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77 posts on "International Economics"

May 30, 2018

Good News, Leverage, and Sudden Stops



LSE_Good News, Leverage, and Sudden Stops


One of the major debates in open economy macroeconomics is the extent to which capital inflows are beneficial for growth. In principle, these flows allow countries to increase their consumption and investment spending beyond their income by enabling them to tap into foreign saving. Periods of such borrowing, however, are associated with large trade deficits, external debt accumulation, and, in some cases, overheating when these economies operate beyond their potential output level for an extended period of time. The relevant question in this context is whether the rate at which a country is taking on external debt has useful predictive information about financial crises.

Continue reading "Good News, Leverage, and Sudden Stops" »

April 19, 2018

Will New Steel Tariffs Protect U.S. Jobs?



LSE_Will New Steel Tariffs Protect U.S. Jobs?

President Trump announced a new tariff of 25 percent on steel imports and 10 percent on aluminum imports on March 8, 2018. One objective of these tariffs is to protect jobs in the U.S. steel industry. They were introduced under a rarely used 1962 Act, which allows the government to impose trade barriers for national security reasons. Although the tariffs were initially to apply to all trading partners, Canada and Mexico are currently exempt subject to NAFTA negotiations, and implementation of the tariffs for the European Union, Argentina, Australia, and Brazil has been paused. South Korea has received a permanent exemption from the steel tariffs and will instead be subject to a quota of 70 percent of its current average steel exports to the United States. In this post, we consider how the steel tariffs could affect U.S. trade and employment. We focus on steel since the steel industry employs about three times as many workers as the aluminum industry, although qualitatively our conclusions apply to both. We argue that the new tariffs are likely to lead to a net loss in U.S. employment, at least in the short to medium run.

Continue reading "Will New Steel Tariffs Protect U.S. Jobs?" »

Posted by Blog Author at 10:00 AM in Employment, International Economics | Permalink | Comments (0)

February 22, 2018

Just Released: Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands after Hurricanes Irma and Maria



LSE_2018_Just Released: Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands after Hurricanes Irma and Maria

An examination of the fallout from Hurricanes Irma and Maria on the economies of Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands was the focus of an economic press briefing today at the New York Fed. Both U.S. territories were suffering from significant economic downturns and fiscal stress well before the storms hit in September 2017, raising concerns about their paths to recovery.

Continue reading "Just Released: Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands after Hurricanes Irma and Maria" »

February 21, 2018

The Evolution of Mexico’s Merchandise Trade Balance



LSE_2018_The Evolution of Mexico’s Merchandise Trade Balance

Mexico runs a trade surplus with the United States owing to oil exports and cross-border supply chains, with imported U.S. components assembled in Mexico and then exported back to the United States. At the same time, Mexico runs a large trade deficit with Asia, the result of a surge of imports from that region over the past two decades. From Mexico’s perspective, this growing deficit with Asia has worked to offset an increasing trade surplus with the United States. More recently, the country’s merchandise balance suffered a substantial deterioration with the collapse of petroleum prices in late 2014. The balance has subsequently staged a modest recovery, as Mexico’s demand for Asian goods in 2016 cooled while the surplus with the United States (excluding petroleum trade) continues to trend higher. These developments have helped Mexico reduce its need to borrow more from the world to make up for lost petroleum export revenues.

Continue reading "The Evolution of Mexico’s Merchandise Trade Balance" »

Posted by Blog Author at 7:00 AM in Exports, International Economics | Permalink | Comments (0)

January 17, 2018

Did Import Competition Boost Household Debt Demand?



LSE_Did Import Competition Boost Household Debt Demand?t

In the years preceding the Great Recession, the United States experienced a dramatic rise in household debt and an unprecedented increase in import competition. In a recent staff report, we outline a link between these two seemingly unrelated phenomena. We argue that the displacement of workers exposed to import competition fueled their demand for mortgage credit, which left many households more vulnerable to the eventual downturn in the housing market.

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Posted by Blog Author at 7:00 AM in International Economics, Mortgages | Permalink | Comments (0)

September 06, 2017

What Drives International Bank Credit?



