15 posts on "Artificial Intelligence (AI)"
May 4, 2026
In What Ways Has U.S. Trade with China Changed?
Over the past year, U.S. trade policy with China has undergone enormous changes, but with surprisingly little effect on overall trade balances. In fact, the U.S.’s twelve-month trade deficit, while highly volatile due to import front-running early in the year, ended 2025 at $1.2 trillion, almost unchanged from 2024. At the same time, China’s trade surplus with the world actually increased from $1 trillion to $1.2 trillion. However, when looking at changes between individual countries, one sees large shifts in bilateral balances. In this post, we will focus on changing trade flows between the U.S., China, and southeast Asia.
Posted at 7:00 am in Artificial Intelligence (AI), International Economics, Tariffs | Permalink | Comments (2)
April 14, 2026
Use of Gen AI in the Workplace and the Value of Access to Training
The rapid spread of generative AI (AI) tools is reshaping the workplace at a remarkable rate. Yet relatively little is known about whether workers have access to these tools, how the tools affect workers’ daily productivity, and how much workers value the training needed to use the tools effectively. In this post, we shed light on these issues by drawing on supplemental questions in the November 2025 Survey of Consumer Expectations (SCE), fielded to a representative sample of the U.S. population. We find that adoption of AI tools at work is heterogeneous, that a sizable share of workers see AI training as important, and that a significant share of employers are nonetheless not yet providing access to AI tools or training on how to use them.
Posted at 10:30 am in Artificial Intelligence (AI), Expectations, Human Capital, Labor Market | Permalink
September 4, 2025
Are Businesses Scaling Back Hiring Due to AI?
The swift advancement of artificial intelligence (AI) has sparked significant concern that this new technology will replace jobs and stifle hiring. To explore the effects of AI on employment, our August regional business surveys asked firms about their adoption of AI and if they had made any corresponding adjustments to their workforces. Businesses reported a notable increase in AI use over the past year, yet very few firms reported AI-induced layoffs. Indeed, for those already employed, our results indicate AI is more likely to result in retraining than job loss, similar to our findings from last year. That said, AI is influencing recruiting, with some firms scaling back hiring due to AI and some firms adding workers proficient in its use. Looking ahead, however, layoffs and reductions in hiring plans due to AI use are expected to increase, especially for workers with a college degree.
Posted at 10:00 am in Artificial Intelligence (AI), Labor Market, New Jersey, New York, Regional Analysis | Permalink
October 2, 2024
Exposure to Generative AI and Expectations About Inequality
With the rise of generative AI (genAI) tools such as ChatGPT, many worry about the tools’ potential displacement effects in the labor market and the implications for income inequality. In supplemental questions to the February 2024 Survey of Consumer Expectations (SCE), we asked a representative sample of U.S. residents about their experience with genAI tools. We find that relatively few people have used genAI, but that those who have used it have a bleaker outlook on its impacts on jobs and future inequality.
Posted at 9:00 am in Artificial Intelligence (AI), Employment, Expectations, Human Capital, Inequality | Permalink | Comments (1)
September 4, 2024
AI and the Labor Market: Will Firms Hire, Fire, or Retrain?
The rapid rise in Artificial Intelligence (AI) has the potential to dramatically change the labor market, and indeed possibly even the nature of work itself. However, how firms are adjusting their workforces to accommodate this emerging technology is not yet clear. Our August regional business surveys asked manufacturing and service firms special topical questions about their use of AI, and how it is changing their workforces. Most firms that report expected AI use in the next six months plan to retrain their workforces, with far fewer reporting adjustments to planned headcounts.
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