This post presents our quarterly update of the economic forecasts generated by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model. We describe very briefly our forecast and its change since February 2017. As usual, we wish to remind our readers that the DSGE model forecast is not an official New York Fed forecast, but only an input to the Research staff’s overall forecasting process. For more information about the model and variables discussed here, see our DSGE Model Q & A .
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Liberty Street EconomicsMay 31, 2017May 24, 2017Dealer Balance Sheets and Corporate Bond Liquidity Provision
Regulatory reforms since the financial crisis have sought to make the financial system safer and severe financial crises less likely.
May 22, 2017Measuring Trend Inflation with the Underlying Inflation Gauge
Consumers, financial market participants, and policymakers are particularly interested in the trend, or persistent, component of inflation.
May 19, 2017Hey, Economist! Is Now a Good Time to Be Graduating from College?
A Conversation with Jaison R. Abel and Richard Deitz With the 2017 college graduation season in full swing, we thought it would be helpful to take stock of the job prospects for recent college graduates. Is now a good time to be graduating from college? Publications editor Trevor Delaney caught up with Jaison Abel and […]
Posted at 7:00 am in Education, Hey, Economist!, Labor Economics, Student Loans, Unemployment | Permalink | Comments (2)May 17, 2017Household Borrowing in Historical Perspective
Today, the New York Fed’s Center for Microeconomic Data released its Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit for the first quarter of 2017.
May 15, 2017Do Credit Markets Watch the Waving Flag of Bankruptcy?
Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham explores how the lifting of bankruptcy flags affects borrowers’ credit scores and credit outcomes.
May 12, 2017At the N.Y. Fed: The Evolution of OTC Derivatives Markets
The 2007-09 financial crisis illustrated the fragility of over-the-counter (OTC) derivatives markets and the contagion generated through bilateral derivatives exposures.
Posted at 11:00 am in Bank Capital, Dodd-Frank, Financial Markets, Regulation, Systemic Risk | Permalink | Comments (0)May 11, 2017Just Released: 2017 SCE Housing Survey Finds Increased Optimism about Home Price Growth
The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s 2017 SCE Housing Survey indicates that expected home price growth over the next year has increased compared with twelve months earlier, and is at its highest level since the survey’s inception in 2014.
May 10, 2017Which Dealers Borrowed from the Fed’s Lender-of-Last-Resort Facilities?
During the 2007-08 financial crisis, the Fed established lending facilities designed to improve market functioning by providing liquidity to nondepository financial institutions—the first lending targeted to this group since the 1930s.
Posted at 7:00 am in Dealers, Federal Reserve, Fire Sale, Great Recession, Lender of Last Resort, Liquidity, Repo | Permalink | Comments (0)May 8, 2017Forecasting with Julia
A little more than a year ago, in this post, we announced DSGE.jl—a package for working with dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models using Julia, the open-source computing language. At that time, DSGE.jl contained only the code required to specify, solve, and estimate such models using Bayesian methods. Now, we have extended the package to provide the additional code needed to produce economic forecasts, counterfactual simulations, and inference on unobservable variables, such as the natural rate of interest or the output gap. The old, pre-Julia version of the code, which was written in MATLAB and is posted here on Github, a public repository hosting service, also performed some of these functions, but not quite as fast.
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