250 posts on "Macroeconomics"
January 4, 2022
A New Barometer of Global Supply Chain Pressures
Supply chain disruptions have become a major challenge for the global economy since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic. Factory shutdowns (particularly in Asia) and widespread lockdowns and mobility restrictions have resulted in disruptions across logistics networks, increases in shipping costs, and longer delivery times. Several measures have been used to gauge these disruptions, although those measures tend to focus on selected dimensions of global supply chains. In this post, we propose a new gauge, the Global Supply Chain Pressure Index (GSCPI), which integrates a number of commonly used metrics with an aim to provide a more comprehensive summary of potential disruptions affecting global supply chains.
Posted at 7:00 am in Inflation, International Economics, Macroeconomics, Pandemic, Supply Chain | Permalink | Comments (14)
January 3, 2022
When Will U.S. Exports Take Off?
The economic recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic has been uneven across countries and sectors. While U.S. imports have rebounded to surpass their level before the collapse in 2020, U.S. exports remain far below their pre-pandemic level. This asymmetry in part reflects the different sectoral compositions of imports and exports. U.S. imports are driven by goods trade, while exports rely more heavily on services trade. A key component of services exports is foreign travel to the United States, which has dried up due to the suspension of nonessential travel imposed in March 2020. However, U.S. exports may now be at a turning point given the reopening of U.S. borders to all vaccinated travelers on November 8. We analyze the trajectory of U.S. services and how the lifting of the travel ban might contribute to the rebound of U.S. services exports.
Posted at 7:00 am in Balance of Payments, Exports, International Economics, Macroeconomics, Pandemic | Permalink
December 17, 2021
The New York Fed DSGE Model Forecast—December 2021
This post presents an update of the economic forecasts generated by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model. We describe very briefly our forecast and its change since September 2021.
November 23, 2021
Is Higher Financial Stress Lurking around the Corner for China?
Despite China’s tighter financial policies and the Evergrande troubles, Chinese financial stress measures have been remarkably stable around average levels. Chinese financial conditions, though, are affected by global markets, making it likely that low foreign financial stress conditions are blurring the state of Chinese financial markets. In this post, we parse out the domestic component of a Chinese financial stress measure to evaluate the downside risk to future economic activity.
Posted at 7:00 am in Financial Markets, International Economics, Macroeconomics | Permalink | Comments (3)
November 8, 2021
High Import Prices along the Global Supply Chain Feed Through to U.S. Domestic Prices
The prices of U.S. imported goods, excluding fuel, have increased by 6 percent since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic in February 2020. Around half of this increase is due to the substantial rise in the prices of imported industrial supplies, up nearly 30 percent. In this post, we consider the implications of the increase in import prices on U.S. industry inflation rates. In particular, we highlight how rising prices of imported intermediate inputs, like industrial supplies, can have amplified effects through the U.S. economy by increasing the production cost of goods that rely heavily on these inputs.
November 5, 2021
Hey, Economist! Tell Us about the New Applied Macroeconomics and Econometrics Center
Marco Del Negro is the director of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s new research center, AMEC, which stands for the Applied Macroeconomics and Econometrics Center. Ahead of hosting its first symposium, “Heterogeneity in Macroeconomics: Implications for Policy,” Liberty Street Economics caught up with Del Negro to learn more about his vision for AMEC.
October 22, 2021
How Much Have Consumers Spent on Imports during the Pandemic?
The return of U.S. real GDP to its pre-pandemic level in the second quarter of this year was driven by consumer spending on goods. Such spending was well above its pre-pandemic path, while spending on services was well below. Despite the surge in goods spending, domestic manufacturing has increased only modestly, leaving most of the increase in demand being filled by imports. While higher imports have been a drag on growth, the size of this drag has been moderated by the value created by the domestic transportation, wholesale, and retail sectors in selling these goods. Going forward, a rebalancing of consumer spending toward services could give a lift to growth, by shifting demand toward purchases with little import content.
October 21, 2021
Severe Supply Disruptions Are Impeding Business Activity in the Region
As the economy continues to recover from the pandemic recession, many businesses are struggling to keep up with surging demand amid widespread supply shortages and delays. While a rare phenomenon before the pandemic, supply chain disruptions have become increasingly common, with transportation of goods becoming especially tricky due to myriad issues such as clogged ports and difficulty finding truck drivers. Indeed, such supply disruptions are expected to continue into next year. Our October regional business surveys asked firms to what extent, if any, they are being affected by supply problems and what measures they have taken in response. Difficulty obtaining supplies was nearly universal among survey respondents, affecting about 80 percent of service firms and 95 percent of manufacturers. A large share of businesses in the region have responded to the disruptions by increasing their selling prices and scaling back their operations.
Posted at 7:00 am in Macroeconomics, New Jersey, New York, Pandemic, Regional Analysis, Supply Chain | Permalink
September 27, 2021
The Spillover Effects of COVID‑19 on Productivity throughout the Supply Chain
While the shocks from COVID-19 were concentrated in a handful of contact-intensive industries, they had rippling effects throughout the economy, which culminated in a considerable decline in U.S. GDP. In this post, we estimate how much of the fall in U.S. GDP during the pandemic was driven by spillover effects from the productivity losses of contact-intensive industries.
September 24, 2021
The New York Fed DSGE Model Forecast—September 2021
This post presents an update of the economic forecasts generated by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model. We describe very briefly our forecast and its change since June 2021.
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