322 posts on "Liberty Street Economics"
February 10, 2020
Reading the Tea Leaves of the U.S. Business Cycle—Part One
Richard Crump, Domenico Giannone, and David Lucca discuss different conceptual approaches to dating the business cycle and study their past performance for the U.S. economy.
December 18, 2019
Banking System Vulnerability: Annual Update
A key part of understanding the stability of the U.S. financial system is to monitor leverage and funding risks in the financial sector and the way in which these vulnerabilities interact to amplify negative shocks. In this post, we provide an update of four analytical models, introduced in a Liberty Street Economics post last year, that aim to capture different aspects of banking system vulnerability.
Posted at 7:00 am in Bank Capital, Banks, Financial Institutions, Financial Intermediation, Liquidity, Systemic Risk | Permalink
December 13, 2019
Tariffs, Auto Loans, Rising College Costs, and Other Top LSE Posts of 2019
At year end, we look back at the top five most-read Liberty Street Economics posts of 2019.
November 4, 2019
Since the Financial Crisis, Aggregate Payments Have Co‑moved with Aggregate Reserves. Why?
Thomas Eisenbach, Kyra Frye, and Helene Hall take a look at what is driving the strong co-movement between aggregate payments sent over Fedwire and total aggregate reserves following the financial crisis.
October 16, 2019
Optimists and Pessimists in the Housing Market
Haoyang Liu and Christopher Palmer examine how perceptions of past housing prices may shape predictions for the future, and investigate whether these tendencies shape participation in the housing market.
January 17, 2019
The Indirect Costs of Lehman’s Bankruptcy
In our previous post, we assessed losses to customers and clients from foregone opportunities after Lehman Brothers filed for bankruptcy in September 2008. In this post, we examine losses to Lehman and its investors in anticipation of bankruptcy. For example, if bankruptcy is expected, Lehman’s earnings may decline as customers close their accounts or certain securities (such as derivatives) to which Lehman is a counterparty may lose value. We estimate these losses by analyzing Lehman’s earnings and stock, bond, and credit default swap (CDS) prices.
November 28, 2018
Is the United States Relying on Foreign Investors to Fund Its Larger Budget Deficit?
The federal tax cut and the increase in federal spending at the beginning of 2018 substantially increased the government deficit, requiring a jump in the amount of new Treasury securities offerings on financial markets to fund the gap. One question is whether the government will have to rely on foreign investors to buy these securities. Data for the first half of 2018 are now available and, so far, the country has not had to increase the pace of borrowing from abroad. The current account balance, which measures how much the United States borrows from the rest of the world, has been essentially unchanged. Instead, the tax cut has boosted business saving, allowing the United States to finance the higher federal government deficit without increasing the amount borrowed from foreign investors.
September 5, 2018
Education’s Role in Earnings, Employment, and Economic Mobility
Amid dialogue about the soaring student loan burden, questions arise about how educational characteristics (school type, selectivity, and major) affect disparities in post-college labor market outcomes. In this post, we specifically explore the impact of such school and major choices on employment, earnings, and upward economic mobility. Insight into determinants of economic disparity is key for understanding long-term consumption and inequality patterns. In addition, this gives us a window into factors that could be used to ameliorate income inequality and promote economic mobility.
Posted at 7:00 am in Education, Equitable Growth, Human Capital, Inequality, Labor Market | Permalink
July 18, 2018
The Premium for Money‑Like Assets
Several academic papers have documented investors’ willingness to pay a premium to hold money-like assets and focused on its implication for financial stability. In a New York Fed staff report, we estimate such premium using a quasi-natural experiment, the recent reform of the money market fund (MMF) industry by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).
Posted at 7:00 am in Financial Intermediation, Financial Markets, Regulation | Permalink | Comments (1)
March 24, 2017
From the Vault: Factor This In
New York Fed economists Tobias Adrian, Richard Crump, and Emanuel Moench developed a new approach for calculating the Treasury term premium. Their ACM term premia estimates have since become “increasingly canonical” in economic analysis.
Posted at 7:00 am in Forecasting | Permalink
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