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61 posts on "Credit"

December 22, 2020

How Does Zombie Credit Affect Inflation? Lessons from Europe



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Even after the unprecedented stimulus by central banks in Europe following the global financial crisis, Europe’s economic growth and inflation have remained depressed, consistently undershooting projections. In a striking resemblance to Japan’s “lost decades,” the European economy has been recently characterized by persistently low interest rates and the provision of cheap bank credit to impaired firms, or “zombie credit.” In this post, based on a recent staff report, we propose a “zombie credit channel” that links the rise of zombie credit to dis-inflationary pressures.

Continue reading "How Does Zombie Credit Affect Inflation? Lessons from Europe" »

Posted by Blog Author at 7:00 AM in Credit, Financial Intermediation | Permalink | Comments (0)

December 01, 2020

The Costs of Corporate Debt Overhang Following the COVID-19 Outbreak



The Costs of Corporate Debt Overhang Following the COVID-19 Outbreak


Leading up to the COVID-19 outbreak, there were growing concerns about corporate sector indebtedness. High levels of borrowing may give rise to a “debt overhang” problem, particularly during downturns, whereby firms forego good investment opportunities because of an inability to raise additional funding. In this post, we show that firms with high levels of borrowing at the onset of the Great Recession underperformed in the following years, compared to similar—but less indebted—firms. These findings, together with early data on the revenue contractions following the COVID-19 outbreak, suggest that debt overhang during the COVID-recession could lead to an up to 10 percent decrease in growth for firms in industries most affected by the economic repercussions of the battle against the outbreak.

Continue reading "The Costs of Corporate Debt Overhang Following the COVID-19 Outbreak" »

Posted by Blog Author at 7:00 AM in Corporate Finance, Credit, Crisis, Pandemic | Permalink | Comments (1)

October 21, 2020

Bank Capital, Loan Liquidity, and Credit Standards since the Global Financial Crisis



LSE_Bank Capital, Loan Liquidity, and Credit Standards since the Global Financial Crisis

Did the 2007-09 financial crisis or the regulatory reforms that followed alter how banks change their underwriting standards over the course of the business cycle? We provide some simple, “narrative” evidence on that question by studying the reasons banks cite when they report a change in commercial credit standards in the Federal Reserve’s Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey. We find that the economic outlook, risk tolerance, and other real factors generally drive standards more than financial factors such as bank capital and loan market liquidity. Those financial factors have mattered more since the crisis, however, and their importance increased further as post-crisis reforms were phased in in the middle of the following decade.

Continue reading "Bank Capital, Loan Liquidity, and Credit Standards since the Global Financial Crisis" »

Posted by Blog Author at 7:00 AM in Bank Capital, Banks, Credit, Crisis, Liquidity, Regulation | Permalink | Comments (0)

October 16, 2020

How Do Consumers Believe the Pandemic Will Affect the Economy and Their Households?



How Do Consumers Believe the Pandemic Will Affect the Economy and Their Households?

In this post we analyze consumer beliefs about the duration of the economic impact of the pandemic and present new evidence on their expected spending, income, debt delinquency, and employment outcomes, conditional on different scenarios for the future path of the pandemic. We find that between June and August respondents to the New York Fed Survey of Consumer Expectations (SCE) have grown less optimistic about the pandemic’s economic consequences ending in the near future and also about the likelihood of feeling comfortable in crowded places within the next three months. Although labor market expectations of respondents differ considerably across fairly extreme scenarios for the evolution of the COVID pandemic, the difference in other economic outcomes across scenarios appear relatively moderate on average. There is, however, substantial heterogeneity in these economic outcomes and some vulnerable groups (for example, lower income, non-white) appear considerably more exposed to the evolution of the pandemic.

Continue reading "How Do Consumers Believe the Pandemic Will Affect the Economy and Their Households?" »

August 19, 2020

Debt Relief and the CARES Act: Which Borrowers Face the Most Financial Strain?



Debt Relief and the CARES Act: Which Borrowers Face the Most Financial Strain?

In yesterday's post, we studied the expected debt relief from the CARES Act on mortgagors and student debt borrowers. We now turn our attention to the 63 percent of American borrowers who do not have a mortgage or student loan. These borrowers will not directly benefit from the loan forbearance provisions of the CARES Act, although they may be able to receive some types of leniency that many lenders have voluntarily provided. We ask who these borrowers are, by age, geography, race and income, and how does their financial health compare with other borrowers.

