138 posts on "Inflation"
February 25, 2013
The Macroeconomic Effects of Forward Guidance
In this post, we quantify the macroeconomic effects of central bank announcements about future federal funds rates, or forward guidance.
Posted at 7:00 am in DSGE, Expectations, Fed Funds, Forecasting, Inflation, Monetary Policy | Permalink | Comments (3)
January 14, 2013
China’s Impact on U.S. Inflation
U.S. import prices of consumer goods shipped from China have been moderating in recent quarters, following an upward surge of 11 percent between mid-2010 and the end of 2011.
Posted at 7:00 am in Exchange Rates, Exports, Inflation, International Economics, Macroeconomics | Permalink
November 5, 2012
Nudging Inflation Expectations: An Experiment
Managing consumers’ inflation expectations is of critical importance to central banks in the conduct of monetary policy.
July 13, 2012
Historical Echoes: Whip Inflation Now … and Then
In October I974, with consumer inflation running at more than 10 percent annually, President Gerald Ford gave a now famous speech in which he proclaimed: “There is only one point on which all advisers have agreed: We must whip inflation right now.”
May 11, 2012
Just Released: The New York Fed Staff Forecast—May 2012
We are presenting the New York Fed staff outlook for the U.S. economy to the New York Fed’s Economic Advisory Panel (EAP) at their meeting here today.
Posted at 10:30 am in Forecasting, Inflation, Macroeconomics, Monetary Policy, Unemployment | Permalink
March 23, 2012
Just Released: Chairman Bernanke Returns to His Academic Roots
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke is back in the classroom this month to deliver a series of four lectures for undergraduate students at the George Washington School of Business in Washington, D.C.
Posted at 7:00 am in Central Bank, Education, Inflation, Monetary Policy, Recession | Permalink | Comments (2)
October 12, 2011
Short‑Term Debt, Rollover Risk, and Financial Crises
One of the many striking features of the recent financial crisis was the sudden “freeze” in the market for the rollover of short-term debt.
Posted at 7:00 am in Credit, Crisis, Financial Institutions, Financial Markets, Inflation | Permalink
August 15, 2011
What to Make of Market Measures of Inflation Expectations?
Central banks and investors around the world closely monitor developments in financial markets to gauge expectations of future interest rates and inflation. In this post, we argue that two of the most commonly used market-based inflation expectations measures—TIPS breakevens and inflation swaps—are noisy. Although movements in both measures provide policymakers with valuable information, readings should always be interpreted with care.
Posted at 10:00 am in Exchange Rates, Expectations, Financial Markets, Inflation, Macroeconomics | Permalink | Comments (2)
July 27, 2011
Inflation Expectations and Behavior: Do Survey Respondents Act on Their Beliefs?
Surveys of consumers’ inflation expectations are now a key component of monetary policy. To date, however, little work has been done on 1) whether individual consumers act on their beliefs about future inflation, and 2) whether the inflation expectations elicited by these surveys are actually informative about the respondents’ beliefs. In this post, we report on a new study by Armantier, Bruine de Bruin, Topa, van der Klaauw, and Zafar (2010) that investigates these two issues by comparing consumers’ survey-based inflation expectations with their behavior in a financially incentivized experiment. We find that the decisions of survey respondents are generally consistent with their stated inflation beliefs.
July 18, 2011
Which Firms Have Flexible Prices?
Since the 1930s, the conventional wisdom among economists has held that producer prices are more rigid than consumer prices. The roots of this view lie in the 1930s-era “administered price” thesis, which states that large firms set their prices more rigidly than do small firms. In this post, we report that this old “fact” is not true. We instead find that the prices set by large firms are much more flexible than those set by small firms. A key implication of this finding is that policymakers concerned about inflation or deflation should pay particular attention to changes in large firms’ prices.
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