019.
Continue reading "Tariffs, Auto Loans, Rising College Costs, and Other Top LSE Posts of 2019" »
Posted by Blog Author at 7:00 AM in Credit, Household Finance, Student Loans, Tariffs | Permalink | Comments (1)About the BlogLiberty Street Economics features insight and analysis from New York Fed economists working at the intersection of research and policy. Launched in 2011, the blog takes its name from the Bank’s headquarters at 33 Liberty Street in Manhattan’s Financial District.
The editors are Michael Fleming, Andrew Haughwout, Thomas Klitgaard, and Asani Sarkar, all economists in the Bank’s Research Group.
Liberty Street Economics does not publish new posts during the blackout periods surrounding Federal Open Market Committee meetings.
The views expressed are those of the authors, and do not necessarily reflect the position of the New York Fed or the Federal Reserve System.
Economic Research Tracker
Liberty Street Economics is now available on the iPhone® and iPad® and can be customized by economic research topic or economist.
View by Topicbank capital balance of payments banks central bank corporate finance covid-19 facilities credit crisis crisis chronicles cryptocurrencies currency current account dealers demographics dodd-frank dsge economic history education employment euro area exchange rates expectations exports fed funds federal reserve financial institutions financial intermediation financial markets fire sale fiscal policy fomc forecasting foreclosure great recession hey, economist! high frequency trading historical echoes household household finance housing human capital inequality inflation international economics labor economics labor market lender of last resort liquidity macroecon monetary policy mortgages new jersey new york new york city pandemic panic phillips curve puerto rico recession regional analysis regulation repo stocks student loans systemic risk tariffs treasury unemployment wagesMost Viewed1. 2. 3. 4. 5.
Last 12 Months1. 2. 3. 4. 5.Useful LinksComment GuidelinesWe encourage your comments and queries on our posts and will publish them (below the post) subject to the following guidelines:Please be brief: Comments are limited to 1500 characters.Please be quick: Comments submitted after COB on Friday will not be published until Monday morning.Please be aware: Comments submitted shortly before or during the FOMC blackout may not be published until after the blackout.Please be on-topic and patient: Comments are moderated and will not appear until they have been reviewed to ensure that they are substantive and clearly related to the topic of the post. We reserve the right not to post any comment, and will not post comments that are abusive, harassing, obscene, or commercial in nature. No notice will be given regarding whether a submission will or will not be posted.Disclosure PolicyThe LSE editors ask authors submitting a post to the blog to confirm that they have no conflicts of interest as defined by the American Economic Association in its Disclosure Policy. If an author has sources of financial support or other interests that could be perceived as influencing the research presented in the post, we disclose that fact in a statement prepared by the author and appended to the author information at the end of the post. If the author has no such interests to disclose, no statement is provided. Note, however, that we do indicate in all cases if a data vendor or other party has a right to review a post.Archives
RSS Feed