98 posts on "Unemployment"
May 7, 2020
Translating Weekly Jobless Claims into Monthly Net Job Losses
News headlines highlighting the loss of 26 million jobs (so far) underscore the massive shock that has hit the U.S. economy and the dislocation, hardship, and stress it has caused for so many American workers. But how accurately does this number actually capture the number of net job losses? In this post, we look at some of the statistical anomalies and quirks in the weekly claims series and offer a guide to interpreting these numbers. What we find is that the relationship between jobless claims and payroll employment for the month can vary substantially, depending on the nature, timing, and persistence of the disaster.
Posted at 7:00 am in Human Capital, Labor Market, Pandemic, Regional Analysis, Unemployment | Permalink | Comments (4)
March 4, 2020
How Does Credit Access Affect Job‑Search Outcomes and Sorting?
The analysis considers how access to consumer credit influences the job search behavior of displaced workers.
Is the Tide Lifting All Boats? A Closer Look at the Earnings Growth Experiences of U.S. Workers
Although there is evidence that U.S. workers at the bottom of the earnings distribution may be catching up with those at the top, there are indications that returns to higher education may be increasing, with earnings growth for college graduates outpacing those with less education.
Women Have Been Hit Hard by the Loss of Routine Jobs, Too
Jaison Abel and Richard Deitz find that although both men and women have experienced a loss of routine jobs since 2000, the decline has been markedly steeper for women.
March 3, 2020
Introduction to Heterogeneity Series II: Labor Market Outcomes
Rajashri Chakrabarti introduces a new Liberty Street Economics series exploring dimensions of heterogeneity in the labor market experience of U.S. workers.
Posted at 7:00 am in Human Capital, Inequality, Labor Market, Regional Analysis, Unemployment | Permalink | Comments (2)
February 12, 2020
Reading the Tea Leaves of the U.S. Business Cycle—Part Two
New work by Richard Crump, Domenico Giannone, and David Lucca finds labor market data to be the most reliable information for dating the U.S. business cycle.
Posted at 7:00 am in Labor Market, Macroeconomics, Recession, Unemployment | Permalink | Comments (1)
October 8, 2019
Job Ladders and Careers
Workers in the United States experience vast differences in lifetime earnings. Individuals in the 90th percentile earn around seven times more than those in the 10th percentile, and those in the top percentile earn almost twenty times more. A large share of these differences arise over the course of people’s careers. What accounts for these vastly different outcomes in the labor market? Why do some individuals experience much steeper earnings profiles than others? Previous research has shown that the “job ladder”—in which workers obtain large pay increases when they switch to better jobs or when firms want to poach them—is important for wage growth. In this post, we investigate how job ladders differ across workers.
October 2, 2019
U.S. Virgin Islands Struggle While Puerto Rico Rebounds
Almost two years after hurricanes Irma and Maria wreaked havoc on Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands, the two territories’ economies have moved in very different directions. When the hurricanes struck, both were already in long economic slumps and had significant fiscal problems. As of mid-2019, however, Puerto Rico’s economy was showing considerable signs of improvement since the hurricanes, while the Virgin Islands’ economy remained mired in a deep slump through the end of 2018, though signs of a nascent recovery began emerging in early 2019. In this post, we assess the contrasting trends of these two economies since the hurricanes and attempt to explain the forces driving these trends.
Posted at 7:00 am in Labor Market, Puerto Rico, Regional Analysis, Unemployment | Permalink | Comments (2)
September 23, 2019
Just Released: Transitions to Unemployment Tick Up in Latest SCE Labor Market Survey
The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s July 2019 SCE Labor Market Survey shows a year-over-year rise in employer-to-employer transitions as well as an increase in transitions into unemployment. Satisfaction with promotion opportunities and wage compensation were largely unchanged, while satisfaction with non-wage benefits retreated. Regarding expectations, the average expected wage offer (conditional on receiving one) and the average reservation wage—the lowest wage at which respondents would be willing to accept a new job—both increased. Expectations regarding job transitions were largely stable.
May 20, 2019
How Has Germany’s Economy Been Affected by the Recent Surge in Immigration?
Germany emerged as a leading destination for immigration around 2011, as the country’s labor market improved while unemployment climbed elsewhere in the European Union. A second wave began in 2015, with refugees from the Middle East adding to already heavy inflows from Eastern Europe. The demographic consequences of the surge in immigration include a renewed rise in Germany’s population and the stabilization of the country’s median age. The macroeconomic consequences are hard to measure but look promising, since per capita income growth has held up and unemployment has declined. Data on labor-market outcomes specific to immigrants are similarly favorable through 2015, but challenges are evident in how well the economy is adjusting to the second immigration wave.
Posted at 7:00 am in Employment, International Economics, Labor Market, Macroeconomics, Unemployment | Permalink | Comments (3)
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