199 posts on "Monetary Policy"
August 14, 2015
The Monetary Policy Advice Process at the New York Fed
Research economists discuss their process for providing advice on monetary policy to the New York Fed president ahead of FOMC meetings.
Posted at 10:00 am in Monetary Policy | Permalink
August 12, 2015
Do Asset Purchase Programs Push Capital Abroad?
Thomas Klitgaard and David O. Lucca Euro area sovereign bond yields fell to record lows and the euro weakened after the European Central Bank (ECB) dramatically expanded its asset purchase program in early 2015. Some analysts predicted massive financial outflows spilling out of the euro area and affecting global markets as investors sought higher yields […]
Posted at 7:00 am in Balance of Payments, Euro Area, Exchange Rates, Exports, Financial Markets, International Economics, Monetary Policy | Permalink | Comments (2)
June 8, 2015
The Myth of First‑Quarter Residual Seasonality
The current policy debate is influenced by the possibility that the first-quarter GDP data were affected by “residual seasonality.”
May 27, 2015
The Eurodollar Market in the United States
In February, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s trading desk announced it will publish a new overnight bank funding rate early next year.
May 20, 2015
Why Are Interest Rates So Low?
Marco Del Negro, Marc Giannoni, Matthew Cocci, Sara Shahanaghi, and Micah Smith Second post in the series In a recent series of blog posts, the former Chairman of the Federal Reserve System, Ben Bernanke, has asked the question: “Why are interest rates so low?” (See part 1, part 2, and part 3.) He refers, of […]
May 18, 2015
The FRBNY DSGE Model Forecast–April 2015
Marco Del Negro, Marc Giannoni, Matthew Cocci, Sara Shahanaghi, and Micah Smith First in a two-part series There are various types of economic forecasts, such as judgmental forecasts or model-based forecasts. In this post, we provide an update of the economic forecasts implied by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s (FRBNY) dynamic stochastic general […]
May 15, 2015
Just Released: The New York Fed Staff Forecast, May 2015
Today, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York (FRBNY) is hosting the spring meeting of its Economic Advisory Panel (EAP). As has become custom at this meeting, FRBNY staff are presenting their forecast for U.S. growth, inflation, and unemployment through the end of 2016. Following the presentation, members of the EAP, which consists of leading economists in academia and the private sector, are asked to discuss the staff forecast. Such feedback helps the staff evaluate the assumptions and reasoning underlying the forecast and the key risks to it. Subjecting the staff forecast to periodic evaluation is also important because it informs the staff’s discussions with New York Fed President William Dudley about economic conditions. In that same spirit, we are sharing a short summary of the staff forecast in this post. For more detail, please see the material from the EAP meeting on our website.
Posted at 10:30 am in Exports, Forecasting, Inflation, Macroeconomics, Monetary Policy, Unemployment | Permalink
May 4, 2015
Interest‑Bearing Securities When Interest Rates are Below Zero
Negative interest rates have evolved, over the past few years, from a topic of modest academic interest to a practical reality.
April 15, 2015
Please Read This before Betting against Government Bond Betas
Mounting evidence says that “low-risk” investing delivers superior returns, comparable to strategies based on value, size, and momentum.
April 8, 2015
The FR 2420 Data Collection: A New Base for the Fed Funds Rate
On April 1, 2014, the Federal Reserve began collecting transaction-level data on federal funds, Eurodollars, and certificates of deposits from a large set of domestic banks and agencies of foreign banks operating in the United States. Previously, the Fed had only received fed funds and Eurodollar data from major brokers, and not directly from the banks borrowing in these markets. These new data, collected on form FR 2420, have helped the Fed better understand activity in the fed funds and Eurodollar markets. In this post, we focus on the new data on fed funds, in light of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Trading Desk announcement that it plans to use these data to calculate and publish the fed funds effective rate.
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