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2 posts on "long-run r*"
December 21, 2023

Where Is R‑Star and the End of the Refi Boom: The Top 5 Posts of 2023

The Top 5 Posts of 2023 Graphic

The topics covered on Liberty Street Economics in 2023 hit many themes, reflecting the range of research interests of the more than sixty staff economists at the New York Fed and their coauthors. We published 122 posts this year, exploring important subjects such as equitable growth and the economic impacts of extreme weather, alongside our deep and long-standing coverage of topics like inflation, banking system vulnerability, international economics, and monetary policy effects. As we close out the year, we’re taking a look back at the top five posts. See you again in 2024.

Posted at 7:00 am in Banks, Household Finance, Treasury | Permalink
August 9, 2023

The Post‑Pandemic r*

Decorative: U.S. dollars and surgical masks in a still life.

The debate about the natural rate of interest, or r*, sometimes overlooks the point that there is an entire term structure of r* measures, with short-run estimates capturing current economic conditions and long-run estimates capturing more secular factors. The whole term structure of r* matters for policy: shorter run measures are relevant for gauging how restrictive or expansionary current policy is, while longer run measures are relevant when assessing terminal rates. This two-post series covers the evolution of both in the aftermath of the pandemic, with today’s post focusing especially on long-run measures and tomorrow’s post on short-run r*.

Posted at 7:00 am in DSGE, Forecasting, Pandemic | Permalink | Comments (1)
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