Liberty Street Economics

March 21, 2025

The New York Fed DSGE Model Forecast—March 2025

Marco Del Negro, Ibrahima Diagne, Pranay Gundam, Donggyu Lee, and Brian Pacula

decorative photo of line and bar chart over data

This post presents an update of the economic forecasts generated by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model. We describe very briefly our forecast and its change since December 2024. As usual, we wish to remind our readers that the DSGE model forecast is not an official New York Fed forecast, but only an input to the Research staff’s overall forecasting process. For more information about the model and variables discussed here, see our DSGE model Q & A.

Posted at 9:00 am in DSGE | Permalink | Comments (0)

March 6, 2025

When the Household Pie Shrinks, Who Gets Their Slice?

Jacob Conway, Natalia Fischl-Lanzoni, and Matthew Plosser

Image: Write some checks to make payments for household expenses

When households face budgetary constraints, they may encounter bills and debts that they cannot pay. Unlike corporate credit, which typically includes cross-default triggers, households can be delinquent on a specific debt without repercussions from their other lenders. Hence, households can choose which creditors are paid. Analyzing these choices helps economists and investors better understand the strategic incentives of households and the risks of certain classes of credit.

Posted at 7:00 am in Credit, Household Finance | Permalink | Comments (0)

March 5, 2025

Firms’ Inflation Expectations Have Picked Up

Jaison R. Abel, Richard Deitz, and Ben Hyman

Editors note: Since this post was published, we clarified language in the first paragraph about year-ahead expectations for manufacturing and service firms in the 2025 survey. We also corrected the y-axis range of Chart 2. (March 5, 11 a.m.)

Photo of a car mechanic handing a woman customer a card reader in order to have her pay with credit card. She is placing her credit card on the reader.

After a period of particularly high inflation following the pandemic recession, inflationary pressures have been moderating the past few years. Indeed, the inflation rate as measured by the consumer price index has come down from a peak of 9.1 percent in the summer of 2022 to 3 percent at the beginning of 2025. The New York Fed asked regional businesses about their own cost and price increases in February, as well as their expectations for future inflation. Service firms reported that business cost and selling price increases continued to moderate through 2024, while manufacturing firms reported some pickup in cost increases but not price increases. Looking ahead, firms expect both cost and price increases to move higher in 2025. Moreover, year-ahead inflation expectations have risen from 3 percent last year at this time to 3.5 among manufacturing firms and 4 percent among service firms, though longer-term inflation expectations remain anchored at around 3 percent.

Posted at 9:00 am in Inflation, Regional Analysis, Tariffs | Permalink | Comments (0)

March 3, 2025

Comparing Apples to Apples: “Synthetic Real‑Time” Estimates of R‑Star

Sophia Cho and John C. Williams

Photo of two apples on a seesaw that is horizontally stable; one is red with two bright green leaves sticking up off the stem; the other is a green apple with stem and no leaves. On a light green background.

Estimates of the natural rate of interest, commonly called “r-star,” garner a great deal of attention among economists, central bankers, and financial market participants. The natural interest rate is the real (inflation-adjusted) interest rate expected to prevail when supply and demand in the economy are in balance and inflation is stable. The natural rate cannot be measured directly but must be inferred from other data. When assessing estimates of r-star, it is important to distinguish between real-time estimates and retrospective estimates. Real-time estimates answer the question: “What is the value of r-star based on the information available at the time?” Meanwhile, retrospective estimates answer the question: “What was r-star at some point in the past, based on the information available today?” Although the latter question may be of historical interest, the former question is typically more relevant in practice, whether in financial markets or central banks. Thus, given their different nature, comparing real-time and retrospective estimates is like comparing apples to oranges. In this Liberty Street Economics post, we address this issue by creating new “synthetic real-time” estimates of r-star in the U.S. for the Laubach-Williams (2003) and Holston-Laubach-Williams (2017) models, using vintage datasets. These estimates enable apples-to-apples comparisons of the behavior of real-time r-star estimates over the past quarter century.

Posted at 2:00 pm in Inflation, Macroeconomics | Permalink | Comments (0)

February 28, 2025

Kartik Athreya on His First Year as Research Director of the New York Fed

A year has passed since Kartik Athreya became director of research at the New York Fed. To get some perspective on his experience thus far, we caught up with Kartik and asked about his views on economics, the role of Research at the Bank, and his take on a few of the hot topics of the day.

Posted at 7:00 am in Central Bank, Hey, Economist! | Permalink | Comments (0)

February 27, 2025

Supply and Demand Drivers of Global Inflation Trends

Ozge Akinci, Martin Almuzara, Silvia Miranda-Agrippino, Ramya Nallamotu, Argia Sbordone, Greg Simitian, and William Zeng

decorative illustration of shopping cart with globe inside.

