138 posts on "Inflation"
July 18, 2016
Forecasting Interest Rates over the Long Run
In a previous post, we showed how market rates on U.S. Treasuries violate the expectations hypothesis because of time-varying risk premia.
Posted at 7:00 am in Expectations, Financial Markets, Fiscal Policy, Forecasting, Household Finance, Inflation, Treasury | Permalink | Comments (1)
June 6, 2016
Is Health Insurance Good for Your Financial Health?
What is the purpose of health care? What is the purpose of health insurance? When people fall ill, they seek health care in order to get better. But insurance has a slightly different function: Its main role is not to protect our health per se, but to protect our finances. For most people, lifetime health expenditures are quite low. However, some people have enormous health costs owing to major illnesses or health conditions. And this is where health insurance comes in—its goal (like that of any other form of insurance) is to protect these individuals against large, and sometimes ruinous, health expenditures. Has the recent health reform served this purpose?
May 23, 2016
The FRBNY DSGE Model Forecast—May 2016
The May 2016 forecast of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s (FRBNY) dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model remains broadly in line with those of our two previous semiannual reports (see our May 2015 and December 2015 posts). In the past year, the headwinds that contributed to slower growth in the aftermath of the financial crisis finally began to abate. However, the widening of credit spreads associated with swings in financial markets in the second half of 2015 and the first few months of this year have had a negative impact on economic activity. Despite this setback, the model expects a rebound in growth in the second half of the year, so that the medium-term forecast remains, as in the December post, one of steady, gradual economic expansion. The model also continues to predict gradual progress in the inflation rate toward the Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) long-run target of 2 percent.
May 18, 2016
International Evidence on the Use and Effectiveness of Macroprudential Policies
Ozge Akinci In recent years, policymakers in advanced and emerging economies have employed a variety of macroprudential policy tools—targeted rules or requirements that enhance the stability of the financial system as a whole by addressing the interconnectedness of individual financial institutions and their common exposure to economic risk factors. To examine the foreign experience with […]
February 25, 2016
Just Released: Five New Data Series on Consumer Expectations
Today, the New York Fed is introducing a number of new data series and interactive charts reporting findings from its Survey of Consumer Expectations (SCE).
February 5, 2016
Crisis Chronicles: The Long Depression and the Panic of 1873
It always seemed to come down to railroads in the 1800s. Railroads fueled much of the economic growth in the United States at that time, but they required that a great deal of upfront capital be devoted to risky projects. The panics of 1837 and 1857 can both be pinned on railroad investments that went awry, creating enough doubt about the banking system to cause pervasive bank runs. The fatal spark for the Panic of 1873 was also tied to railroad investments—a major bank financing a railroad venture announced that it would suspend withdrawals. As other banks started failing, consumers and businesses pulled back and America entered what is recorded as the country’s longest depression.
Posted at 7:00 am in Crisis, Economic History, Financial Institutions, Inflation, Panic, Unemployment | Permalink | Comments (1)
January 6, 2016
Hedging Income Fluctuations with Foreign Currency Assets
The world has gone through a process of financial globalization over the past two decades, with countries increasing their holdings of foreign assets and liabilities.
Posted at 7:00 am in Exchange Rates, Household Finance, Inflation, International Economics | Permalink
January 5, 2016
Who is Driving the Recent Decline in Consumer Inflation Expectations?
The expectations of U.S. consumers about inflation have declined to record lows over the past several months.
November 18, 2015
The Importance of Commodity Prices in Understanding U.S. Import Prices and Inflation
The dollar rose sharply against both the euro and yen in 2014 and 2015 and non-oil import prices subsequently fell.
Posted at 7:00 am in Inflation, International Economics, Macroeconomics, Monetary Policy | Permalink
November 5, 2015
Trends in Debt Concentration in the United States By Income
Household debt in the United States expanded before the Great Recession, contracted afterward, and has been recovering since 2013.
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