The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Center for Microeconomic Data today released its Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit for the second quarter of 2016.
August 9, 2016
Just Released: Recent Developments in Consumer Credit Card Borrowing
Posted at 11:05 am in Credit, Household Finance, Inflation, Puerto Rico, Regional Analysis | Permalink
Migration in Puerto Rico: Is There a Brain Drain?
Given Puerto Rico’s long-term economic malaise and ongoing fiscal crisis, it is no wonder that out-migration of the Island’s residents has picked up.
Posted at 7:00 am in Human Capital, Labor Market, Puerto Rico, Regional Analysis | Permalink | Comments (4)
August 8, 2016
Restoring Economic Growth in Puerto Rico: Introduction to the Series
The difficult economic and financial issues facing the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico have remained very much in the news since our post on options for addressing its fiscal problems appeared last fall. That post was itself a follow-up on a series of analyses, starting with a 2012 report that detailed the economic challenges facing the Commonwealth. In 2014, we extended that analysis with an update where we focused more closely on the fiscal challenges facing the Island. As the problems deepened, we have continued to examine important related subjects ranging from positive revisions in employment data, to the understanding emigration, and to considering how the Commonwealth’s public debts stack up. In most of this work, we have focused on how policymakers could help to address the immediate issues facing the Island and its people. The U.S. Congress and the Obama Administration took action in June to provide a framework to help address Puerto Rico’s fiscal crisis. But much remains to be done to address these ongoing problems, which represent a significant impediment to economic growth in the short run. It also seems important to revisit the question of the prospects for reviving longer-run growth in the Commonwealth. These concerns were underscored by projections published by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in the April edition of the World Economic Outlook that forecast Puerto Rico’s real GDP and population to decline through 2021.
Posted at 7:00 am in Credit, Employment, Fed Funds, Fiscal Policy, Forecasting, Inflation, International Economics, Puerto Rico, Regional Analysis | Permalink | Comments (1)
August 5, 2016
Historical Echoes: Tickety‑Tock, the Bank with the Clock, or Not Just a Pretty Face
Which bank in the United States is “the bank with the clock?” More than one bank goes by, or once went by, that nickname, and many more could be called that in a passing reference. One was the Watertown National Bank at 200 Washington Street in Watertown, New York. From a January 1968 article titled “Familiar Face is Gone: Historic Bank Clock Retired”:
Because of the timepiece, the banking institution was for years identified as “the bank with the clock.” When the Watertown National Bank moved . . . in 1943, the clock was retained and placed on the building marking the bank’s relocated quarters. The “bank with the clock” trademark was eventually dropped with a change in name of the banking institutions.
Posted at 7:00 am | Permalink
August 3, 2016
The Reluctance of Firms to Interview the Long‑Term Unemployed
Estimates from the Current Population Survey show that the probability of finding a job declines the longer one is unemployed.
August 1, 2016
Which Households Have Negative Wealth?
At some point in its life a household’s total debt may exceed its total assets, in which case it has “negative wealth.” Even if this status is temporary, it may affect the household’s ability to save for durable goods, restrict access to further credit, and may require living in a state of limited consumption. Detailed analysis of the holdings of negative-wealth households, however, is a topic that has received little attention. In particular, relatively little is known about the characteristics of such households or about what drives negative wealth. A better understanding of these factors could also prove valuable in explaining and forecasting the persistence of wealth inequality. In this post, we take advantage of a special module of the Survey of Consumer Expectations to shed light on this issue.
July 18, 2016
Forecasting Interest Rates over the Long Run
In a previous post, we showed how market rates on U.S. Treasuries violate the expectations hypothesis because of time-varying risk premia.
Posted at 7:00 am in Expectations, Financial Markets, Fiscal Policy, Forecasting, Household Finance, Inflation, Treasury | Permalink | Comments (1)
July 15, 2016
Historical Echoes: The Fed’s Cuban Connection
Did you know that the Federal Reserve once had not one, but two offices in Cuba?
Implementing Monetary Policy Post‑Crisis: What Do We Need to Know?
Columbia University’s School of International and Public Affairs and the New York Fed co-sponsored a recent workshop to discuss important issues related to monetary policy implementation. The May 4 event, held at Columbia, supports the extended effort that the Federal Reserve has undertaken to evaluate potential long-run monetary policy implementation frameworks, which was announced at a Federal Open Market Committee meeting last July.
Posted at 7:00 am in Monetary Policy | Permalink
July 13, 2016
Could Liquidity Regulation Revive the Bank Lending Channel?
Dong Beom Choi and Ulysses Velasquez How does monetary policy affect spending in the economy? The economic literature suggests two main channels of monetary transmission: the money or interest rate channel and the bank lending channel. The first view focuses on changes in real interest rates resulting from a shift in monetary policy and corresponding […]
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