Liberty Street Economics
August 21, 2019

Online Estimation of DSGE Models

Our macroeconomists explain their approach for parallel and “online” estimation of DSGE models using sequential Monte Carlo techniques and share a GitHub link for obtaining their SMC Julia code.

Posted at 7:00 am in DSGE, Macroecon | Permalink | Comments (0)
August 14, 2019

Are U.S. Tariffs Turning Vietnam into an Export Powerhouse?

The imposition of Section 301 tariffs on about half of China’s exports to the United States has coincided with a fall in imports from China and gains for other countries. The U.S.-China trade conflict also appears to be accelerating an ongoing shift in foreign direct investment (FDI) from China to other emerging markets, particularly in Asia. Within the region, Vietnam is often cited as a clear beneficiary of these trends, a rising economy that could displace China, to some extent, in global supply chains. In this note, we examine the data and conclude that Vietnam is indeed gaining market share, but is too small to replace China anytime soon.

August 13, 2019

Just Released: Mind the Gap in Delinquency Rates

Total household debt balances increased by $192 billion in the second quarter of 2019, boosted primarily by a $162 billion gain in mortgage installment balances, according to the latest Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit from the New York Fed’s Center for Microeconomic Data (the mortgage installment balances exclude home equity lines of credit, which are reported separately and have been declining in balance for some time). The new mortgage total of $9.4 trillion is slightly higher than the previous high in mortgage balances from the third quarter of 2008 in nominal terms.

Posted at 11:00 am in Credit, Household Finance | Permalink | Comments (2)
August 7, 2019
About the Blog

Liberty Street Economics features insight and analysis from New York Fed economists working at the intersection of research and policy. Launched in 2011, the blog takes its name from the Bank’s headquarters at 33 Liberty Street in Manhattan’s Financial District.

The editors are Michael Fleming, Andrew Haughwout, Thomas Klitgaard, and Asani Sarkar, all economists in the Bank’s Research Group.

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