67 posts on "DSGE"
March 20, 2026
The New York Fed DSGE Model Forecast—March 2026
This post presents an update of the economic forecasts generated by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model. We describe very briefly our forecast and its change since December 2025. To summarize, growth in 2026 is expected to be more robust, and inflation more persistent, than predicted in December. Stronger investment is the main driver for higher growth, while cost-push shocks, possibly capturing the effects of tariffs, are the key factors behind higher inflation. Projections for the short-run real natural rate of interest (r*) are the same as in December.
December 12, 2025
The New York Fed DSGE Model Forecast— December 2025
This post presents an update of the economic forecasts generated by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model. We describe very briefly our forecast and its change since September 2025. To summarize, growth in 2025 is expected to be stronger than in September due to a lower projected path of the policy rate, as well as higher productivity. Inflation projections are higher in 2025 because of cost-push shocks, which capture the effects of tariffs. The model’s predictions for the short-run real natural rate of interest (or r*) in 2025 have decreased relative to September.
September 19, 2025
The New York Fed DSGE Model Forecast—September 2025
This post presents an update of the economic forecasts generated by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model. We describe very briefly our forecast and its change since June 2025. To summarize, the model expects growth in 2025 to be stronger, and inflation lower, than in June. Moreover, the model’s predictions for the short-run real natural rate of interest (r*) have increased relative to June throughout the forecast horizon, partly reflecting the strength in the economy and the buoyant financial conditions.
June 20, 2025
The New York Fed DSGE Model Forecast—June 2025
This post presents an update of the economic forecasts generated by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model. We describe our forecast and its change since March 2025. To summarize, the model points to a marked weakening in real GDP growth across the forecast horizon (with downward revisions relative to March), driven by weaker-than-expected Q1 data and the anticipated effects of tariff-related markup shocks. The core PCE inflation forecast has been revised significantly higher in the near term, with moderate upward adjustments in later years, reflecting persistent cost pressures. The real natural rate of interest has been revised slightly downward across the forecast horizon, reflecting weaker economic fundamentals.
March 21, 2025
The New York Fed DSGE Model Forecast—March 2025
This post presents an update of the economic forecasts generated by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model. We describe very briefly our forecast and its change since December 2024. As usual, we wish to remind our readers that the DSGE model forecast is not an official New York Fed forecast, but only an input to the Research staff’s overall forecasting process. For more information about the model and variables discussed here, see our DSGE model Q & A.
December 20, 2024
The New York Fed DSGE Model Forecast—December 2024
This post presents an update of the economic forecasts generated by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model. We describe very briefly our forecast and its change since September 2024. As usual, we wish to remind our readers that the DSGE model forecast is not an official New York Fed forecast, but only an input to the Research staff’s overall forecasting process. For more information about the model and variables discussed here, see our DSGE model Q & A.
September 20, 2024
The New York Fed DSGE Model Forecast—September 2024
This post presents an update of the economic forecasts generated by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model. We describe very briefly our forecast and its change since June 2024. As usual, we wish to remind our readers that the DSGE model forecast is not an official New York Fed forecast, but only an input to the Research staff’s overall forecasting process. For more information about the model and variables discussed here, see our DSGE model Q & A.
June 14, 2024
The New York Fed DSGE Model Forecast—June 2024
This post presents an update of the economic forecasts generated by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model. We describe very briefly our forecast and its change since March 2024. As usual, we wish to remind our readers that the DSGE model forecast is not an official New York Fed forecast, but only an input to the Research staff’s overall forecasting process. For more information about the model and variables discussed here, see our DSGE model Q & A.
March 22, 2024
The New York Fed DSGE Model Forecast—March 2024
This post presents an update of the economic forecasts generated by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model. We describe very briefly our forecast and its change since December 2023. As usual, we wish to remind our readers that the DSGE model forecast is not an official New York Fed forecast, but only an input to the Research staff’s overall forecasting process. For more information about the model and variables discussed here, see our DSGE model Q & A.
December 15, 2023
The New York Fed DSGE Model Forecast—December 2023
This post presents an update of the economic forecasts generated by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model. We describe very briefly our forecast and its change since September 2023. As usual, we wish to remind our readers that the DSGE model forecast is not an official New York Fed forecast, but only an input to the Research staff’s overall forecasting process. For more information about the model and variables discussed here, see our DSGE model Q & A.
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