75 posts on "Expectations"
February 19, 2019
Just Released: Introducing the SCE Household Spending Survey
Today we are releasing new data on individuals’ experiences and expectations regarding household spending. These data have been collected every four months since December 2014 as part of our Survey of Consumer Expectations (SCE). The goal of this blog post is to introduce the SCE Household Spending Survey and highlight some of its features.
December 3, 2018
Just Released: A Closer Look at Recent Tightening in Consumer Credit
The Federal Reserve Bank of New York released results today from its October 2018 SCE Credit Access Survey, which provides information on consumers’ experiences with and expectations about credit demand and credit access. The survey is fielded every four months and was previously fielded in June.
September 28, 2018
Just Released: Are Employer‑to‑Employer Transitions Yielding Wage Growth? It Depends on the Worker’s Level of Education
The rate of employer-to-employer transitions and the average wage of full-time offers rose compared with a year ago, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s July 2018 SCE Labor Market Survey. Workers’ satisfaction with their promotion opportunities improved since July 2017, while their satisfaction with wage compensation retreated slightly. Regarding expectations, the average expected wage offer (conditional on receiving one) and the reservation wage—the lowest wage at which respondents would be willing to accept a new job—both increased. The expected likelihood of moving into unemployment over the next four months showed a small uptick, which was most pronounced for female respondents.
May 23, 2018
Mixed Impacts of the Federal Tax Reform on Consumer Expectations
The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 changed the tax brackets, tax rates, credits and deductions for individuals and similarly altered corporate tax rates, deductions and exclusions. In this post, we examine whether the reform has shifted individuals’ expectations about their financial situation and the macroeconomic outlook. We also ask whether households have already started to adjust their behavior in line with their expectations. In order to answer these questions, we use novel data from a special module of the New York Fed’s Survey of Consumer Expectations (SCE) fielded in February 2018 to a nationally representative sample of heads of households.
April 18, 2018
Just Released: Is Housing a Good Investment? Where You Stand Depends on Where You Sit
Home price growth expectations remained stable relative to last year, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s 2018 SCE Housing Survey. Respondents expect mortgage rates to rise over the next year, and perhaps as a result, the share of owners who expect to refinance their mortgages over the next year declined slightly. In addition, homeowners view themselves as more likely to make investments in their homes, and renters’ perceived access to mortgage credit has tightened somewhat. Although the majority of households continue to view housing as a good financial investment, there are some persistent and large differences across regions in the pervasiveness of this view, as this post will discuss.
December 15, 2017
Political Polarization in Consumer Expectations
Following the 2016 presidential election, as noted on this blog and many other outlets, Americans’ political and economic outlook changed dramatically depending on partisan affiliation. Immediately after the election, Republicans became substantially more optimistic relative to Democrats. In this blog post, we revisit the issue of polarization over the past twelve months using data from the New York Fed’s Survey of Consumer Expectations (SCE)—also the focus of a detailed technical overview in the latest edition of the Bank’s journal, the Economic Policy Review. The overview walks readers through the design and implementation of the survey, as well as the computation of the various statistics released by the SCE team every month.
Posted at 11:00 am in Expectations | Permalink
November 30, 2017
How Much Is Priced In? Market Expectations for FOMC Rate Hikes from Different Angles
It is essential for policymakers and financial market participants to understand market expectations for the path of future policy rates because these expectations can have important implications for financial markets and the broader economy. In this post—which is meant to complement prior Liberty Street Economics posts, including Crump et al. (2014a, 2014b ) and Brodsky et al. (2016a, 2016b)—we offer some insights into estimating and interpreting market expectations for increases in the federal funds target range at upcoming meetings of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC).
November 8, 2017
Understanding Permanent and Temporary Income Shocks
The earnings of 200 million U.S. workers change each year for various reasons. Some of these changes are anticipated while others are more unexpected. Although many of these changes may be due to pleasant surprises—such as receiving salary raises and promotions—others involve disappointments—such as falling into unemployment. Arguably, some of these factors have rather short-lived effects on an individual’s earnings, whereas others may have permanent effects. Many labor economists have been interested in these various shocks to earnings. How big are the more permanent shocks to earnings? How large are they relative to those that are temporary in nature? What are the sources of these shocks? In this blog post, we exploit a novel data set that enables us to explore the properties of earnings shocks: their magnitudes as well as their origins.
August 21, 2017
Just Released: Introducing the SCE Labor Market Survey
The New York Fed has just released new data on individuals’ experiences and expectations in the labor market. These data have been collected every four months since March 2014 as part of the Survey of Consumer Expectations (SCE). In this post we introduce the SCE Labor Market Survey and highlight some of its features.
January 23, 2017
Measuring Americans’ Expectations Following the 2016 Election
While consumer confidence as measured by various surveys has increased sharply since the national election, the New York Fed’s Survey of Consumer Expectations (SCE) has shown little notable change in expectations. In this post, we show that the difference may partly reflect systematic compositional changes whereby respondents who answer a survey after the election differ in important ways from those answering the survey before the election—something which the SCE largely avoids. We also show that the flat average aggregate outlook in the SCE masks substantial regional/partisan heterogeneity in shifts in expectations.
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