253 posts on "Macroeconomics"
March 29, 2012
Skills Mismatch, Construction Workers, and the Labor Market
Recessions and recoveries typically have been times of substantial reallocation in the economy and the labor market, and the current cycle does not appear to be an exception.
March 28, 2012
The Bathtub Model of Unemployment: The Importance of Labor Market Flow Dynamics
An alternative to Okun’s law to understand unemployment dynamics is to examine the evolution of the unemployment inflow and outflow rates.
March 27, 2012
Okun’s Law and Long Expansions
Economic forecasters frequently use a simple rule of thumb called Okun’s law to link their real GDP growth forecasts to their unemployment rate forecasts.
Posted at 7:00 am in Forecasting, Labor Market, Macroeconomics, Unemployment | Permalink | Comments (1)
March 26, 2012
Prospects for the U.S. Labor Market
The unemployment rate in the United States fell from 9.1 percent in the summer of 2011 to 8.3 percent in February.
February 27, 2012
How the High Level of Reserves Benefits the Payment System
Since October 2008, the Federal Reserve has increased the size of its balance sheet by lending to financial intermediaries and purchasing assets on a large scale.
December 28, 2011
Labor Force Exits Are Complicating Unemployment Rate Forecasts
What will the unemployment rate be in 2013? Even if you were certain how much the U.S. economy (gross domestic product, or GDP) would grow over the next year or two, it would still be difficult to forecast the unemployment rate over that period.
Posted at 7:00 am in Forecasting, Labor Market, Macroeconomics, Unemployment | Permalink | Comments (2)
November 25, 2011
The Failure to Forecast the Great Recession
The economics profession has been appropriately criticized for its failure to forecast the large fall in U.S. house prices and its propagation first into an unprecedented financial crisis and subsequently into the Great Recession.
Posted at 6:00 pm in Forecasting, Macroeconomics, Monetary Policy, Recession, Unemployment | Permalink | Comments (30)
October 3, 2011
What If the U.S. Dollar’s Global Role Changed?
It isn’t surprising that the dollar is always in the news, given the prominence of the United States in the global economy and how often the dollar is used in transactions around the world (as discussed in a 2010 Current Issues article).
September 28, 2011
The Productivity Slowdown Reaffirmed
Economists generally agree that productivity is the primary ingredient for sustainable growth in GDP and wages.
Posted at 7:00 am in Macroeconomics | Permalink
August 17, 2011
Tax Buyouts: Raising Government Revenues without Increasing Labor Tax Distortions
At a time of increasing fiscal pressures both here and abroad, it seems important to consider ways of raising government revenues without discouraging people from working. This post describes a revenue raising plan—a tax “buyout”—that does just that. The buyout would give you, the taxpayer, the option each year of paying a lump sum to the government in exchange for a given reduction in your marginal tax rate that year. In effect, you would use the lump sum payment to buy yourself a lower marginal tax rate, which would in turn give you more incentive to work. The buyout would be risk free: you wouldn’t have to decide whether to take the buyout until after you know your labor income. Why would this be good for you? If you choose to take it, you end up paying less taxes. If you don’t take it, you are just as well off as before. Why is this good for society? The lower marginal tax rate induces you to work more, so that some of the distortionary effects of taxation would disappear. Furthermore, your participation would be voluntary, so the buyout should be politically palatable.
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