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88 posts on "Regional Analysis"

March 01, 2017

Just Released: The Regional Economy Is off to a Good Start in 2017



LSE_2017_Just Released: The Regional Economy Is off to a Good Start in 2017

The New York Fed’s latest Beige Book report, released this afternoon, shows the regional economy gathering steam in early 2017. The report, based on information collected through February 17, suggests the regional economy, which had been essentially flat for the second half of 2016, saw growth pick up to a modest pace at the start of the year. Manufacturers, in particular, note a sharp rise in activity, as do businesses in wholesale distribution and transportation. Consequently, the market for industrial and warehouse space was pretty robust in the opening weeks of 2017. Meanwhile, businesses in most service industries continue to report steady to moderately expanding activity. And even though consumer spending has remained fairly subdued, consumer confidence climbed to highs not seen in more than a decade. All in all, it appears the regional economy has gotten off to a good start in 2017.

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Posted by Blog Author at 2:15 PM in Regional Analysis | Permalink | Comments (0)

December 16, 2016

Just Released: Regional Business Surveys Point to Growth in Economic Activity



LSE_BLS_2016_survey_460_art

The latest editions of the New York Fed’s two regional business surveys point to improvement in business conditions and widespread optimism about the near-term outlook. The December Business Leaders Survey of regional service firms, released today, shows service sector activity steadying after declining for a number of months, and the December Empire State Manufacturing Survey, released yesterday, indicates that manufacturing activity increased for the first time since the summer.

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Posted by Blog Author at 8:45 AM in Macroecon, Regional Analysis | Permalink | Comments (0)

November 18, 2016

Just Released: Press Briefing on the Survey of Consumer Expectations



LSE_Just Released: Press Briefing on the Survey of Consumer Expectations

The New York Fed’s Survey of Consumer Expectations (SCE) collects information on household heads’ economic expectations and behavior. In particular, the survey covers respondents’ views on how inflation, spending, credit access, and the housing and labor markets will evolve over time. The SCE yields important insights that inform our monetary policy decisions. This morning, President Dudley joined New York Fed economists to brief the press on the design of the SCE and the latest releases of survey results. President Dudley introduced the briefing by speaking about the benefits of measuring consumers’ expectations.

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October 19, 2016

Lower Manhattan since 9/11: A Study in Resilience

Jason Bram and Joelle Scally

LSE_Lower Manhattan since 9/11: A Study in Resilience

The 9/11 terrorist attack on the World Trade Center left a deep scar on New York City and the nation, most particularly in terms of the human toll. In addition to the lives lost and widespread health problems suffered by many others—in particular by first responders and recovery workers—the destruction of billions of dollars’ worth of property and infrastructure led to severe disruptions to the local economy. Nowhere were these disruptions more severe and long-lasting than in the neighborhoods closest to Ground Zero.

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Posted by Blog Author at 10:00 AM in Employment, Expectations, New York City, Regional Analysis | Permalink | Comments (0)

October 17, 2016

What Caused the Decline in Interstate Migration in the United States?



LSE_What Caused the Decline in Interstate Migration in the United States?

Geographic mobility is thought to be important both for economic mobility and for the efficiency of a labor market in allocating the right people to the right jobs. Accordingly, the willingness of the U.S. workforce to move is a factor behind the greater dynamism of the U.S. labor market compared to Europe. While Europeans tend to be more reluctant to move to distant places within their respective countries, the idea of moving across state borders for a job has been woven into the fabric of the American Dream. However, the image of the United States as a mobile nation has changed substantially over recent decades. This post investigates the role that demographic shifts—in particular, the nation’s aging population—have played in the recent decline in interstate migration.

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Posted by Blog Author at 7:00 AM in Labor Economics, Regional Analysis, Unemployment | Permalink | Comments (4)

August 18, 2016

Just Released: Job Growth in the Region



LSE_Just Released: Job Growth in the Region


At today’s economic press briefing, we provided an update on regional economic conditions, with a particular focus on job growth in the region, and highlighted an important emerging labor market trend: the return of middle-wage jobs.

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Posted by Blog Author at 10:00 AM in Labor Economics, Regional Analysis | Permalink | Comments (2)

August 16, 2016

Just Released: Firms Assess the Effects of the Affordable Care Act



The Federal Reserve Bank of New York this morning released the results of its August 2016 business surveys, including the supplemental survey report on health coverage costs and the effects of the Affordable Care Act (ACA) on firms in the region. Health care costs increased 8.5 percent this year and are expected to rise by 10 percent in 2017, based on the median responses of surveyed businesses. Among the more widely mentioned factors that firms said were contributing to higher costs were increased premiums from insurance providers, higher costs for prescription drugs, the ACA, and an aging workforce.

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Posted by Blog Author at 8:35 AM in Regional Analysis | Permalink | Comments (0)

August 12, 2016

Puerto Rico’s Evolving Household Debts



LSE_Puerto Rico’s Evolving Household Debts

Debt and its performance play a critical role in economic development. The enormous increase in mortgage debt that took place during the run-up to the 2007 financial crisis and the contribution of that debt to the crisis underscore the importance of household debt to financial stability and economic growth. While we regularly report on household debt at the national level and for selected states in our Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit, we have not reported separately on Puerto Rico. This post introduces metrics on household debt in Puerto Rico, which we plan to update regularly. Like our other reports on household debt, this analysis uses our FRBNY Consumer Credit Panel, which is based on anonymized credit data from Equifax. We also take a look at some data for Puerto Rico’s banking sector to complete the picture of household debt for the Commonwealth.

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Posted by Blog Author at 7:00 AM in Credit, Household Finance, Puerto Rico, Regional Analysis | Permalink | Comments (0)

August 11, 2016

Human Capital and Education in Puerto Rico



LSE_Human Capital and Education in Puerto Rico

Educational attainment is an important element of human capital; however a series of recent papers highlights the crucial role of the quality of education—which determines the skills actually learned, rather than the number of years spent in a classroom—as a main driver of growth. In fact, Hanushek and Woessmann argue that the importance of more appropriately measuring skills is seen in the very tight relationship between quality of skills, or knowledge capital, and growth. Moreover, the researchers state, “The knowledge capital–growth relationship suggests little mystery for East Asia, Latin America, or other regions: Growth rates are accounted for by cognitive skills.” Similarly, “Considering knowledge capital dramatically increases our ability to account for differences in growth.”

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Posted by Blog Author at 7:00 AM in Education, Human Capital, Puerto Rico, Regional Analysis | Permalink | Comments (3)

August 10, 2016

Puerto Rico’s Shrinking Labor Force Participation



LSE_Puerto Rico’s Shrinking Labor Force Participation

A key concern about Puerto Rico’s prospects is that its labor force participation rate, which is the percentage of the adult population either working or looking for work, has fallen sharply. Looking at the data shows that this decline cannot be attributed to any particular demographic segment. Instead, it is the consequence of an aging population, accelerated by a falling birth rate and outmigration of a relatively young cohort. Expected demographic trends will continue to put downward pressure on the participation rate over the medium term, creating a challenging headwind for the economy to overcome.

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