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46 posts on "Employment"

October 19, 2016

Lower Manhattan since 9/11: A Study in Resilience

Jason Bram and Joelle Scally

LSE_Lower Manhattan since 9/11: A Study in Resilience

The 9/11 terrorist attack on the World Trade Center left a deep scar on New York City and the nation, most particularly in terms of the human toll. In addition to the lives lost and widespread health problems suffered by many others—in particular by first responders and recovery workers—the destruction of billions of dollars’ worth of property and infrastructure led to severe disruptions to the local economy. Nowhere were these disruptions more severe and long-lasting than in the neighborhoods closest to Ground Zero.

Continue reading "Lower Manhattan since 9/11: A Study in Resilience" »

Posted by Blog Author at 10:00 AM in Employment, Expectations, New York City, Regional Analysis | Permalink | Comments (0)

September 28, 2016

U.S. Real Wage Growth: Slowing Down With Age



LSE_U.S. Real Wage Growth: Slowing Down With Age

Second of two posts
In Monday’s post, we described the estimation of real wage growth rates for different cohorts of U.S. workers. We showed that the life-cycle pattern of real wage growth is characterized by high growth early in a worker’s career, little to no growth in mid-career, and negative growth as workers near retirement. We also documented that a growing fraction of the U.S. adult population is transitioning into the flat to negative real wage growth phases of their careers. Here, we turn our attention to estimating the effect of this demographic shift on the economy-wide average real wage growth rate. Our analysis shows that this economy-wide average real wage growth rate has declined by a third since the mid-1980s.

Continue reading "U.S. Real Wage Growth: Slowing Down With Age" »

Posted by Blog Author at 7:00 AM in Demographics, Employment, Expectations, Unemployment, Wages | Permalink | Comments (2)

August 08, 2016

Restoring Economic Growth in Puerto Rico: Introduction to the Series



LSE_Restoring Economic Growth in Puerto Rico: Introduction to the Series


The difficult economic and financial issues facing the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico have remained very much in the news since our post on options for addressing its fiscal problems appeared last fall. That post was itself a follow-up on a series of analyses, starting with a 2012 report that detailed the economic challenges facing the Commonwealth. In 2014, we extended that analysis with an update where we focused more closely on the fiscal challenges facing the Island. As the problems deepened, we have continued to examine important related subjects ranging from positive revisions in employment data, to the credit conditions faced by small businesses, to understanding emigration, and to considering how the Commonwealth’s public debts stack up. In most of this work, we have focused on how policymakers could help to address the immediate issues facing the Island and its people. The U.S. Congress and the Obama Administration took action in June to provide a framework to help address Puerto Rico’s fiscal crisis. But much remains to be done to address these ongoing problems, which represent a significant impediment to economic growth in the short run. It also seems important to revisit the question of the prospects for reviving longer-run growth in the Commonwealth. These concerns were underscored by projections published by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in the April edition of the World Economic Outlook that forecast Puerto Rico’s real GDP and population to decline through 2021.

Continue reading "Restoring Economic Growth in Puerto Rico: Introduction to the Series" »

August 03, 2016

The Reluctance of Firms to Interview the Long-Term Unemployed



LSE_The Reluctance of Firms to Interview the Long-Term Unemployed

Estimates from the Current Population Survey show that the probability of finding a job declines the longer one is unemployed. Is this due to a loss of skills from being unemployed, employer discrimination against the long-term unemployed, or are there characteristics of workers in this segment of the workforce that lower their probability of finding a job? Studies that send out fictitious resumes find that employers do consider the length of unemployment in deciding whom to interview. Our recent work examines how such employer screening based on unemployment duration ultimately affects job-finding rates and long-term unemployment.

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Posted by Blog Author at 7:00 AM in Employment, Labor Economics, Macroecon, Unemployment | Permalink | Comments (0)

March 25, 2016

Upstate New York Job Growth: The Bad News Is that the Good News Was Wrong



Upstate New York Job Growth: The Bad News Is that the Good News Was Wrong

In 2015, upstate New York looked to be having its strongest job growth in years. Employment was estimated to be growing at around one percent—below the national pace, but twice the region’s trend growth rate since the end of the Great Recession. Buffalo, in particular, looked to be gaining significant numbers of construction and manufacturing jobs for the first time in decades, pushing it to its highest job growth since the late 1990s. Unfortunately, the good news was wrong. Annual benchmark revisions to New York State’s employment data released in early March cut upstate’s growth rate in half, indicating that the pickup in the pace of the region’s job growth never really happened.

