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141 posts on "Monetary Policy"

March 25, 2019

Deciphering Americans’ Views on Cryptocurrencies



LSE_2019_crytocurrencies-perception_martin_460_art

Having witnessed the dramatic rise and fall in the value of cryptocurrencies over the past year, we wanted to learn more about what motivates people to participate in this market. To find out, we included a special set of questions in the May 2018 Survey of Consumer Expectations, a project of the New York Fed’s Center for Microeconomic Data. This blog post summarizes the results of that survey, shedding light on U.S. consumers’ depth of participation in cryptocurrencies and their motives for entering this new market.

Continue reading "Deciphering Americans’ Views on Cryptocurrencies" »

March 04, 2019

The Sensitivity of Long-Term Interest Rates: A Tale of Two Frequencies



LSE_The Sensitivity of Long-Term Interest Rates: A Tale of Two Frequencies

The sensitivity of long-term interest rates to short-term interest rates is a central feature of the yield curve. This post, which draws on our Staff Report, shows that long- and short-term rates co-move to a surprising extent at high frequencies (over daily or monthly periods). However, since 2000, they co-move far less at lower frequencies (over six months or a year). We discuss potential explanations for this finding and its implications for the transmission of monetary policy.

Continue reading "The Sensitivity of Long-Term Interest Rates: A Tale of Two Frequencies" »

Posted by Blog Author at 7:00 AM in Financial Markets, Macroecon, Monetary Policy | Permalink | Comments (1)

February 27, 2019

Global Trends in Interest Rates



LSE_2019_Global Trends in Interest Rates

Long-term government bond yields are at their lowest levels of the past 150 years in advanced economies. In this blog post, we argue that this low-interest-rate environment reflects secular global forces that have lowered real interest rates by about two percentage points over the past forty years. The magnitude of this decline has been nearly the same in all advanced economies, since their real interest rates have converged over this period. The key factors behind this development are an increase in demand for safety and liquidity among investors and a slowdown in global economic growth.

Continue reading "Global Trends in Interest Rates" »

August 08, 2018

How Do the Fed’s MBS Holdings Affect the Economy?



LSE_How Do the Fed’s MBS Holdings Affect the Economy?

In our previous post, we discussed the meaning of the term “credit allocation” and how it relates to the Federal Reserve’s holdings of agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS). We concluded that the Fed’s MBS holdings do not pose significant credit risk but that the Fed does influence the relative market price of credit when it purchases agency MBS, and this indirectly influences decisions by investors. Today, we take the next step and discuss how the Fed’s MBS purchases affect the U.S. economy and, in particular, how the effect of MBS purchases can differ from the effect of purchases of Treasury securities.

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Posted by Blog Author at 7:00 AM in Bank Capital, Federal Reserve, Monetary Policy | Permalink | Comments (2)

August 06, 2018

How Do the Fed's MBS Purchases Affect Credit Allocation?



LSE_How Do the Fed's MBS Purchases Affect Credit Allocation?

It is sometimes said that the Federal Reserve should not engage in “credit allocation.” But what does credit allocation actually mean? And how do current Fed policies affect the allocation of credit? In this post, we describe two separate ideas often associated with credit allocation. The first idea is that the Fed should not take credit risk, which taxpayers would ultimately have to bear. The second idea is that the Fed’s actions should not influence the flow of credit to particular sectors. We consider whether the Fed’s holdings of agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS) could affect the allocation of credit. In a companion post, we discuss how the economic effects of the Fed’s MBS holdings compare with the economic effects of more traditional holdings.

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Posted by Blog Author at 7:00 AM in Central Bank, Federal Reserve, Monetary Policy | Permalink | Comments (0)

July 11, 2018

Size Is Not All: Distribution of Bank Reserves and Fed Funds Dynamics



LSE_2018_Size Is Not All: Distribution of Bank Reserves and Fed Funds Dynamics

As a consequence of the Federal Reserve’s large-scale asset purchases from 2008-14, banks’ reserve balances at the Fed have increased dramatically, rising from $10 billion in March 2008 to more than $2 trillion currently. In that new environment of abundant reserves, the FOMC put in place a framework for controlling the fed funds rate, using the interest rate that it offered to banks and a different, lower interest rate that it offered to non-banks (and banks). Now that the Fed has begun to gradually reduce its asset holdings, aggregate reserves are shrinking as well, and an important question becomes: How does a change in the level of aggregate reserves affect trading in the fed funds market? In our recent paper, we show that the answer depends not just on the aggregate size of reserve balances, as is sometimes assumed, but also on how reserves are distributed among banks. In particular, we show that a measure of the typical trade in the market known as the effective fed funds rate (EFFR) could rise above the rate paid on banks’ reserve balances if reserves remain heavily concentrated at just a few banks.

