The New York Fed DSGE Model Forecast—June 2022
This post presents an update of the economic forecasts generated by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model. We describe very briefly our forecast and its change since March 2022.
New York Fed Surveys: Business Activity in the Region Sees Historic Plunge in April
Indicators of regional business activity plunged to historic lows in early April, as efforts to slow the spread of the coronavirus kept many people at home and shut down large parts of the regional economy, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s two business surveys. The headline index for both surveys plummeted to nearly -80, well below any historical precedent including the depths of the Great Recession. About 60 percent of service firms and more than half of manufacturers reported at least a partial shutdown of their operations thus far. Layoffs were widespread, with half of all businesses surveyed reporting lower employment levels in early April.
Historical Echoes: That Pesky, Well‑Overdue Library Book
The “extremely overdue library book” has had a long run as a sitcom trope. As a source of humor, the ludicrously large library late fine pays off in at least two ways: first, there’s the enormity of the fine when compared with the insignificant monetary value of the book itself (paving the way for jokes about inflation and compound interest); and second, there’s the idea of the “criminality” of the offender, who is probably unlikely to commit any other kind of crime, with the concomitant image of “library police” (or actual police) coming after the negligent borrower . . . One day, that could be you, dear reader.
Historical Echoes: “Burns Money” on What’s My Line?
In a May 2014 Historical Echoes post, Marja Vitti describes what happened to money too old to be left in circulation: it was incinerated by the Federal Reserve Banks until passage of the Clean Air Act of 1970, after which the money was shredded.
The Liberty Street Economics Blog: An Update on Our Experience
Since the launch of the Liberty Street Economics blog in March 2011, our economists have published more than eighty-five posts on a range of issues such as financial sector reform, the global role of the dollar, the federal debt ceiling, and the U.S.-China trade imbalance.
Welcome to Liberty Street Economics
On behalf of the Research and Statistics Group of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, we welcome you to our new blog, Liberty Street Economics, named after the street where the New York Fed is located.