78 posts on "Expectations"
April 8, 2016
Reconciling Survey‑ and Market‑Based Expectations for the Policy Rate
In our previous post [LINK], we showed that the gap between the market-implied path for the federal funds rate and the survey-implied mean expectations for the federal funds rate from the Survey of Primary Dealers (SPD) and the Survey of Market Participants (SMP) narrowed from the December survey to the January survey.
February 25, 2016
Just Released: Five New Data Series on Consumer Expectations
Today, the New York Fed is introducing a number of new data series and interactive charts reporting findings from its Survey of Consumer Expectations (SCE).
January 5, 2016
Who is Driving the Recent Decline in Consumer Inflation Expectations?
The expectations of U.S. consumers about inflation have declined to record lows over the past several months.
September 23, 2015
How Much Do Inflation Expectations Matter for Inflation Dynamics?
Inflation dynamics are often described by some form of the Phillips curve.
July 13, 2015
The Survey of Consumer Expectations Turns Two!
The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Survey of Consumer Expectations (SCE) turned two years old in June.
December 8, 2014
Global Asset Prices and the Taper Tantrum Revisited
Global asset market developments during the summer of 2013 have been attributed to changes in the outlook for U.S. monetary policy, starting with former Chairman Bernanke’s May 22 comments concerning future curtailing of the Federal Reserve’s asset purchase programs.
Posted at 7:00 am in Euro Area, Exchange Rates, Expectations, Financial Markets, International Economics, Monetary Policy | Permalink
December 5, 2014
Survey Measures of Expectations for the Policy Rate
Market prices provide timely information on policy expectations.
June 25, 2014
Do Currency Forwards Say Anything about the Future Value of the U.S. Dollar?
J. Benson Durham Currency forwards do include useful information about the future value of the U.S. dollar, but any messages are hard to decipher without tools. Just as the yield curve reflects expected short rates as well as term premiums, foreign exchange forwards embed not only anticipated depreciation but also premiums for currency risk. This […]
May 28, 2014
Rising Household Debt: Increasing Demand or Increasing Supply?
Total consumer debt continued to increase in the first quarter of this year, marking the first time since the recession that aggregate debt had grown for three consecutive quarters, according to the May 2014 Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit.
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