Note: This analysis provides insight into how the fed funds market might react to changes in the aggregate level of bank reserves. However, as it does not account for all relevant factors, it should not be construed as an analysis of any specific time period. In particular, our analysis does not incorporate the technical adjustment introduced by the FOMC on June 13 that lowered the interest paid on banks' reserves relative to the top of the target range.

Continue reading "Size Is Not All: Distribution of Bank Reserves and Fed Funds Dynamics" »

Posted by Blog Author at 7:00 AM in Banks, Central Bank, Fed Funds, Monetary Policy | Permalink | Comments (0)

June 01, 2018

Hey, Economist! Outgoing New York Fed President Bill Dudley on FOMC Preparation and Thinking Like an Economist

LSE_2018.06.01-LSE-Dudley_920x576

Bill Dudley will soon turn over the keys to the vault—so to speak. But before his tenure ends after nine years as president of the New York Fed, Liberty Street Economics sought to capture his parting reflections on economic research, FOMC preparation, and leadership. Publications editor Trevor Delaney recently caught up with Dudley. This transcript has been lightly edited.

Continue reading "Hey, Economist! Outgoing New York Fed President Bill Dudley on FOMC Preparation and Thinking Like an Economist" »

Posted by Blog Author at 7:00 AM in Banks, Federal Reserve, Hey, Economist!, Monetary Policy | Permalink | Comments (0)

February 09, 2018

Hey, Economist! What Do Cryptocurrencies Have to Do with Trust?



LSE_Hey, Economist!  What Do Cryptocurrencies Have to Do with Trust?


Bitcoin and other “cryptocurrencies” have been much in the news lately, in part because of their wild gyrations in value. Michael Lee and Antoine Martin, economists in the New York Fed’s Money and Payment Studies function, have been following cryptocurrencies and agreed to answer some questions about digital money.

Continue reading "Hey, Economist! What Do Cryptocurrencies Have to Do with Trust?" »

February 07, 2018

A DSGE Perspective on Safety, Liquidity, and Low Interest Rates



Third of three posts
LSE_A DSGE Perspective on Safety, Liquidity, and Low Interest Rates

The preceding two posts in this series documented that interest rates on safe and liquid assets, such as U.S. Treasury securities, have declined significantly in the past twenty years. Of course, short-term interest rates in the United States are under the control of the Federal Reserve, at least in nominal terms. So it is legitimate to ask, To what extent is this decline driven by the Federal Reserve’s interest rate policy? This post addresses this question by coupling the results presented in the previous post with those obtained from an estimated dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model.

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Posted by Blog Author at 7:00 AM in DSGE, Liquidity, Macroecon, Monetary Policy | Permalink | Comments (0)

February 06, 2018

A Time-Series Perspective on Safety, Liquidity, and Low Interest Rates



Second of three posts
LSE_A Time-Series Perspective on Safety, Liquidity, and Low Interest Rates

The previous post in this series discussed several possible explanations for the trend decline in U.S. real interest rates since the late 1990s. We noted that while interest rates have generally come down over the past two decades, this decline has been more pronounced for Treasury securities. The conclusion that we draw from this evidence is that the convenience associated with the safety and liquidity embedded in Treasuries is an important driver of the secular (long-term) decline in Treasury yields. In this post and the next, we provide an overview of the two complementary empirical strategies we adopt to extract the trends in real interest rates and quantify their driving factors. Much more detail on all of this can be found in our recently published Brookings paper.

Continue reading "A Time-Series Perspective on Safety, Liquidity, and Low Interest Rates " »

Posted by Blog Author at 7:00 AM in Liquidity, Macroecon, Monetary Policy | Permalink | Comments (0)
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Liberty Street Economics features insight and analysis from New York Fed economists working at the intersection of research and policy. Launched in 2011, the blog takes its name from the Bank’s headquarters at 33 Liberty Street in Manhattan’s Financial District.

The editors are Michael Fleming, Andrew Haughwout, Thomas Klitgaard, and Asani Sarkar, all economists in the Bank’s Research Group.

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