Continue reading "Debt Relief and the CARES Act: Which Borrowers Face the Most Financial Strain?" »

Posted by Blog Author at 7:00 AM in Credit, Demographics, Household Finance, Inequality, Pandemic | Permalink | Comments (0)

July 08, 2020

Who Has Been Evicted and Why?



LSE_Who Has Been Evicted and Why?

More than two million American households are at risk of eviction every year. Evictions have been found to cause prolonged homelessness, worsened health conditions, and lack of credit access. During the COVID-19 outbreak, governments at all levels implemented eviction moratoriums to keep renters in their homes. As these moratoriums and enhanced income supports for unemployed workers come to an end, the possibility of a wave of evictions in the second half of the year is drawing increased attention. Despite the importance of evictions and related policies, very few economic studies have been done on this topic. With the exception of the Milwaukee Area Renters Study, evictions are rarely measured in economic surveys. To fill this gap, we conducted a novel national survey on evictions within the Housing Module of the Survey of Consumer Expectations (SCE) in 2019 and 2020. This post describes our findings.

Continue reading "Who Has Been Evicted and Why?" »

Posted by Blog Author at 7:15 AM in Credit, Housing, Inequality | Permalink | Comments (0)

May 19, 2020

The Primary Dealer Credit Facility



The Primary Dealer Credit Facility

This post is part of an ongoing series on the credit and liquidity facilities established by the Federal Reserve to support households and businesses during the COVID-19 outbreak.

On March 17, 2020, the Federal Reserve announced that it would re-establish the Primary Dealer Credit Facility (PDCF) to allow primary dealers to support smooth market functioning and facilitate the availability of credit to businesses and households. The PDCF started offering overnight and term funding with maturities of up to ninety days on March 20. It will be in place for at least six months and may be extended as conditions warrant. In this post, we provide an overview of the PDCF and its usage to date.

Continue reading "The Primary Dealer Credit Facility" »

May 08, 2020

The Money Market Mutual Fund Liquidity Facility



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This post is part of an ongoing series on the credit and liquidity facilities established by the Federal Reserve to support households and businesses during the COVID-19 outbreak.

Over the first three weeks of March, as uncertainty surrounding the COVID-19 pandemic increased, prime and municipal (muni) money market funds (MMFs) faced large redemption pressures. Similarly to past episodes of industry dislocation, such as the 2008 financial crisis and the 2011 European bank crisis, outflows from prime and muni MMFs were mirrored by large inflows into government MMFs, which have historically been seen by investors as a safe haven in times of crisis. In this post, we describe a liquidity facility established by the Federal Reserve in response to these outflows.

Continue reading "The Money Market Mutual Fund Liquidity Facility" »

May 06, 2020

Where Have the Paycheck Protection Loans Gone So Far?



Where Have the Paycheck Protection Loans Gone So Far?

The Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) is a central piece of the CARES Act. In the program’s first round, $349 billion in forgivable government-guaranteed loans were extended to small businesses to cover costs related to payroll and utilities, as well as mortgage and rent payments. The program opened for applications on April 3 and was oversubscribed by April 16. Because of its popularity, lawmakers passed a new bill replenishing the fund with another $310 billion and the Small Business Administration (SBA) started approving loans again on April 27. With a new round of PPP lending underway, it is natural to examine the allocation of credit in the first round and ask: Have PPP loans gone to the areas of the country and sectors of the economy hardest hit by COVID-19?

Continue reading "Where Have the Paycheck Protection Loans Gone So Far?" »

Posted by Blog Author at 7:00 AM in Credit | Permalink | Comments (3)

March 04, 2020

How Does Credit Access Affect Job-Search Outcomes and Sorting?



How Does Credit Access Affect Job-Search Outcomes and Sorting?

How does access to consumer credit affect the job finding behavior of displaced workers? Are these workers looking for jobs at larger and more productive firms? What is the impact of consumer credit on the amount of time it takes to find a job? In recent work with Ethan Cohen-Cole we explore these questions by building a new data set of individual credit reports (from TransUnion) merged with administrative earnings data. We describe our approach and our results in this post.

Continue reading "How Does Credit Access Affect Job-Search Outcomes and Sorting?" »

Posted by Blog Author at 7:45 AM in Credit, Inequality, Labor Market, Unemployment | Permalink | Comments (0)
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