Liberty Street Economics
Liberty Street Economics
Return to Liberty Street Economics Home Page

2 posts on "GDP growth"
February 15, 2023

What Is “Outlook-at-Risk?”

Nina Boyarchenko, Richard Crump, Leonardo Elias, and Ignacio Lopez Gaffney

Editor’s note: Since this post was first published, the y-axis label in the last chart has been corrected. February 15, 9:30 a.m.

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has increased the target range for the federal funds rate by 4.50 percentage points since March 16, 2022. In tightening the stance of monetary policy, the FOMC balances the risk of inflation remaining persistently high if the economy continues to run “hot” against the risk of unemployment rising as the economy cools. In this post, we review a quantitative approach to measuring the evolution of risks to real GDP growth, the unemployment rate, and inflation that is inspired by our previous work on “Vulnerable Growth.” We find that, in February, downside risks to real GDP growth and upside risks to unemployment moderated slightly, and upside risks to inflation continued to decline.

Continue reading »
Posted at 7:00 am in Financial Markets, Inflation, Macroeconomics, Unemployment | Permalink
September 23, 2022

The New York Fed DSGE Model Forecast—September 2022

Marco Del Negro, Keshav Dogra, Aidan Gleich, Donggyu Lee, Ramya Nallamotu, and Sikata Sengupta

Photo: decorative; numbers with line chart on top

This post presents an update of the economic forecasts generated by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model. We describe very briefly our forecast and its change since June 2022.

Continue reading »
Posted at 9:00 am in DSGE, DSGE-Forecast, Forecasting, Inflation, Macroeconomics, Monetary Policy | Permalink

RSS RSS Feed

Twitter Follow Liberty Street Economics

About the Blog

Liberty Street Economics features insight and analysis from New York Fed economists working at the intersection of research and policy. Launched in 2011, the blog takes its name from the Bank’s headquarters at 33 Liberty Street in Manhattan’s Financial District.

The editors are Michael Fleming, Andrew Haughwout, Thomas Klitgaard, and Asani Sarkar, all economists in the Bank’s Research Group.

Liberty Street Economics does not publish new posts during the blackout periods surrounding Federal Open Market Committee meetings.

The views expressed are those of the authors, and do not necessarily reflect the position of the New York Fed or the Federal Reserve System.

Economic Research Tracker

Liberty Street Economics is now available on the iPhone® and iPad® and can be customized by economic research topic or economist.

Economic Inequality

image of inequality icons for the Economic Inequality: A Research Series

This ongoing Liberty Street Economics series analyzes disparities in economic and policy outcomes by race, gender, age, region, income, and other factors.

View by Topic

Most Viewed

  1. Fight the Pandemic, Save the Economy: Lessons from the 1918 Flu
  2. A New Barometer of Global Supply Chain Pressures
  3. Everything You Wanted to Know about the Tri-Party Repo Market, but Didn't Know to Ask
  4. Monitoring Real Activity in Real Time: The Weekly Economic Index
  5. Who Are the Federal Student Loan Borrowers and Who Benefits from Forgiveness?

Last 12 Months

  1. Who Are the Federal Student Loan Borrowers and Who Benefits from Forgiveness?
  2. Global Supply Chain Pressure Index: March 2022 Update
  3. The New York Fed DSGE Model Forecast—June 2022
  4. A New Barometer of Global Supply Chain Pressures
  5. Global Supply Chain Pressure Index: May 2022 Update
Useful Links
Comment Guidelines

We encourage your comments and queries on our posts and will publish them (below the post) subject to the following guidelines:

Please be brief: Comments are limited to 1500 characters.

Please be quick: Comments submitted after COB on Friday will not be published until Monday morning.

Please be aware: Comments submitted shortly before or during the FOMC blackout may not be published until after the blackout.

Please be on-topic and patient: Comments are moderated and will not appear until they have been reviewed to ensure that they are substantive and clearly related to the topic of the post. We reserve the right not to post any comment, and will not post comments that are abusive, harassing, obscene, or commercial in nature. No notice will be given regarding whether a submission will or will not be posted.‎

Send Us Feedback

Disclosure Policy

The LSE editors ask authors submitting a post to the blog to confirm that they have no conflicts of interest as defined by the American Economic Association in its Disclosure Policy. If an author has sources of financial support or other interests that could be perceived as influencing the research presented in the post, we disclose that fact in a statement prepared by the author and appended to the author information at the end of the post. If the author has no such interests to disclose, no statement is provided. Note, however, that we do indicate in all cases if a data vendor or other party has a right to review a post.

Archives