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69 posts on "Regional Analysis"

December 02, 2015

Just Released: Job Market Remains Tight as Regional Economy Slows



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The New York Fed’s latest Beige Book report indicates that regional economic growth slowed in October and early November, while the job market stayed strong and prices remained stable. This latest report, based on information collected through November 20, suggests that economic activity in the Second District has leveled off since the end of the third quarter. A growing number of sectors appear to be facing increased headwinds from a strong dollar. In particular, the manufacturing sector, which was one of the weakest sectors in the Second District during the third quarter, has continued to contract at the start of the fourth quarter. Moreover, fewer and fewer manufacturing sector contacts are optimistic about the near-term outlook.

Continue reading "Just Released: Job Market Remains Tight as Regional Economy Slows" »

Posted by Blog Author at 2:15 PM in Regional Analysis | Permalink | Comments (0)

November 05, 2015

How Did Quantitative Easing Interact with Regional Inequality?



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Income, or wealth, inequality is not something that central bankers generally worry about when setting monetary policy, the goals of which are to maintain price stability and promote full employment. Nevertheless, it is important to understand whether and how monetary policy affects inequality, and this topic has recently generated quite a bit of discussion and academic research, with some arguing that the Federal Reserve’s expansionary policy of recent years has exacerbated inequality (see, for instance, here or here), while others reach the opposite conclusion (see here or here). This disagreement can be attributed in part to the different channels through which expansionary monetary policy can affect inequality: its effect on asset prices would tend to increase inequality, while its effect on labor incomes and employment would likely decrease inequality. In this post, I study one particular channel through which Fed policies may have disparate effects—namely, mortgage refinancing—and I focus on dispersion across locations in the United States.

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November 03, 2015

Some Options for Addressing Puerto Rico’s Fiscal Problems



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Puerto Rico’s economic and fiscal challenges have been an important focus of work done here at the New York Fed, resulting in two reports (2012 and 2014), several blog posts and one paper in our Current Issues series in just the last few years. As the Commonwealth’s problems have deepened, the Obama administration and Congress have begun discussing potential approaches to addressing them. In this post, we update our previous estimates of Puerto Rico’s outstanding debt and discuss the effect that various forms of bankruptcy protection might have on the Commonwealth.

Continue reading "Some Options for Addressing Puerto Rico’s Fiscal Problems" »

Posted by Blog Author at 12:00 PM in Fiscal Policy, Regional Analysis | Permalink | Comments (2)

October 16, 2015

Just Released: Regional Service Sector Resilient even as Manufacturing Slumps



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The October 2015 Business Leaders Survey of regional service firms, released today, paints a considerably more benign picture of local business conditions than the more troubling October 2015 Empire State Manufacturing Survey, released yesterday. The two surveys point to diverging trends in the regional economy: manufacturing firms report that business activity has weakened, on balance, for the third month in a row, while regional service firms, though far from euphoric, remain slightly positive, on balance, about business trends. One of the reasons for this divergence seems to be the strong dollar, which has had negative effects on far more manufacturers than service firms, according to our surveys.

Continue reading "Just Released: Regional Service Sector Resilient even as Manufacturing Slumps" »

Posted by Blog Author at 8:45 AM in Macroecon, Regional Analysis | Permalink | Comments (0)

September 04, 2015

From the Vault: Understanding Puerto Rico’s Economic Challenges



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Recent news examining the toll that a decade of stagnation, out-migration, and heavy debt has taken on Puerto Rico draws on work summarized in two Liberty Street Economics posts. For example, the New York Times cited our analysis of the U.S. Commonwealth’s ongoing population decline. In an April post, economists Jaison Abel and Richard Deitz put numbers on the exodus, reporting that over the last ten years, Puerto Rico’s population has dwindled to 3.6 million, a decline of more than 5 percent, which they attribute in part to falling birthrates but mostly to migration to the U.S. mainland.

Continue reading "From the Vault: Understanding Puerto Rico’s Economic Challenges" »

Posted by Blog Author at 7:00 AM in Regional Analysis | Permalink | Comments (0)

August 26, 2015

Just Released: An Update on Regional Economic Conditions Provided at Our Economic Press Briefing



Today’s Economic Press Briefing at the New York Fed presented our economic outlook for New York, Northern New Jersey, and Puerto Rico. We showed that many parts of the region have bounced back quite well from the Great Recession and are growing at a solid clip, including New York City, Buffalo, and Albany. The picture is a bit different in other parts of the region, though. In both Northern New Jersey and the Lower Hudson Valley, employment has been growing steadily, but jobs are still not back to their pre-recession peak. And there are also pockets of significant weakness, such as Binghamton, Puerto Rico, and the U.S. Virgin Islands, which have yet to show any meaningful signs of recovery.

