Do Expected, in addition to Spot, U.S. Treasury Term Premiums Matter?
J. Benson Durham The spot term premium is the extra compensation investors require, today, to own long-term as opposed to short-term risk-free debt. The expected term premium is what they anticipate demanding later. Notably, the two don’t necessarily move in the same direction. Just as near-term expected short rates could decline with surprisingly easy monetary […]
When Are Equity Investors Paid to Take Risk?
Most gauges of “the” equity risk premium have declined since the financial crisis but remain elevated, even as broad market indexes near record highs.
Treasury Term Premia: 1961‑Present
Treasury yields can be decomposed into two components: expectations of the future path of short-term Treasury yields and the Treasury term premium.
Can Investors Use Momentum to Beat the U.S. Treasury Market?
Decades of research have produced a library on the “momentum” anomaly in markets. Momentum refers to the tendency for financial assets with the best prior returns to continue to outperform, at least for a time.
No Good Deals—No Bad Models
The recent financial crisis has highlighted the significance of unhedgable, illiquid positions in complex securities for individual financial institutions and for the global financial system as a whole.
Just Released: The 2013 SOMA Annual Report in a Historical Context
Alyssa Cambron, Michael Fleming, Deborah Leonard, Grant Long, and Julie Remache In August 2013, we wrote a series of blog posts on the use of the Federal Reserve’s System Open Market Account (SOMA) portfolio in monetary policy operations. Since the onset of the financial crisis, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has increased the size […]
Liquidity Policies and Systemic Risk
One of the most innovative and potentially far-reaching consequences of regulatory reform since the financial crisis has been the development of liquidity regulations for the banking system.
On Fire‑Sale Externalities, TARP Was Close to Optimal
Imagine that many large and levered banks suffer heavy losses and must quickly sell assets to reduce their leverage. We expect the market price of the assets sold to decline, at least temporarily.
Lunch Anyone? Volatility on the Tokyo Stock Exchange around the Lunch Break on May 23, 2013, and Stock Market Circuit Breakers
Stock market circuit breakers halt trading activity on a single stock or an entire exchange if a sudden large price move occurs.
Mixing and Matching Collateral in Dealer Banks
The failure or near-collapse of some of the largest dealer banks on Wall Street in 2008 highlighted the profound complexity of the industry.