196 posts on "Monetary Policy"
April 7, 2016
How Do Survey‑ and Market‑Based Expectations of the Policy Rate Differ?
Over the past year, market pricing on interest rate derivatives linked to the federal funds rate have suggested a significantly lower expected path of the policy rate than responses to the New York Fed’s Survey of Primary Dealers (SPD) and Survey of Market Participants (SMP). However, this gap narrowed considerably from December 2015 to January 2016, before widening slightly at longer horizons in March. This post argues that the narrowing between December and January was mostly the result of survey respondents placing greater weight on lower rate outcomes, while the subsequent widening in February and March likely reflects an increased demand for insurance against states of the world where the policy rate remains at very low levels.
March 28, 2016
How the Fed Smoothed Quarter‑End Volatility in the Fed Funds Market
The federal funds market is an important source of short-term funding for U.S. banks.
February 26, 2016
From the Vault: The Path of Interest Rates
Numerous posts in the Liberty Street Economics archive cover the measurement and dynamics of the natural rate of interest as well as its use as a benchmark for calibrating monetary policy settings.
February 4, 2016
How Do Central Bank Balance Sheets Change in Times of Crisis?
The 2007-09 financial crisis, and the monetary policy response to it, have greatly increased the size of central bank balance sheets around the world.
February 3, 2016
What Is the Composition of Central Bank Balance Sheets in Normal Times?
There has been unusually high activity on central banks’ balance sheets in recent years.
February 2, 2016
Counterparties and Collateral Requirements for Implementing Monetary Policy
What types of counterparties can borrow from or lend to a central bank, and what kind of collateral must they possess in order to receive a loan? These are two key aspects of a central bank’s monetary policy implementation framework. Since at least the nineteenth century, it has been understood that an important role of central banks is to lend to solvent but illiquid institutions, particularly during a crisis, as this provides liquidity insurance to the financial system. They also provide liquidity to markets during normal times as a means to implement monetary policy. Central banks that rely on scarcity of reserves need to adjust the supply of liquidity in the market, as described in our previous post[add link]. In this post, we focus on liquidity provision related to the conduct of monetary policy .
February 1, 2016
Standard Elements of a Monetary Policy Implementation Framework
Emily Eisner, Antoine Martin, and Ylva Søvik In the minutes of the July 2015 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, the chair indicated that Federal Reserve staff would undertake an extended effort to evaluate potential long-run monetary policy implementation frameworks. But what is a central bank’s monetary policy implementation framework? In a series of four […]
December 21, 2015
The Effect of Fed Funds Rate Hikes on Consumer Borrowing Costs
Nina Boyarchenko, Sooji Kim, and Matthew Plosser The target federal funds rate has hovered around zero for nearly a decade, and observers are questioning what effect an increase could have on both the financial markets and the real economy. In this post, we examine the historical reaction of loan rates to target rate increases. Specifically, […]
December 1, 2015
The FRBNY DSGE Model Forecast—November 2015
This post presents an update of the economic forecasts implied by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s (FRBNY) dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model, which we first introduced in a series of blog posts in September 2014.
November 23, 2015
End of the Road? Impact of Interest Rate Changes on the Automobile Market
The Federal Reserve has kept interest rates at historic lows for the last six years, but eventually rates will return to their long-term averages.
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