63 posts on "inflation"
September 23, 2015
How Much Do Inflation Expectations Matter for Inflation Dynamics?
Inflation dynamics are often described by some form of the Phillips curve.
July 13, 2015
The Survey of Consumer Expectations Turns Two!
The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Survey of Consumer Expectations (SCE) turned two years old in June.
November 5, 2014
Forecasting Inflation with Fundamentals . . . It’s Hard!
Jan Groen Controlling inflation is at the core of monetary policymaking, and central bankers would like to have access to reliable inflation forecasts to assess their progress in achieving this goal. Producing accurate inflation forecasts, however, turns out not to be a trivial exercise. This posts reviews the key challenges in inflation forecasting and discusses […]
July 14, 2014
High Unemployment and Disinflation in the Euro Area Periphery Countries
Thomas Klitgaard and Richard Peck
Economists often model inflation as dependent on inflation expectations and the level of economic slack, with changes in expectations or slack leading to changes in the inflation rate. The global slowdown and the subsequent sovereign debt crisis caused the greatest divergence in unemployment rates among euro area member countries since the monetary union was founded in 1999. The pronounced differences in economic performances of euro area countries since 2008 should have led to significant differences in price behavior. That turned out to be the case, with a strong correlation evident between disinflation and labor market deterioration in euro area countries
June 6, 2014
Crisis Chronicles: Canal Mania (1793)
Today, a leisurely trip down a canal on a quiet Sunday afternoon is a reminder of an unhurried time away from the hectic pace of modern commerce.
May 16, 2014
Just Released: The New York Fed Staff Forecast—May 2014
Today, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York (FRBNY) is hosting the spring meeting of its Economic Advisory Panel (EAP).
Posted at 10:30 am in Exports, Forecasting, Inflation, Macroeconomics, Unemployment | Permalink | Comments (1)
December 5, 2013
Introducing the FRBNY Survey of Consumer Expectations: Labor Market Expectations
In the previous two blog postings in this series, we described the goals, structure, and content of the new FRBNY Survey of Consumer Expectations (SCE) and presented some findings regarding inflation expectations.
December 4, 2013
Introducing the FRBNY Survey of Consumer Expectations: Measuring Price Inflation Expectations
In this second of a series of four blog postings, we discuss the data on inflation expectations collected in our new FRBNY Survey of Consumer Expectations (SCE).
November 27, 2013
Has the Fed Stabilized the Price Level?
Marc P. Giannoni and Hannah Herman The Federal Reserve Reform Act of 1977 established the monetary policy objectives of maximum employment, stable prices, and moderate long-term interest rates. The goal of “stable prices” has long been understood to mean a low positive inflation rate. On January 25, 2012, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) explicitly […]
January 14, 2013
China’s Impact on U.S. Inflation
U.S. import prices of consumer goods shipped from China have been moderating in recent quarters, following an upward surge of 11 percent between mid-2010 and the end of 2011.
Posted at 7:00 am in Exchange Rates, Exports, Inflation, International Economics, Macroeconomics | Permalink
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