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15 posts on "Richard Crump"
February 12, 2020

Reading the Tea Leaves of the U.S. Business Cycle—Part Two

New work by Richard Crump, Domenico Giannone, and David Lucca finds labor market data to be the most reliable information for dating the U.S. business cycle.

February 10, 2020

Reading the Tea Leaves of the U.S. Business Cycle—Part One

Richard Crump, Domenico Giannone, and David Lucca discuss different conceptual approaches to dating the business cycle and study their past performance for the U.S. economy.

November 18, 2019

Real Inventory Slowdowns

Inventory investment plays a central role in business cycle fluctuations. This post examines whether inventory investment amplifies or dampens economic fluctuations following a tightening in financial conditions. We find evidence supporting an amplification mechanism. This analysis suggests that inventory accumulation will be a drag on economic activity this year but provide a boost in 2020.

Posted at 7:00 am in Macroeconomics | Permalink
June 19, 2018

At the New York Fed: Conference on the Effects of Post‑Crisis Banking Reforms

Crump and Santos preview a New York Fed conference debating the efficacy of post-crisis banking reforms, looking at whether they have achieved their intended goals and considering the unintended consequences.

Posted at 7:00 am in Banks, Crisis, Nonbank (NBFI), Regulation | Permalink
March 24, 2017

From the Vault: Factor This In

New York Fed economists Tobias Adrian, Richard Crump, and Emanuel Moench developed a new approach for calculating the Treasury term premium. Their ACM term premia estimates have since become “increasingly canonical” in economic analysis.

Posted at 7:00 am in Forecasting | Permalink
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