89 posts from "2019"
August 13, 2019
Just Released: Mind the Gap in Delinquency Rates
Total household debt balances increased by $192 billion in the second quarter of 2019, boosted primarily by a $162 billion gain in mortgage installment balances, according to the latest Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit from the New York Fed’s Center for Microeconomic Data (the mortgage installment balances exclude home equity lines of credit, which are reported separately and have been declining in balance for some time). The new mortgage total of $9.4 trillion is slightly higher than the previous high in mortgage balances from the third quarter of 2008 in nominal terms.
August 7, 2019
Does a Data Quirk Inflate China’s Travel Services Deficit?
China international trade service balance of payments imports exports tourism current account balance
July 19, 2019
At the New York Fed: Research Conference on FinTech
Financial technology (“FinTech”) refers to the evolving intersection of financial services and technology. In March, the New York Fed hosted “The First New York Fed Research Conference on FinTech” to understand the implications of FinTech developments on issues that are relevant to the Fed’s mandates such as lending, payments, and regulation. In this post, we summarize the principal themes and findings of the conference.
July 17, 2019
How Do Large Banks Manage Their Cash?
As the aggregate supply of reserves shrinks and large banks implement liquidity regulations, they may follow a variety of liquidity management strategies depending on their business models and the interest rate differences between alternative liquid instruments. For example, the banks may continue to hold large amounts of excess reserves or shift to Treasury or agency securities or shrink their balance sheets. In this post, we provide new evidence on how large banks have managed their cash, which is the largest component of reserves, on a daily basis since the implementation of liquidity regulations.
Posted at 7:00 am in Banks, Federal Reserve, Liquidity, Regulation, Repo, Treasury | Permalink | Comments (2)
July 15, 2019
Large Bank Cash Balances and Liquidity Regulations
Jeffrey Levine and Asani Sarkar discuss the recent evolution of large bank cash balances, the effect of liquidity regulations on these balances, and how banks might react to the Federal Reserve’s changes in the supply of reserves.
July 12, 2019
Just Released: Historical Reconstruction of the New York Fed Staff Nowcast, 2002‑15
The New York Fed Staff Nowcast has been running for over three years. Each Friday at 11:15 a.m., we publish our updated predictions for real GDP growth based on the data released each week. When the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) releases the first estimate of GDP growth, we stop updating our nowcast and archive it. We maintain these archives as part of our Nowcasting Report on the New York Fed’s public website to allow users to study the features of the nowcast and its accuracy. Now, to better understand the model and its performance during different cyclical episodes, we are publishing extended historical archives of the nowcast. Doing so provides fourteen additional years of forecasts that can be used not only to evaluate our nowcast model, but also to explore daily U.S. economic history through the model’s lens.
July 10, 2019
Did the Value of a College Degree Decline during the Great Recession?
In an earlier post, we studied how educational attainment affects labor market outcomes and earnings inequality. In this post, we investigate whether these labor market effects were preserved across the last business cycle: Did students with certain types of educational attainment weather the recession better?
Posted at 7:00 am in Education, Human Capital, Inequality, Labor Market, Recession | Permalink | Comments (5)
July 8, 2019
From Policy Rates to Market Rates—Untangling the U.S. Dollar Funding Market
How do changes in the rate that the Federal Reserve pays on reserves held by depository institutions affect rates in money markets in which the Fed does not participate? Through which channels do changes in the so-called administered rates reach rates in onshore and offshore U.S. dollar money markets? In this post, we answer these questions with the help of an interactive map that guides us through the web of interconnected relationships between the Fed, key market players, and the various instruments in the U.S. dollar funding market, highlighting the linkages across the short-term financial products that form this market.
Posted at 7:00 am in Banks, Central Bank, Fed Funds, Federal Reserve, Monetary Policy, Repo | Permalink | Comments (5)
June 26, 2019
How Large Are Default Spillovers in the U.S. Financial System?
When a financial firm suffers sufficiently high losses, it might default on its counterparties, who may in turn become unable to pay their own creditors, and so on. This “domino” or “cascade” effect can quickly propagate through the financial system, creating undesirable spillovers and unnecessary defaults. In this post, we use the framework that we discussed in “Assessing Contagion Risk in a Financial Network,” the first part of this two-part series, to answer the question: How vulnerable is the U.S. financial system to default spillovers?
Posted at 7:00 am in Banks, Crisis, Financial Institutions, Financial Intermediation, Systemic Risk | Permalink | Comments (1)
June 24, 2019
Just Released: New Regional Employment Data Now Available
Regional employment data provided by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) are a critically important tool used to track and assess local economic conditions on a timely basis. However, the primary data used for this purpose are monthly survey-based estimates that are revised once per year, and these revisions can sometimes be substantial and surprising. As a result, initial readings of these data can lead to conclusions about employment trends that may later change. It is possible to anticipate these revisions in advance of their release using a second publicly available data set released by the BLS. Like some of our colleagues at other Federal Reserve Banks, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York is now performing an “early benchmark” of initial monthly employment releases throughout the year and making these benchmarked data available to the public on a monthly basis. Our early benchmarked estimates tend to more closely track revised data than the initial releases do, and can help policymakers and the public better monitor regional economic conditions on a timely basis.
RSS Feed
Follow Liberty Street Economics