Continue reading "Just Released: An Update on Regional Economic Conditions Provided at Our Economic Press Briefing" »

Posted by Blog Author at 10:00 AM in Regional Analysis | Permalink | Comments (0)

July 06, 2015

Will Silicon Alley Be the Next Silicon Valley?



Update: We broadened our definition of Silicon Valley and present more complete data on that region’s trends in the comments section of this post. In the body of the piece, we also corrected the NAICS code for Scientific R&D Services.

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For at least the past few decades, New York City’s economy, both its booms and busts, have been driven primarily by the finance sector, or more specifically the securities industry (a.k.a. Wall Street). In contrast, the city’s current economic boom—one of the strongest on record—has seen virtually no job growth on Wall Street. Much of the job creation has been in lower-paying sectors like retail trade, restaurants and hotels, and health care and social assistance, with some of the fastest job growth going on in what would be considered “information technology” industries—jobs that pay quite well for the most part. But how big is the Big Apple’s “tech sector,” how fast has it been growing, and how does it stack up against other tech hubs across the United States? Before addressing these questions, we must first answer a more fundamental question: what exactly is the tech sector?

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Posted by Blog Author at 7:00 AM in Regional Analysis | Permalink | Comments (5)

April 17, 2015

At the New York Fed: Chapter 9 and Alternatives for Distressed Municipalities and States



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On Tuesday, April 14, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York hosted an all-day workshop entitled Chapter 9 and Alternatives for Distressed Municipalities and States. The workshop was jointly organized and sponsored by the Volcker Alliance and George Mason University’s State and Local Government Leadership Center. The event brought together key experts, practitioners, and researchers on the subject of fiscal distress at the state and local level. The aim of the session was to foster discussion on the role of Chapter 9 of the U.S. Bankruptcy Code, alternatives for distressed governments, and strategies to avoid stress and achieve good fiscal outcomes.

Continue reading "At the New York Fed: Chapter 9 and Alternatives for Distressed Municipalities and States" »

Posted by Blog Author at 7:00 AM in Fiscal Policy, Regional Analysis | Permalink | Comments (0)

April 15, 2015

Just Released: April Empire State Manufacturing Survey Indicates Sluggish Conditions



The April 2015 Empire State Manufacturing Survey, released today, points to continued weakness in New York’s manufacturing sector. The survey’s headline general business conditions index turned slightly negative for the first time since December, falling 8 points to -1.2 in a sign that the growth in manufacturing had paused. The new orders index—a bellwether of demand for manufactured goods—was also negative, pointing to a modest decline in orders for a second consecutive month. Employment growth slowed, too. The Empire Survey has been signaling sluggish growth since October of last year after fairly strong readings from May through September.

Continue reading "Just Released: April Empire State Manufacturing Survey Indicates Sluggish Conditions" »

Posted by Blog Author at 8:45 AM in Regional Analysis | Permalink | Comments (0)

March 20, 2015

Just Released: Benchmark Revisions Paint a Brighter Picture of (Most of) the Regional Economy



New York City

Every March, the Bureau of Labor Statistics releases benchmark revisions of state and local payroll employment for the preceding two years. While employment data are released monthly for all 50 states and many metropolitan areas, the monthly figures are estimated based on a sample of firms. The annual revisions are based on an almost complete count of workers (now available up through mid-2014) from the records of the unemployment insurance system and re-estimated data for the remainder of the year. In this post, we briefly summarize the mixed but mostly stronger performance in the region in 2014 indicated by these employment revisions. We highlight the most pronounced changes across our District—highlighted by New York City’s even stronger-looking boom—using the percentage change in total employment from the fourth quarter of 2013 to the fourth quarter of 2014 as the metric.

Continue reading "Just Released: Benchmark Revisions Paint a Brighter Picture of (Most of) the Regional Economy" »

Posted by Blog Author at 7:00 AM in Regional Analysis | Permalink | Comments (0)
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