25 posts on "forecasting"
September 30, 2019
The New York Fed DSGE Model Forecast—September 2019
This post presents an update of the economic forecasts generated by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model. We describe very briefly our forecast and its change since June 2019. As usual, we wish to remind our readers that the DSGE model forecast is not an official New York Fed forecast, but only an input to the Research staff’s overall forecasting process. For more information about the model and variables discussed here, see our DSGE model Q & A.
June 21, 2019
The New York Fed DSGE Model Forecast—June 2019
The June model forecast for 2019-22 is summarized in the table below, alongside the January forecast, and in the following charts. The model uses quarterly macroeconomic data released through the first quarter of 2019, and financial data and staff forecasts available through May 31, 2019.
February 8, 2019
The New York Fed DSGE Model Forecast—January 2019
This post presents an update of the economic forecasts generated by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model. We describe very briefly our forecast and its change since October 2018. As usual, we wish to remind our readers that the DSGE model forecast is not an official New York Fed forecast, but only an input to the Research staff’s overall forecasting process. For more information about the model and variables discussed here, see our DSGE model Q & A.
October 24, 2018
The New York Fed DSGE Model Forecast—October 2018
This post presents an update of the economic forecasts generated by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model. We describe very briefly our forecast and its change since July 2018. As usual, we wish to remind our readers that the DSGE model forecast is not an official New York Fed forecast, but only an input to the Research staff’s overall forecasting process. For more information about the model and variables discussed here, see our DSGE model Q & A.
June 16, 2017
Hey, Economist! How Do You Forecast the Present?
New York Fed macroeconomists have been sharing their “nowcast” of GDP growth on the Bank’s public website since April 2016. Now, they’ve launched an interactive version of the Nowcasting Report, which updates the point forecast each week, but also helps users better visualize the impact of the flow of incoming data on the estimate produced by the model. Tables offer more detail on the data series informing the estimate. The interactive version also reports the staff nowcast back to January 2016, a longer nowcast history than has previously been available. Cross-media editor Anna Snider spoke to Domenico Giannone, Argia Sbordone, and Andrea Tambalotti—economists who developed the model underlying the report and produce estimates weekly with the help of research analysts Brandyn Bok and Daniele Caratelli—about nowcasting and its role in the policymaking process.
November 5, 2014
Forecasting Inflation with Fundamentals . . . It’s Hard!
Jan Groen Controlling inflation is at the core of monetary policymaking, and central bankers would like to have access to reliable inflation forecasts to assess their progress in achieving this goal. Producing accurate inflation forecasts, however, turns out not to be a trivial exercise. This posts reviews the key challenges in inflation forecasting and discusses […]
Posted at 7:00 am in Forecasting, Inflation, Macroeconomics, Monetary Policy, Unemployment, Wages | Permalink | Comments (4)
September 26, 2014
The FRBNY DSGE Model Forecast
The U.S. economy has been in a gradual but slow recovery. Will the future be more of the same?
Posted at 10:00 am in DSGE, Fed Funds, Forecasting, Macroeconomics, Monetary Policy | Permalink | Comments (3)
September 25, 2014
An Assessment of the FRBNY DSGE Model’s Real-Time Forecasts, 2010-13
The previous post in this series showed how the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s DSGE model can be used to provide an interpretation of the Great Recession and the slow recovery.
September 22, 2014
Forecasting with the FRBNY DSGE Model
The term DSGE, which stands for dynamic stochastic general equilibrium, encompasses a very broad class of macro models, from the standard real business cycle (RBC) model of Nobel prizewinners Kydland and Prescott to New Keynesian monetary models like the one of Christiano, Eichenbaum, and Evans.
May 14, 2012
The Great Moderation, Forecast Uncertainty, and the Great Recession
The Great Recession of 2007-09 was a dramatic macroeconomic event, marked by a severe contraction in economic activity and a significant fall in inflation.
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