The European Central Bank (ECB) released its 2014:Q1 Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) on February 13.
February 20, 2014
Just Released: The Inflation Outlook in the Euro Zone . . . Survey Says
Posted at 7:00 am in Euro Area, Forecasting, Inflation, International Economics, Macroeconomics | Permalink
February 19, 2014
Why Is the Job‑Finding Rate Still Low?
Fluctuations in unemployment are mostly driven by fluctuations in the job-finding prospects of unemployed workers—except at the onset of recessions, according to various research papers (see, for example, Shimer [2005, 2012] and Elsby, Hobijn, and Sahin [2010]).
February 18, 2014
Just Released: Does Transportation Spending Make Good Stimulus?
On January 14, the Transportation Research Board, an arm of the National Research Council, released a new report, Transportation Investments in Response to Economic Downturns.
Just Released: Who’s Borrowing Now? The Young and the Riskless!
According to today’s release of the New York Fed’s 2013:Q4 Household Debt and Credit Report, aggregate consumer debt increased by $241 billion in the fourth quarter, the largest quarter-to-quarter increase since 2007.
February 14, 2014
Puerto Rico Employment Trends–Not Quite as Bleak as They Appear
Puerto Rico’s economy has been in a protracted economic slump since 2006. If there were officially designated recessions for the Commonwealth, it probably would have been in one for the better part of these past seven years.
February 12, 2014
The Long and Short of It: The Impact of Unemployment Duration on Compensation Growth
How tight is the labor market? The unemployment rate is down substantially from its October 2009 peak, but two-thirds of the decline is due to people dropping out of the labor force.
February 10, 2014
The Transformation of Banking: Tying Loan Interest Rates to Borrowers’ Credit Default Swap Spreads
Banks’ practice of tying loan interest rates to borrowers’ credit default swap (CDS) spreads constitutes one of the most recent financial innovations.
February 7, 2014
Crisis Chronicles: The Commercial Credit Crisis of 1763 and Today’s Tri‑Party Repo Market
During the economic boom and credit expansion that followed the Seven Years’ War (1756-63), Berlin was the equivalent of an emerging market, Amsterdam’s merchant bankers were the primary sources of credit, and the Hamburg banking houses served as intermediaries between the two.
February 5, 2014
Comparing U.S. and Euro Area Unemployment Rates
Euro area growth has been stalled since 2010, mired in the sovereign debt crisis, while the United States has managed a slow but steady recovery following the Great Recession.
February 3, 2014
A Mis‑Leading Labor Market Indicator
The unemployment rate is a popular measure of the condition of the labor market.
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