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40 posts on "DSGE"

September 18, 2020

What’s Up with the Phillips Curve?



U.S. inflation used to rise during economic booms, as businesses charged higher prices to cope with increases in wages and other costs. When the economy cooled and joblessness rose, inflation declined. This pattern changed around 1990. Since then, U.S. inflation has been remarkably stable, even though economic activity and unemployment have continued to fluctuate. For example, during the Great Recession unemployment reached 10 percent, but inflation barely dipped below 1 percent. More recently, even with unemployment as low as 3.5 percent, inflation remained stuck under 2 percent. What explains the emergence of this disconnect between inflation and unemployment? This is the question we address in “What’s Up with the Phillips Curve?,” published recently in Brookings Papers on Economic Activity.

Continue reading "What’s Up with the Phillips Curve?" »

June 19, 2020

The New York Fed DSGE Model Forecast—June 2020



Editor’s note: The release of the March 2020 DSGE forecast was postponed as New York Fed economists shifted their focus to the COVID-19 pandemic. In conjunction with the release of the June 2020 forecast, we’ve decided to post the March 2020 forecast for the record as well.

Continue reading "The New York Fed DSGE Model Forecast—June 2020" »

Posted by Blog Author at 7:02 AM in DSGE, Forecasting, Macroecon | Permalink | Comments (2)

December 20, 2019

The New York Fed DSGE Model Forecast—December 2019



This post presents an update of the economic forecasts generated by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model. We describe very briefly our forecast and its change since September 2019. As usual, we wish to remind our readers that the DSGE model forecast is not an official New York Fed forecast, but only an input to the Research staff’s overall forecasting process. For more information about the model and variables discussed here, see our DSGE model Q & A.

Continue reading "The New York Fed DSGE Model Forecast—December 2019 " »

Posted by Blog Author at 7:00 AM in DSGE, Forecasting, Macroecon | Permalink | Comments (0)

September 30, 2019

The New York Fed DSGE Model Forecast—September 2019



This post presents an update of the economic forecasts generated by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model. We describe very briefly our forecast and its change since June 2019. As usual, we wish to remind our readers that the DSGE model forecast is not an official New York Fed forecast, but only an input to the Research staff’s overall forecasting process. For more information about the model and variables discussed here, see our DSGE model Q & A.

Continue reading "The New York Fed DSGE Model Forecast—September 2019" »

Posted by Blog Author at 7:00 AM in DSGE, Forecasting, Macroecon | Permalink | Comments (0)

August 21, 2019

Online Estimation of DSGE Models



The estimation of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models is a computationally demanding task. As these models change to address new challenges (such as household and firm heterogeneity, the lower bound on nominal interest rates, and occasionally binding financial constraints), they become even more complex and difficult to estimate—so much so that current estimation procedures are no longer up to the task. This post discusses a new technique for estimating these models which belongs to the class of sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) algorithms, an approach we employ to estimate the New York Fed DSGE model. To learn more, check out this paper of ours.

Continue reading "Online Estimation of DSGE Models" »

Posted by Blog Author at 7:00 AM in DSGE, Macroecon | Permalink | Comments (0)

June 21, 2019

The New York Fed DSGE Model Forecast—June 2019



This post presents an update of the economic forecasts generated by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model. We describe very briefly our forecast and its change since January 2019. As usual, we wish to remind our readers that the DSGE model forecast is not an official New York Fed forecast, but only an input to the Research staff’s overall forecasting process. For more information about the model and variables discussed here, see our DSGE model Q & A.

Continue reading "The New York Fed DSGE Model Forecast—June 2019" »

Posted by Blog Author at 7:00 AM in DSGE, Forecasting, Macroecon | Permalink | Comments (0)

February 08, 2019

The New York Fed DSGE Model Forecast—January 2019



This post presents an update of the economic forecasts generated by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model. We describe very briefly our forecast and its change since October 2018. As usual, we wish to remind our readers that the DSGE model forecast is not an official New York Fed forecast, but only an input to the Research staff’s overall forecasting process. For more information about the model and variables discussed here, see our DSGE model Q & A.

Continue reading "The New York Fed DSGE Model Forecast—January 2019" »

Posted by Blog Author at 11:00 AM in DSGE, Forecasting, Macroecon | Permalink | Comments (0)

October 24, 2018

The New York Fed DSGE Model Forecast—October 2018



This post presents an update of the economic forecasts generated by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model. We describe very briefly our forecast and its change since July 2018. As usual, we wish to remind our readers that the DSGE model forecast is not an official New York Fed forecast, but only an input to the Research staff’s overall forecasting process. For more information about the model and variables discussed here, see our DSGE model Q & A.

Continue reading "The New York Fed DSGE Model Forecast—October 2018" »

Posted by Blog Author at 7:00 AM in DSGE, Forecasting, Macroecon | Permalink | Comments (0)

July 13, 2018

The New York Fed DSGE Model Forecast–July 2018



This post presents an update of the economic forecasts generated by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model. We describe very briefly our forecast and its change since March 2018. As usual, we wish to remind our readers that the DSGE model forecast is not an official New York Fed forecast, but only an input to the Research staff’s overall forecasting process. For more information about the model and variables discussed here, see our DSGE model Q & A.

Continue reading "The New York Fed DSGE Model Forecast–July 2018" »

Posted by Blog Author at 7:00 AM in DSGE, Forecasting, Macroecon | Permalink | Comments (0)

May 09, 2018

Forecasts of the Lost Recovery



The years following the Great Recession were challenging for forecasters for a variety of reasons, including an unprecedented policy environment. This post, based on our recently released working paper, documents the real-time forecasting performance of the New York Fed dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model in the wake of the Great Recession. We show that the model’s predictive accuracy was on par with that of private forecasters and proved to be quite a bit better, at least in terms of GDP growth, than that of the median forecasts from the Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) Summary of Economic Projections (SEP).

Continue reading "Forecasts of the Lost Recovery" »

Posted by Blog Author at 7:00 AM in DSGE, Forecasting | Permalink | Comments (0)
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