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49 posts on "DSGE"
June 19, 2020

The New York Fed DSGE Model Forecast—March 2020

This post presents an update of the economic forecasts generated by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model. We describe very briefly our forecast and its change since December 2019. As usual, we wish to remind our readers that the DSGE model forecast is not an official New York Fed forecast, but only an input to the Research staff’s overall forecasting process. For more information about the model and variables discussed here, see our DSGE model Q & A.

Posted at 7:00 am in DSGE, Forecasting, Macroecon | Permalink | Comments (0)
December 20, 2019

The New York Fed DSGE Model Forecast—December 2019

This post presents an update of the economic forecasts generated by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model. We describe very briefly our forecast and its change since September 2019. As usual, we wish to remind our readers that the DSGE model forecast is not an official New York Fed forecast, but only an input to the Research staff’s overall forecasting process. For more information about the model and variables discussed here, see our DSGE model Q & A.

September 30, 2019

The New York Fed DSGE Model Forecast—September 2019

This post presents an update of the economic forecasts generated by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model. We describe very briefly our forecast and its change since June 2019. As usual, we wish to remind our readers that the DSGE model forecast is not an official New York Fed forecast, but only an input to the Research staff’s overall forecasting process. For more information about the model and variables discussed here, see our DSGE model Q & A.

August 21, 2019

Online Estimation of DSGE Models

Our macroeconomists explain their approach for parallel and “online” estimation of DSGE models using sequential Monte Carlo techniques and share a GitHub link for obtaining their SMC Julia code.

Posted at 7:00 am in DSGE, Macroecon | Permalink | Comments (0)
June 21, 2019

The New York Fed DSGE Model Forecast—June 2019

The June model forecast for 2019-22 is summarized in the table below, alongside the January forecast, and in the following charts. The model uses quarterly macroeconomic data released through the first quarter of 2019, and financial data and staff forecasts available through May 31, 2019.

February 8, 2019

The New York Fed DSGE Model Forecast—January 2019

This post presents an update of the economic forecasts generated by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model. We describe very briefly our forecast and its change since October 2018. As usual, we wish to remind our readers that the DSGE model forecast is not an official New York Fed forecast, but only an input to the Research staff’s overall forecasting process. For more information about the model and variables discussed here, see our DSGE model Q & A.

October 24, 2018

The New York Fed DSGE Model Forecast—October 2018

This post presents an update of the economic forecasts generated by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model. We describe very briefly our forecast and its change since July 2018. As usual, we wish to remind our readers that the DSGE model forecast is not an official New York Fed forecast, but only an input to the Research staff’s overall forecasting process. For more information about the model and variables discussed here, see our DSGE model Q & A.

July 13, 2018

The New York Fed DSGE Model Forecast–July 2018

This post presents an update of the economic forecasts generated by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model. We describe very briefly our forecast and its change since March 2018. As usual, we wish to remind our readers that the DSGE model forecast is not an official New York Fed forecast, but only an input to the Research staff’s overall forecasting process. For more information about the model and variables discussed here, see our DSGE model Q & A.

May 9, 2018

Forecasts of the Lost Recovery

The years following the Great Recession were challenging for forecasters for a variety of reasons, including an unprecedented policy environment. This post, based on our recently released working paper, documents the real-time forecasting performance of the New York Fed dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model in the wake of the Great Recession. We show that the model’s predictive accuracy was on par with that of private forecasters and proved to be quite a bit better, at least in terms of GDP growth, than that of the median forecasts from the Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) Summary of Economic Projections (SEP).

Posted at 7:00 am in DSGE, Forecasting | Permalink | Comments (0)
March 9, 2018

The New York Fed DSGE Model Forecast–March 2018

This post presents a quarterly update of the economic forecast generated by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model. We describe our forecast very briefly and highlight its change since November 2017.

Posted at 7:00 am in DSGE, DSGE-Forecast, Forecasting | Permalink | Comments (0)
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