Continue reading "Upstate New York Job Growth: The Bad News Is that the Good News Was Wrong" »

Posted by Blog Author at 7:00 AM in Employment, New York, Regional Analysis | Permalink | Comments (0)

February 29, 2016

The “Cadillac Tax”: Driving Firms to Change Their Plans?



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Since the 1940s, employers that provide health insurance for their employees can deduct the cost as a business expense, but the government does not treat the value of that coverage as taxable income. This exclusion of employer-provided health insurance from taxable income—$248 billion in 2013, according to the Congressional Budget Office—is a huge subsidy for health spending. Many economists cite the distortionary effects of this tax subsidy as an important reason for why U.S. health care spending accounts for such a large share of the economy and why spending historically has grown so rapidly. In this blog post, we focus on a provision of the Affordable Care Act (ACA) that is intended to chip away at this tax subsidy, the colloquially labelled “Cadillac Tax” on the priciest employer-provided health insurance plans.

Continue reading "The “Cadillac Tax”: Driving Firms to Change Their Plans?" »

Posted by Blog Author at 7:00 AM in Employment, Labor Economics, Regional Analysis | Permalink | Comments (0)

September 02, 2015

Searching for Higher Wages





Since the peak of the recession, the unemployment rate has fallen by almost 5 percentage points, and observers continue to focus on whether and when this decline will lead to robust wage growth. Typically, in the wake of such a decline, real wages grow since there is more competition for workers among potential employers. While this relationship has historically been quite informative, real wage growth more recently has not been commensurate with observed declines in the unemployment rate.

Continue reading "Searching for Higher Wages" »

Posted by Blog Author at 7:00 AM in Employment, Labor Economics, Unemployment, Wages | Permalink | Comments (3)

August 26, 2015

Just Released: An Update on Regional Economic Conditions Provided at Our Economic Press Briefing



Today’s Economic Press Briefing at the New York Fed presented our economic outlook for New York, Northern New Jersey, and Puerto Rico. We showed that many parts of the region have bounced back quite well from the Great Recession and are growing at a solid clip, including New York City, Buffalo, and Albany. The picture is a bit different in other parts of the region, though. In both Northern New Jersey and the Lower Hudson Valley, employment has been growing steadily, but jobs are still not back to their pre-recession peak. And there are also pockets of significant weakness, such as Binghamton, Puerto Rico, and the U.S. Virgin Islands, which have yet to show any meaningful signs of recovery.

Continue reading "Just Released: An Update on Regional Economic Conditions Provided at Our Economic Press Briefing" »

Posted by Blog Author at 10:00 AM in Employment, New Jersey, New York, Puerto Rico, Regional Analysis | Permalink | Comments (0)

August 07, 2015

Crisis Chronicles–The California Gold Rush and the Gold Standard



LSE_2015_crisis-chronicles-gold-rush_450_art

On the crisp morning of January 24, 1848, James Marshall, a carpenter in the employ of John Sutter, traveled up the American River to inspect a lumber mill that Sutter had ordered constructed close to timber sources. Marshall arrived to find that overnight rains had washed away some of the tailrace the crew had been digging. But as Marshall examined the channel, something shiny caught his eye, and as he bent over to retrieve the object, his heart began to pound. Gold! Marshall and Sutter tried to contain the secret, but rumors soon spread to Monterey, San Francisco, and beyond—and the rush was on. In this edition of Crisis Chronicles, we describe the excitement of the California Gold Rush and explain how it constituted an inflationary shock because the United States was tied to the gold standard at the time.

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Posted by Blog Author at 7:00 AM in Crisis Chronicles , Employment, Financial Markets | Permalink | Comments (7)

May 06, 2015

U.S. Potential Economic Growth: Is It Improving with Age?



LSE_2015_us-potential-growth-kapon-450_art

The contribution of labor input to the potential GDP growth rate for the United States has changed over time. We decompose this contribution into two components: the size of the adult population and the average demographically adjusted employment rate. We find that these two components in the late 1960s and early 1970s contributed at least 2.5 percentage points to potential growth. Since the mid-1990s, the aging of the population has reduced the contribution of labor to growth. We estimate that the current contribution to potential economic growth from labor input has declined to around 0.6 percentage points. One implication going forward is that more labor productivity growth will be required to sustain U.S. growth.

Continue reading "U.S. Potential Economic Growth: Is It Improving with Age?" »

Posted by Blog Author at 7:00 AM in Demographics, Employment, Labor Economics, Macroecon | Permalink | Comments (4)
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Liberty Street Economics features insight and analysis from New York Fed economists working at the intersection of research and policy. Launched in 2011, the blog takes its name from the Bank’s headquarters at 33 Liberty Street in Manhattan’s Financial District.

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