Understanding Permanent and Temporary Income Shocks
The earnings of 200 million U.S. workers change each year for various reasons. Some of these changes are anticipated while others are more unexpected. Although many of these changes may be due to pleasant surprises—such as receiving salary raises and promotions—others involve disappointments—such as falling into unemployment. Arguably, some of these factors have rather short-lived effects on an individual’s earnings, whereas others may have permanent effects. Many labor economists have been interested in these various shocks to earnings. How big are the more permanent shocks to earnings? How large are they relative to those that are temporary in nature? What are the sources of these shocks? In this blog post, we exploit a novel data set that enables us to explore the properties of earnings shocks: their magnitudes as well as their origins.
Just Released: More Credit Cards, Higher Limits, and . . . an Uptick in Delinquency
Household Borrowing in Historical Perspective
Do Credit Markets Watch the Waving Flag of Bankruptcy?
Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham explores how the lifting of bankruptcy flags affects borrowers’ credit scores and credit outcomes.
Just Released: 2017 SCE Housing Survey Finds Increased Optimism about Home Price Growth
Diplomas to Doorsteps: Education, Student Debt, and Homeownership
At the N.Y. Fed: Press Briefing on Household Borrowing with Close‑Up on Student Debt
An examination of recent developments in household borrowing was the focus of a press briefing held this morning at the New York Fed.
Being Up Front about the FHA’s Up‑Front Mortgage Insurance Premiums
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Just Released: Total Household Debt Nears 2008 Peak but Debt Picture Looks Much Different
The latest Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit from the New York Fed’s Center for Microeconomic Data showed a substantial increase in aggregate household debt balances in the fourth quarter of 2016 and for the year as a whole. As of December 31, 2016, total household debt stood at $12.58 trillion, an increase of $226 billion (or 1.8 percent) from the third quarter of 2016. Total household debt is now just 0.8 percent ($100 billion) below its third quarter 2008 peak of $12.68 trillion, and 12.8 percent above the second quarter 2013 trough. But debt looks very different in 2016 than it did the last time we saw this level of indebtedness.
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