Liberty Street Economics

« Dealer Balance Sheets and Corporate Bond Liquidity Provision | Main | Just Released: Bank Loan Performance Under the Magnifying Glass »

May 31, 2017

The New York Fed DSGE Model Forecast—May 2017



This post presents our quarterly update of the economic forecasts generated by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model. We describe very briefly our forecast and its change since February 2017. As usual, we wish to remind our readers that the DSGE model forecast is not an official New York Fed forecast, but only an input to the Research staff’s overall forecasting process. For more information about the model and variables discussed here, see our DSGE Model Q & A.

The table and charts below show the May model forecasts for 2017-20 alongside the forecasts produced in February. The May projections use quarterly macroeconomic data released through the first quarter of 2017, augmented with the FRBNY staff forecasts for GDP growth and core PCE inflation for the second quarter of 2017 and with available financial data through April 30, 2017.


LSE_2017_dsge-forecast-q4_akinci_tbl1_art


LSE_2016_dsge-forecast_akinci_chart1_art


How did the forecasts change since February?

• The current GDP growth forecast is somewhat weaker than its February counterpart throughout the forecast horizon. For 2017 the change in the forecast primarily reflects slower-than-expected expansion in the first quarter. GDP is now expected to grow at 1.9 percent in 2017 (in Q4/Q4 terms) and accelerate only modestly in the following years.

• The lower forecast for GDP growth relative to February is mainly due to a lower projected path for productivity growth. This negative force is partly counteracted by low credit spreads between Baa corporate and Treasury securities, a trend that should support activity in the short and medium run.

• The core PCE inflation forecast is slightly higher than in February, which is not surprising in light of the decline in productivity. The uptick in core PCE in the first quarter of 2017 pushes the core inflation outlook up to 1.5 percent (Q4/Q4) in 2017. Inflation is projected to increase gradually to 1.7 percent (Q4/Q4) in 2020.

• The projections for both output and core PCE are surrounded by considerable uncertainty.

• The forecast for the real natural rate of interest—the real rate of interest that would prevail in the economy absent nominal rigidities and markup shocks—has been revised up by 20 and 10 basis points in 2017 and 2018, respectively (see the chart below). The primary reason for the revision was that the decrease in credit spreads that occurred in the fourth quarter of 2016 turned out to persist in the first and second quarters of 2017, leading to increased estimates of the natural rate and a higher jump-off point for the forecast (recall that the natural rate of interest is not directly observable). Going forward, the natural rate of interest is projected to continue to increase, albeit at a slow pace.


LSE_2016_dsge-forecast_akinci_chart3_art


Disclaimer
The views expressed in this post are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the position of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York or the Federal Reserve System. Any errors or omissions are the responsibility of the authors.





Akinci_ozge Ozge Akinci is an economist in the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Research and Statistics Group.

Marco Del Negro Marco Del Negro is a vice president in the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Research and Statistics Group.


Abhi GuptaAbhi Gupta is a senior research analyst in the Group.


Pearl LiPearl Li is a senior research analyst in the Group.


Erica Moszkowski Erica Moszkowski is a senior research analyst in the Group.




How to cite this blog post:
Ozge Akinci, Marco del Negro, Abhi Gupta, Pearl Li, and Erica Moszkowski, “The New York Fed DSGE Model Forecast—May 2017,” Federal Reserve Bank of New York Liberty Street Economics (blog), May 31, 2017, http://libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2017/05/the-new-york-fed-dsge-model-forecast-may-2017.html.
Posted by Blog Author at 07:00:00 AM in Macroecon, Monetary Policy
Comments

Feed You can follow this conversation by subscribing to the comment feed for this post.

The comments to this entry are closed.

About the Blog
Liberty Street Economics features insight and analysis from economists working at the intersection of research and policy. The editors are Michael Fleming, Andrew Haughwout, Thomas Klitgaard, and Donald Morgan.

The views expressed are those of the authors, and do not necessarily reflect the position of the New York Fed or the Federal Reserve System.


Economic Research Tracker

Liberty Street Economics is now available on the iPhone® and iPad® and can be customized by economic research topic or economist.


Useful Links
Comment Guidelines
We encourage your comments and queries on our posts and will publish them (below the post) subject to the following guidelines:
Please be brief: Comments are limited to 1500 characters.
Please be quick: Comments submitted after COB on Friday will not be published until Monday morning.
Please be aware: Comments submitted shortly before or during the FOMC blackout may not be published until after the blackout.
Please be on-topic and patient: Comments are moderated and will not appear until they have been reviewed to ensure that they are substantive and clearly related to the topic of the post. We reserve the right not to post any comment, and will not post comments that are abusive, harassing, obscene, or commercial in nature. No notice will be given regarding whether a submission will or will not be posted.‎
Disclosure Policy
The LSE editors ask authors submitting a post to the blog to confirm that they have no conflicts of interest as defined by the American Economic Association in its Disclosure Policy. If an author has sources of financial support or other interests that could be perceived as influencing the research presented in the post, we disclose that fact in a statement prepared by the author and appended to the author information at the end of the post. If the author has no such interests to disclose, no statement is provided. Note, however, that we do indicate in all cases if a data vendor or other party has a right to review a post.
Archives