98 posts on "Forecasting"
September 9, 2013
Preparing for Takeoff? Professional Forecasters and the June 2013 FOMC Meeting
Following the June 18-19 Federal Open Market
Committee (FOMC) meeting different measures of short-term interest rates
increased notably.
August 21, 2013
Creating a History of U.S. Inflation Expectations
Central bankers closely monitor inflation expectations because they’re an important determinant of actual inflation.
May 23, 2013
Just Released: The New York Fed Staff Forecast—May 2013
Jonathan McCarthy and Richard Peach As we did last year around this time, we’re presenting the New York Fed staff outlook for the U.S. economy to the Bank’s Economic Advisory Panel at today’s meeting. It provides an opportunity to get valuable feedback from leading economists in academia and the private sector on the staff forecast; such feedback […]
April 15, 2013
Do Treasury Term Premia Rise around Monetary Tightenings?
Some commentators have expressed concern that Treasury yields might rise sharply once the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) begins to raise the federal funds rate (FFR), worrying, in particular, about a sudden increase in Treasury term premia.
Posted at 7:00 am in Expectations, Financial Markets, Forecasting, Macroeconomics, Unemployment | Permalink
February 25, 2013
The Macroeconomic Effects of Forward Guidance
In this post, we quantify the macroeconomic effects of central bank announcements about future federal funds rates, or forward guidance.
Posted at 7:00 am in DSGE, Expectations, Fed Funds, Forecasting, Inflation, Monetary Policy | Permalink | Comments (3)
June 4, 2012
Is the 2005 Bankruptcy Reform Working?
While the name of the Bankruptcy Abuse Prevention and Consumer Protection Act suggests two goals, BAPCPA seemed to be more about abuse prevention than consumer protection.
May 21, 2012
Just Released: The Euro‑zone Growth Outlook – Calm Before the Storm?
The European Central Bank (ECB) released the results of its 2012:Q2 Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) on May 3.
May 11, 2012
Just Released: The New York Fed Staff Forecast—May 2012
We are presenting the New York Fed staff outlook for the U.S. economy to the New York Fed’s Economic Advisory Panel (EAP) at their meeting here today.
Posted at 10:30 am in Forecasting, Inflation, Macroeconomics, Monetary Policy, Unemployment | Permalink
April 16, 2012
Forecasting the Great Recession: DSGE vs. Blue Chip
Dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models have been trashed, bashed, and abused during the Great Recession and after.
April 11, 2012
The European Growth Outlook and Its Risks
As Europe continued to struggle with its sovereign debt crisis during the past two years, significant concerns about the growth outlook for European Union members began to emerge in late 2011.
Posted at 7:00 am in Euro Area, Forecasting, International Economics, Monetary Policy | Permalink | Comments (2)
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