6 posts on "Phillips Curve"
June 17, 2022
The New York Fed DSGE Model Forecast—June 2022
This post presents an update of the economic forecasts generated by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model. We describe very briefly our forecast and its change since March 2022.
Posted at 9:00 am in DSGE, DSGE-Forecast, Forecasting, Inflation, Macroeconomics, Phillips Curve | Permalink
September 18, 2020
What’s Up with the Phillips Curve?
U.S. inflation used to rise during economic booms, as businesses charged higher prices to cope with increases in wages and other costs. When the economy cooled and joblessness rose, inflation declined. This pattern changed around 1990. Since then, U.S. inflation has been remarkably stable, even though economic activity and unemployment have continued to fluctuate. For example, during the Great Recession unemployment reached 10 percent, but inflation barely dipped below 1 percent. More recently, even with unemployment as low as 3.5 percent, inflation remained stuck under 2 percent. What explains the emergence of this disconnect between inflation and unemployment? This is the question we address in “What’s Up with the Phillips Curve?,” published recently in Brookings Papers on Economic Activity.
Posted at 7:00 am in DSGE, Inflation, Macroeconomics, Monetary Policy, Phillips Curve, Unemployment | Permalink | Comments (3)
September 23, 2015
How Much Do Inflation Expectations Matter for Inflation Dynamics?
Inflation dynamics are often described by some form of the Phillips curve.
Posted at 7:00 am in DSGE, Expectations, Inflation, Macroeconomics, Monetary Policy, Phillips Curve, Wages | Permalink
August 26, 2015
Mind the Gap: Assessing Labor Market Slack
Indicators of labor market slack enable economists to judge pressures on wages and prices.
Posted at 7:00 am in Labor Economics, Labor Market, Macroeconomics, Phillips Curve, Wages | Permalink | Comments (2)
July 14, 2014
High Unemployment and Disinflation in the Euro Area Periphery Countries
Thomas Klitgaard and Richard Peck
Economists often model inflation as dependent on inflation expectations and the level of economic slack, with changes in expectations or slack leading to changes in the inflation rate. The global slowdown and the subsequent sovereign debt crisis caused the greatest divergence in unemployment rates among euro area member countries since the monetary union was founded in 1999. The pronounced differences in economic performances of euro area countries since 2008 should have led to significant differences in price behavior. That turned out to be the case, with a strong correlation evident between disinflation and labor market deterioration in euro area countries
Posted at 7:00 am in Euro Area, Inflation, International Economics, Macroeconomics, Phillips Curve, Unemployment, Wages | Permalink
June 5, 2013
Drilling Down into Core Inflation: Goods versus Services
M. Henry Linder, Richard Peach, and Robert W. Rich Among the measures of core inflation used to monitor the inflation outlook, the series excluding food and energy prices is probably the best known and most closely followed by policymakers and the public. While the conventional “ex food and energy” measure is a composite of the price changes […]
Posted at 7:00 am in Forecasting, Macroeconomics, Monetary Policy, Phillips Curve, Unemployment | Permalink | Comments (3)
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