This post presents an update of the economic forecasts generated by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model. We describe very briefly our forecast and its change since June 2019. As usual, we wish to remind our readers that the DSGE model forecast is not an official New York Fed forecast, but only an input to the Research staff’s overall forecasting process. For more information about the model and variables discussed here, see our DSGE model Q & A.
September 30, 2019
September 25, 2019
Minimum Wage Impacts along the New York‑Pennsylvania Border
Bram, Karahan, and Moore gauge the effects of New York’s recent minimum-wage hikes by comparing employment and average earnings levels in low-wage sectors in New York-Pennsylvania border counties.
September 23, 2019
Just Released: Transitions to Unemployment Tick Up in Latest SCE Labor Market Survey
The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s July 2019 SCE Labor Market Survey shows a year-over-year rise in employer-to-employer transitions as well as an increase in transitions into unemployment. Satisfaction with promotion opportunities and wage compensation were largely unchanged, while satisfaction with non-wage benefits retreated. Regarding expectations, the average expected wage offer (conditional on receiving one) and the average reservation wage—the lowest wage at which respondents would be willing to accept a new job—both increased. Expectations regarding job transitions were largely stable.
Once Upon a Time in the Banking Sector: Historical Insights into Banking Competition
How does competition among banks affect credit growth and real economic growth? In addition, how does it affect financial stability? In this blog post, we derive insights into this important set of questions from novel data on the U.S. banking system during the nineteenth century.
Posted at 7:00 am in Banks, Crisis, Economic History, Financial Institutions, Financial Intermediation | Permalink
September 4, 2019
The Transmission of Monetary Policy and the Sophistication of Money Market Fund Investors
In December 2015, the Federal Reserve tightened monetary policy for the first time in almost ten years and, over the following three years, it raised interest rates eight more times, increasing the target range for the federal funds rate from 0-25 basis points (bps) to 225-250 bps. To what extent are changes in the fed funds rate transmitted to cash investors, and are there differences in the pass-through between retail and institutional investors? In this post, we describe the impact of recent rate increases on the yield paid by money market funds (MMFs) to their investors and show that the impact varies depending on investors’ sophistication.
Posted at 7:00 am in Federal Reserve, Financial Institutions, Financial Intermediation, Monetary Policy | Permalink | Comments (3)
August 21, 2019
Online Estimation of DSGE Models
Our macroeconomists explain their approach for parallel and “online” estimation of DSGE models using sequential Monte Carlo techniques and share a GitHub link for obtaining their SMC Julia code.
August 14, 2019
Are U.S. Tariffs Turning Vietnam into an Export Powerhouse?
The imposition of Section 301 tariffs on about half of China’s exports to the United States has coincided with a fall in imports from China and gains for other countries. The U.S.-China trade conflict also appears to be accelerating an ongoing shift in foreign direct investment (FDI) from China to other emerging markets, particularly in Asia. Within the region, Vietnam is often cited as a clear beneficiary of these trends, a rising economy that could displace China, to some extent, in global supply chains. In this note, we examine the data and conclude that Vietnam is indeed gaining market share, but is too small to replace China anytime soon.
August 13, 2019
Just Released: Mind the Gap in Delinquency Rates
Total household debt balances increased by $192 billion in the second quarter of 2019, boosted primarily by a $162 billion gain in mortgage installment balances, according to the latest Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit from the New York Fed’s Center for Microeconomic Data (the mortgage installment balances exclude home equity lines of credit, which are reported separately and have been declining in balance for some time). The new mortgage total of $9.4 trillion is slightly higher than the previous high in mortgage balances from the third quarter of 2008 in nominal terms.
August 7, 2019
Does a Data Quirk Inflate China’s Travel Services Deficit?
China international trade service balance of payments imports exports tourism current account balance
July 19, 2019
At the New York Fed: Research Conference on FinTech
Financial technology (“FinTech”) refers to the evolving intersection of financial services and technology. In March, the New York Fed hosted “The First New York Fed Research Conference on FinTech” to understand the implications of FinTech developments on issues that are relevant to the Fed’s mandates such as lending, payments, and regulation. In this post, we summarize the principal themes and findings of the conference.
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