253 posts on "Macroeconomics"
July 8, 2013
Do Bank Shocks Affect Aggregate Investment?
Traditionally, we have thought of the fates of specific banks as perhaps symptomatic of problems in the financial market but not as causal determinants of fluctuations in aggregate investment and other real economic activity.
June 5, 2013
Drilling Down into Core Inflation: Goods versus Services
M. Henry Linder, Richard Peach, and Robert W. Rich Among the measures of core inflation used to monitor the inflation outlook, the series excluding food and energy prices is probably the best known and most closely followed by policymakers and the public. While the conventional “ex food and energy” measure is a composite of the price changes […]
May 23, 2013
Just Released: The New York Fed Staff Forecast—May 2013
Jonathan McCarthy and Richard Peach As we did last year around this time, we’re presenting the New York Fed staff outlook for the U.S. economy to the Bank’s Economic Advisory Panel at today’s meeting. It provides an opportunity to get valuable feedback from leading economists in academia and the private sector on the staff forecast; such feedback […]
May 13, 2013
Capital Controls, Currency Wars, and International Cooperation
The debate over whether there’s a case for limiting capital flows has intensified recently—both in media and academic forums.
April 22, 2013
The Effect of Superstorm Sandy on the Macroeconomy
The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) of the U.S. Department of Commerce has reported that real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) increased at a very sluggish 0.4 percent annual rate in the final quarter of 2012.
April 15, 2013
Do Treasury Term Premia Rise around Monetary Tightenings?
Some commentators have expressed concern that Treasury yields might rise sharply once the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) begins to raise the federal funds rate (FFR), worrying, in particular, about a sudden increase in Treasury term premia.
Posted at 7:00 am in Expectations, Financial Markets, Forecasting, Macroeconomics, Unemployment | Permalink
April 3, 2013
Just Released: February Report Points to Moderate Regional Economic Growth
The February Indexes of Coincident Economic Indicators (CEIs) for New York State, New York City, and New Jersey released today show activity expanding at a moderate pace across the region.
January 14, 2013
China’s Impact on U.S. Inflation
U.S. import prices of consumer goods shipped from China have been moderating in recent quarters, following an upward surge of 11 percent between mid-2010 and the end of 2011.
Posted at 7:00 am in Exchange Rates, Exports, Inflation, International Economics, Macroeconomics | Permalink
November 26, 2012
Household Services Expenditures: An Update
This post updates and extends my July 2011 blog piece on household discretionary services expenditures.
October 1, 2012
Is U.S. Monetary Policy Seasonal?
Many economic time series display periodic and predictable patterns within each calendar year, generally referred to as seasonal effects.
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