In 2015, upstate New York looked to be having its strongest job growth in years. Employment was estimated to be growing at around one percent—below the national pace, but twice the region’s trend growth rate since the end of the Great Recession.
Look for our next post on June 20.
March 25, 2016
March 23, 2016
Is Bitcoin Really Frictionless?
Bitcoin is the most popular virtual currency yet developed.
March 21, 2016
What Tracks Commodity Prices?
Various news reports have asserted that the slowdown in China was a key factor driving down commodity prices in 2015. It is true that China’s growth eased last year and, owing to its manufacturing-intensive economy, that slackening could reasonably have had repercussions for commodity prices. Still, growth in Japan and Europe accelerated in 2015, with the net result that global growth was fairly steady last year, casting doubt on the China slowdown explanation. An alternative story relies on the strong correlation between the dollar and commodity prices over time. A simple regression shows that both global growth and the dollar track commodity prices, and in this framework, it is the rise of the dollar that captures last year’s drop in commodity prices. Thus a forecast of stable global growth and an unchanged dollar suggests little change in commodity prices in 2016.
Posted at 7:00 am in Forecasting, International Economics, Macroeconomics | Permalink | Comments (3)
March 7, 2016
Banking Deserts, Branch Closings, and Soft Information
U.S. banks have shuttered nearly 5,000 branches since the financial crisis, raising concerns that more low-income and minority neighborhoods may be devolving into “banking deserts” with inadequate, or no, mainstream financial services.
Posted at 7:00 am in Banks, Crisis, Financial Institutions, Household Finance, Regulation | Permalink
March 4, 2016
Hey, Economist! How Well Do We Weather Snowstorms?
In a Q&A interview, the New York Fed’s Jason Bram sheds light on how economists measure the cost of a snowstorm.
March 2, 2016
Would Monetary Tightening Increase Bank Wholesale Funding?
Dong Beom Choi and Hyun-Soo Choi The recent financial crisis clearly revealed that the reliance of banks on short-term wholesale funding critically increased their funding liquidity risks; during market disruptions, it becomes more likely that banks will be unable to roll over those funds and will hence be forced to fire-sell illiquid assets and possibly […]
Posted at 7:00 am | Permalink
February 29, 2016
The “Cadillac Tax”: Driving Firms to Change Their Plans?
Since the 1940s, employers that provide health insurance for their employees can deduct the cost as a business expense, but the government does not treat the value of that coverage as taxable income.
February 26, 2016
From the Vault: The Path of Interest Rates
Numerous posts in the Liberty Street Economics archive cover the measurement and dynamics of the natural rate of interest as well as its use as a benchmark for calibrating monetary policy settings.
February 25, 2016
Just Released: Five New Data Series on Consumer Expectations
Today, the New York Fed is introducing a number of new data series and interactive charts reporting findings from its Survey of Consumer Expectations (SCE).
February 24, 2016
The Graying of American Debt
The U.S. population is aging and so are its debts. In this post, we use the New York Fed Consumer Credit Panel, which is based on Equifax credit data, to look at how debt is changing as baby boomers reach retirement age and millennials find their footing. We find that aggregate debt balances held by younger borrowers have declined modestly from 2003 to 2015, with a debt portfolio reallocation away from credit card, auto, and mortgage debt, toward student debt. Debt held by borrowers between the ages of 50 and 80, however, increased by roughly 60 percent over the same time period. This shifting of debt from younger to older borrowers is of obvious relevance to markets fueled by consumer credit. It is also relevant from a loan performance perspective as consumer debt payments are being made by older debtors than ever before.
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