Our previous post identified strong global components in the slow-moving and persistent dynamics of headline consumer price index (CPI) inflation in the U.S. and abroad. We labeled these global components as the Global Inflation Trend (GIT), the Core Goods Global Inflation Trend (CG-GIT) and the Food & Energy Global Inflation Trend (FE-GIT). In this post we offer a narrative of the drivers of these global inflation trends in terms of shocks that induce a trade-off for monetary policy, versus those that do not. We show that most of the surge in the persistent component of inflation across countries is accounted for by global supply shocks—that is, shocks that induce a trade-off for central banks between their objectives of output and inflation stabilization. Global demand shocks have become more prevalent since 2022. However, had central banks tried to fully offset the inflationary pressures due to sustained demand, this would have resulted in a much more severe global economic contraction.

Posted at 9:01 am in Inflation, International Economics, Macroeconomics | Permalink | Comments (0)

Global Trends in U.S. Inflation Dynamics

Ozge Akinci, Martin Almuzara, Silvia Miranda-Agrippino, Ramya Nallamotu, Argia Sbordone, Greg Simitian, and William Zeng

A key feature of the post-pandemic inflation surge was the strong correlation among inflation rates across sectors in the United States. This phenomenon, however, was not confined to the U.S. economy, as similar inflationary pressures have emerged in other advanced economies. As generalized as the inflation surge was, so was its decline from the mid-2022 peak. This post explores the common features of inflation patterns in the U.S. and abroad using an extension of the Multivariate Core Trend (MCT) Inflation model, our underlying inflation tracker for the U.S. The Global MCT model purges transitory noise from international sectoral inflation data and quantifies the covariation of their persistent components—in the form of global inflation trends—along both country and sectoral dimensions. We find that global trends play a dominant role in determining the slow-moving and persistent dynamics of headline consumer price index (CPI) inflation in the U.S. and abroad, both over the pre-pandemic and post pandemic samples.

Posted at 9:00 am in Inflation, International Economics, Macroeconomics | Permalink | Comments (0)

February 26, 2025

U.S. Imports from China Have Fallen by Less Than U.S. Data Indicate

Hunter L. Clark

Photo: Workers assembly of notebook computer at a factory in Hefei city,Anhui Province,China.

With new tariffs on China back in the headlines, this post seeks to offer some perspective on how much China’s exports have really been affected by multiple rounds of U.S. tariffs and export restrictions over the past seven years. The key takeaway is that U.S. imports from China have decreased by much less than has been reported in official U.S. statistics. As a result, the recent tariff increase on China could have a larger impact on the U.S. economy than is suggested by official U.S. data on the China import share, especially if favorable tariff treatment for direct-to-consumer imports is ended.

Posted at 7:00 am in Exports, Tariffs | Permalink | Comments (0)

February 14, 2025

How Censorship Resistant Are Decentralized Systems?

Jon Durfee and Michael Lee

photo illustration of block chain in shades of teal green.

Public permissionless blockchains are designed to be censorship resistant, meaning access to the blockchain is unhampered. In practice, different blockchain ecosystem actors (such as users, builders, or proposers) can influence the degree to which a blockchain is resistant to censorship. In a recent Staff Report, we examine how sanctions imposed by the Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) on Tornado Cash, a set of noncustodial cryptocurrency smart contracts on Ethereum, affected Tornado Cash and the broader Ethereum network. In this post, we summarize findings regarding sanction cooperation at the settlement layer by “block proposers”—a set of settlement actors specifically responsible for selecting new blocks to add to the blockchain.

Posted at 7:00 am in Cryptocurrencies, Regulation | Permalink

February 13, 2025

Breaking Down Auto Loan Performance

Andrew Haughwout, Donghoon Lee, Daniel Mangrum, Joelle Scally, and Wilbert van der Klaauw

photo of traffic with cars stretching into the distance.

Debt balances continued to rise at a moderate pace in the fourth quarter of 2024, and delinquencies, particularly for auto loans and credit cards, remained elevated, according to the latest Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit from the New York Fed’s Center for Microeconomic Data. Auto loan balances have grown steadily since 2011, expanding by $48 billion in 2024. This increase reflects a steady inflow of newly originated auto loan balances, which in 2024 were boosted primarily by originations to very prime borrowers (those with credit scores over 760) while originations to borrowers with midprime and subprime scores held roughly steady. In this post, we take a closer look at auto loan performance and find that delinquencies have been rising across credit score bands and area income levels. We also break down auto loan performance by lender type and find that delinquencies are primarily concentrated in loans from non-captive auto finance companies.

Posted at 11:00 am in Household Finance | Permalink | Comments (2)

Markets & Policy Implementation

Liberty Street Economics

The New York Fed DSGE Model Forecast—March 2025

When the Household Pie Shrinks, Who Gets Their Slice?

Firms’ Inflation Expectations Have Picked Up

Comparing Apples to Apples: “Synthetic Real‑Time” Estimates of R‑Star

Kartik Athreya on His First Year as Research Director of the New York Fed

Supply and Demand Drivers of Global Inflation Trends

Global Trends in U.S. Inflation Dynamics

U.S. Imports from China Have Fallen by Less Than U.S. Data Indicate

How Censorship Resistant Are Decentralized Systems?

Breaking Down Auto Loan Performance

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