1.0Liberty Street Economicshttps://libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.orgblog authorhttps://libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/author/blog-author/rich600338<blockquote class="wp-embedded-content" data-secret="e1pJYWYwit"><a href="https://libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2012/04/conclusion-how-low-will-the-unemployment-rate-go/">Conclusion: How Low Will the Unemployment Rate Go?</a></blockquote><iframe sandbox="allow-scripts" security="restricted" src="https://libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2012/04/conclusion-how-low-will-the-unemployment-rate-go/embed/#?secret=e1pJYWYwit" width="600" height="338" title="“Conclusion: How Low Will the Unemployment Rate Go?” — Liberty Street Economics" data-secret="e1pJYWYwit" frameborder="0" marginwidth="0" marginheight="0" scrolling="no" class="wp-embedded-content"></iframe><script> /*! This file is auto-generated */ !function(d,l){"use strict";l.querySelector&&d.addEventListener&&"undefined"!=typeof URL&&(d.wp=d.wp||{},d.wp.receiveEmbedMessage||(d.wp.receiveEmbedMessage=function(e){var t=e.data;if((t||t.secret||t.message||t.value)&&!/[^a-zA-Z0-9]/.test(t.secret)){for(var s,r,n,a=l.querySelectorAll('iframe[data-secret="'+t.secret+'"]'),o=l.querySelectorAll('blockquote[data-secret="'+t.secret+'"]'),c=new RegExp("^https?:$","i"),i=0;i<o.length;i++)o[i].style.display="none";for(i=0;i<a.length;i++)s=a[i],e.source===s.contentWindow&&(s.removeAttribute("style"),"height"===t.message?(1e3<(r=parseInt(t.value,10))?r=1e3:~~r<200&&(r=200),s.height=r):"link"===t.message&&(r=new URL(s.getAttribute("src")),n=new URL(t.value),c.test(n.protocol))&&n.host===r.host&&l.activeElement===s&&(d.top.location.href=t.value))}},d.addEventListener("message",d.wp.receiveEmbedMessage,!1),l.addEventListener("DOMContentLoaded",function(){for(var e,t,s=l.querySelectorAll("iframe.wp-embedded-content"),r=0;r<s.length;r++)(t=(e=s[r]).getAttribute("data-secret"))||(t=Math.random().toString(36).substring(2,12),e.src+="#?secret="+t,e.setAttribute("data-secret",t)),e.contentWindow.postMessage({message:"ready",secret:t},"*")},!1)))}(window,document); </script> A major theme of the posts in our labor market series has been that the outflows from unemployment, either into employment or out of the labor force, have been the primary determinant of unemployment rate dynamics in long expansions.https://libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2012/04/6a01348793456c970c0168e971d94d970c-450wi.jpg