LSE_2017_What Drives International Bank Credit?

A major question facing policymakers is how to deal with slumps in bank credit. The policy prescriptions are very different depending on whether the decline is a result of global forces, domestic demand, or supply problems in a particular banking system. We present findings from new research that exactly decompose the growth in banks’ aggregate foreign credit into these three factors. Using global banking data for the period 2000-16, we uncover some striking patterns in bilateral credit relationships between consolidated banking systems and borrowers in more than 200 countries. The most important we term the “Anna Karenina Principle” of global banking: all healthy credit relationships behave alike; each unhealthy credit relationship is unhealthy in its own way.

Continue reading "What Drives International Bank Credit?" »

April 19, 2017

Is Chinese Growth Overstated?



LSE_Is Chinese Growth Overstated?


For analysts of the Chinese economy, questions about the accuracy of the country’s official GDP data are a frequent source of angst, leading many to seek guidance from alternative indicators. These nonofficial gauges often suggest Beijing’s growth figures are exaggerated, but that conclusion is not supported by our analysis, which draws upon satellite measurements of the intensity of China’s nighttime light emissions—a good proxy for GDP growth that is presumably not subject to whatever measurement errors may affect the country’s official economic statistics.

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Posted by Blog Author at 7:00 AM in International Economics | Permalink | Comments (10)

April 18, 2017

Why Renegotiating NAFTA Could Disrupt Supply Chains



LSE_Why Renegotiating NAFTA Could Disrupt Supply Chains

Supply chains have become increasingly interlinked across the U.S.-Mexico border. The North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), allowing tariff-free commerce between the United States, Canada, and Mexico, has facilitated this integration. Some critics of NAFTA are concerned about the bilateral trade deficit and have proposed stricter rules of origin (ROO), which would make it more cumbersome for firms to access the zero tariff rates they are entitled to with NAFTA. We argue that measures that make it costlier for U.S. firms to import will also hurt U.S. exports because much of U.S.-Mexican trade is part of global supply chains.

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Posted by Blog Author at 7:00 AM in Exports, International Economics | Permalink | Comments (0)

April 17, 2017

U.S. Exporters Could Face High Tariffs without NAFTA



LSE_U.S. Exporters Could Face High Tariffs without NAFTA

An underappreciated benefit of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) is the protection it offers U.S. exporters from extreme tariff uncertainty in Mexico. U.S. exporters have not only gained greater tariff preferences under NAFTA than Mexican exporters gained in the United States, they have also been exempt from potential tariff hikes facing other exporters. Mexico’s bound tariff rates—the maximum tariff rate a World Trade Organization (WTO) member can impose—are very high and far exceed U.S. bound rates. Without NAFTA, there is a risk that tariffs on U.S. exports to Mexico could reach their bound rates, which average 35 percent. In contrast, U.S. bound rates average only 4 percent. At the very least, U.S. exporters would be subject to a higher level of policy uncertainty without the trade agreement.

Continue reading "U.S. Exporters Could Face High Tariffs without NAFTA" »

Posted by Blog Author at 7:00 AM in Exports, International Economics | Permalink | Comments (0)

April 12, 2017

The End of China’s Export Juggernaut



LSE_The End of China’s Export Juggernaut

China has been an exporting juggernaut for decades. In the United States, this has meant a dramatic increase in China’s share of imports and a ballooning bilateral trade deficit. Gaining sales in the United States at the expense of other countries, Chinese goods rose from only 2 percent of U.S. non-oil imports in 1990 to 8 percent in 2000 and 17 percent in 2010. But these steady gains in U.S. import share have stopped in recent years, with China even losing ground to other countries in some categories of goods. One explanation for this shift is that Chinese firms now have to directly compete against manufacturers in high-skill developed countries while also fending off competition from lower-wage countries, such as Vietnam. This inability to make additional gains at the expense of other countries means that exports don’t contribute as much to China’s overall growth as they used to.

Continue reading "The End of China’s Export Juggernaut" »

Posted by Blog Author at 7:00 AM in Exports, International Economics | Permalink | Comments (1)
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