Liberty Street Economics
May 31, 2017

The New York Fed DSGE Model Forecast—May 2017

This post presents our quarterly update of the economic forecasts generated by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model. We describe very briefly our forecast and its change since February 2017. As usual, we wish to remind our readers that the DSGE model forecast is not an official New York Fed forecast, but only an input to the Research staff’s overall forecasting process. For more information about the model and variables discussed here, see our DSGE Model Q & A .

May 24, 2017

Dealer Balance Sheets and Corporate Bond Liquidity Provision

Regulatory reforms since the financial crisis have sought to make the financial system safer and severe financial crises less likely.

May 22, 2017

Measuring Trend Inflation with the Underlying Inflation Gauge

Consumers, financial market participants, and policymakers are particularly interested in the trend, or persistent, component of inflation.

May 19, 2017

Hey, Economist! Is Now a Good Time to Be Graduating from College?

A Conversation with Jaison R. Abel and Richard Deitz With the 2017 college graduation season in full swing, we thought it would be helpful to take stock of the job prospects for recent college graduates. Is now a good time to be graduating from college? Publications editor Trevor Delaney caught up with Jaison Abel and […]

May 17, 2017

Household Borrowing in Historical Perspective

Today, the New York Fed’s Center for Microeconomic Data released its Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit for the first quarter of 2017.

May 15, 2017

Do Credit Markets Watch the Waving Flag of Bankruptcy?

Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham explores how the lifting of bankruptcy flags affects borrowers’ credit scores and credit outcomes.

Posted at 7:00 am in Credit, Household Finance | Permalink | Comments (0)
May 12, 2017

At the N.Y. Fed: The Evolution of OTC Derivatives Markets

The 2007-09 financial crisis illustrated the fragility of over-the-counter (OTC) derivatives markets and the contagion generated through bilateral derivatives exposures.

May 11, 2017

Just Released: 2017 SCE Housing Survey Finds Increased Optimism about Home Price Growth

The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s 2017 SCE Housing Survey indicates that expected home price growth over the next year has increased compared with twelve months earlier, and is at its highest level since the survey’s inception in 2014.

Posted at 11:00 am in Household Finance | Permalink | Comments (2)
May 10, 2017

Which Dealers Borrowed from the Fed’s Lender-of-Last-Resort Facilities?

During the 2007-08 financial crisis, the Fed established lending facilities designed to improve market functioning by providing liquidity to nondepository financial institutions—the first lending targeted to this group since the 1930s.

May 8, 2017

Forecasting with Julia

A little more than a year ago, in this post, we announced DSGE.jl—a package for working with dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models using Julia, the open-source computing language. At that time, DSGE.jl contained only the code required to specify, solve, and estimate such models using Bayesian methods. Now, we have extended the package to provide the additional code needed to produce economic forecasts, counterfactual simulations, and inference on unobservable variables, such as the natural rate of interest or the output gap. The old, pre-Julia version of the code, which was written in MATLAB and is posted here on Github, a public repository hosting service, also performed some of these functions, but not quite as fast.

Posted at 7:00 am in DSGE, Forecasting | Permalink | Comments (1)
About the Blog

Liberty Street Economics features insight and analysis from New York Fed economists working at the intersection of research and policy. Launched in 2011, the blog takes its name from the Bank’s headquarters at 33 Liberty Street in Manhattan’s Financial District.

The editors are Michael Fleming, Andrew Haughwout, Thomas Klitgaard, and Asani Sarkar, all economists in the Bank’s Research Group.

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