250 posts on "Macroeconomics"
February 13, 2020
Firm‑Level Shocks and GDP Growth: The Case of Boeing’s 737 MAX Production Pause
Events specific to large firms can have significant effects on the macroeconomy. The recent pause in Boeing’s 737 MAX production is a striking example of such an event or “shock.” This post provides a back-of-the envelope calculation of how the “737 MAX shock” could impact U.S. GDP growth in the first quarter of 2020.
Posted at 7:00 am in Macroeconomics | Permalink
February 12, 2020
Reading the Tea Leaves of the U.S. Business Cycle—Part Two
New work by Richard Crump, Domenico Giannone, and David Lucca finds labor market data to be the most reliable information for dating the U.S. business cycle.
Posted at 7:00 am in Labor Market, Macroeconomics, Recession, Unemployment | Permalink | Comments (1)
February 10, 2020
Reading the Tea Leaves of the U.S. Business Cycle—Part One
Richard Crump, Domenico Giannone, and David Lucca discuss different conceptual approaches to dating the business cycle and study their past performance for the U.S. economy.
December 20, 2019
The New York Fed DSGE Model Forecast—December 2019
This post presents an update of the economic forecasts generated by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model. We describe very briefly our forecast and its change since September 2019. As usual, we wish to remind our readers that the DSGE model forecast is not an official New York Fed forecast, but only an input to the Research staff’s overall forecasting process. For more information about the model and variables discussed here, see our DSGE model Q & A.
November 25, 2019
Who Pays the Tax on Imports from China?
Tariffs , of little interest for decades, are again becoming relevant given the increase in the levies charged on Chinese imports. U.S. businesses and consumers are shielded from higher tariffs to the extent that Chinese firms lower their dollar-denominated prices. However, data indicate that prices on goods from China are not falling. As a result, U.S. firms and consumers are paying the tax.
November 18, 2019
Real Inventory Slowdowns
Inventory investment plays a central role in business cycle fluctuations. This post examines whether inventory investment amplifies or dampens economic fluctuations following a tightening in financial conditions. We find evidence supporting an amplification mechanism. This analysis suggests that inventory accumulation will be a drag on economic activity this year but provide a boost in 2020.
Posted at 7:00 am in Macroeconomics | Permalink
September 30, 2019
The New York Fed DSGE Model Forecast—September 2019
This post presents an update of the economic forecasts generated by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model. We describe very briefly our forecast and its change since June 2019. As usual, we wish to remind our readers that the DSGE model forecast is not an official New York Fed forecast, but only an input to the Research staff’s overall forecasting process. For more information about the model and variables discussed here, see our DSGE model Q & A.
August 21, 2019
Online Estimation of DSGE Models
Our macroeconomists explain their approach for parallel and “online” estimation of DSGE models using sequential Monte Carlo techniques and share a GitHub link for obtaining their SMC Julia code.
June 21, 2019
The New York Fed DSGE Model Forecast—June 2019
The June model forecast for 2019-22 is summarized in the table below, alongside the January forecast, and in the following charts. The model uses quarterly macroeconomic data released through the first quarter of 2019, and financial data and staff forecasts available through May 31, 2019.
May 20, 2019
How Has Germany’s Economy Been Affected by the Recent Surge in Immigration?
Germany emerged as a leading destination for immigration around 2011, as the country’s labor market improved while unemployment climbed elsewhere in the European Union. A second wave began in 2015, with refugees from the Middle East adding to already heavy inflows from Eastern Europe. The demographic consequences of the surge in immigration include a renewed rise in Germany’s population and the stabilization of the country’s median age. The macroeconomic consequences are hard to measure but look promising, since per capita income growth has held up and unemployment has declined. Data on labor-market outcomes specific to immigrants are similarly favorable through 2015, but challenges are evident in how well the economy is adjusting to the second immigration wave.
Posted at 7:00 am in Employment, International Economics, Labor Market, Macroeconomics, Unemployment | Permalink | Comments (3)
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