78 posts on "Expectations"
December 6, 2013
Introducing the FRBNY Survey of Consumer Expectations: Household Finance Expectations
In this fourth and final post in our series describing the new FRBNY Survey of Consumer Expectations (SCE), we present the final component of the survey, dedicated to household finance.
December 5, 2013
Introducing the FRBNY Survey of Consumer Expectations: Labor Market Expectations
In the previous two blog postings in this series, we described the goals, structure, and content of the new FRBNY Survey of Consumer Expectations (SCE) and presented some findings regarding inflation expectations.
December 4, 2013
Introducing the FRBNY Survey of Consumer Expectations: Measuring Price Inflation Expectations
In this second of a series of four blog postings, we discuss the data on inflation expectations collected in our new FRBNY Survey of Consumer Expectations (SCE).
Introducing the FRBNY Survey of Consumer Expectations: Survey Goals, Design, and Content
Starting in the first quarter of 2014, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York (FRBNY) will begin reporting findings from a new national survey designed to elicit consumers’ expectations for a wide range of household-level and aggregate economic and financial conditions.
April 15, 2013
Do Treasury Term Premia Rise around Monetary Tightenings?
Some commentators have expressed concern that Treasury yields might rise sharply once the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) begins to raise the federal funds rate (FFR), worrying, in particular, about a sudden increase in Treasury term premia.
Posted at 7:00 am in Expectations, Financial Markets, Forecasting, Macroeconomics, Unemployment | Permalink
February 25, 2013
The Macroeconomic Effects of Forward Guidance
In this post, we quantify the macroeconomic effects of central bank announcements about future federal funds rates, or forward guidance.
Posted at 7:00 am in DSGE, Expectations, Fed Funds, Forecasting, Inflation, Monetary Policy | Permalink | Comments (3)
January 7, 2013
Making a Statement: How Did Professional Forecasters React to the August 2011 FOMC Statement?
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) statement released on August 9, 2011, was the first to incorporate language on “forward guidance” with an explicit date tied to the Committee’s expected path of monetary policy.
November 19, 2012
Compensation Growth and Slack in the Current Economic Environment
Following a significant slowing during the recent recession, growth in various labor compensation measures has stabilized during the past two to three years.
November 5, 2012
Nudging Inflation Expectations: An Experiment
Managing consumers’ inflation expectations is of critical importance to central banks in the conduct of monetary policy.
July 11, 2012
The Puzzling Pre‑FOMC Announcement “Drift”
For many years, economists have struggled to explain the “equity premium puzzle”—the fact that the average return on stocks is larger than what would be expected to compensate for their riskiness.
Posted at 7:00 am in Expectations, Financial Markets, Monetary Policy, Stocks | Permalink | Comments (9)
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