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166 posts on "Financial Markets"

June 01, 2016

Revisiting the Case for International Policy Coordination

Sushant Acharya, Ozge Akinci, Julien Bengui, and Bianca De Paoli

LSE_Revisiting the Case for International Policy Coordination

Prompted by the U.S. financial crisis and subsequent global recession, policymakers in advanced economies slashed interest rates dramatically, hitting the zero lower bound (ZLB), and then implemented unconventional policies such as large-scale asset purchases. In emerging economies, however, the policy response was more subdued since they were less affected by the financial crisis. As a result, capital flows from advanced to emerging economies increased markedly in response to widening interest rate differentials. Some emerging economies reacted by adopting measures to slow down capital inflows, acting under the presumption that these flows were harmful. This type of policy response has reignited the debate over how to moderate international spillovers.

Continue reading "Revisiting the Case for International Policy Coordination" »

May 25, 2016

The Macro Effects of the Recent Swing in Financial Conditions



Credit conditions tightened considerably in the second half of 2015 and U.S. growth slowed. We estimate the extent to which tighter credit conditions last year were responsible for the slowdown using the FRBNY DSGE model. We find that growth would have slowed substantially more had the Federal Reserve not delayed liftoff in the federal funds rate.

Continue reading "The Macro Effects of the Recent Swing in Financial Conditions" »

Posted by Blog Author at 7:00 AM in Financial Markets, Macroecon, Monetary Policy | Permalink | Comments (3)

May 09, 2016

The Turnaround in Private and Public Financial Outflows from China



LSE_2016_china-reserves_klitgaard_460_art

China lends to the rest of the world because it saves much more than it needs to fund its high level of physical investment spending. For years, the public sector accounted for this lending through the Chinese central bank’s purchase of foreign assets, but this changed in 2015. The country still had substantial net financial outflows, but unlike in previous years, more private money was pouring out of China than was flowing in. This shift in private sector behavior forced the central bank to sell foreign assets so that the sum of net private and public outflows would equal the saving surplus at prevailing exchange rates. Explanations for this turnaround by private investors include lower returns on domestic investment spending and a less optimistic outlook for China’s currency.


Continue reading "The Turnaround in Private and Public Financial Outflows from China" »

Posted by Blog Author at 7:00 AM in Financial Markets, International Economics | Permalink | Comments (0)

May 05, 2016

Borrowing, Lending, and Swapping Collateral in GCF Repo®



Borrowing, Lending, and Swapping Collateral in GCF Repo®

In the third post in this series, we examined GCF Repo® traders’ end-of-day strategies. In this final post, we further our understanding of dealers’ behavior by looking at their trading pattern within the day.

Continue reading "Borrowing, Lending, and Swapping Collateral in GCF Repo®" »

Posted by Blog Author at 7:00 AM in Financial Institutions, Financial Markets | Permalink | Comments (0)

May 04, 2016

Why Dealers Trade in GCF Repo®



LSE_2016_GCF-repo-series-3_460_art


In this post, the third in a series on GCF Repo®, we describe dealers’ trading strategies. We show that most dealers exhibit highly regular strategies, using the GCF Repo service either to borrow or to lend, on net, on almost all the days in which they are active. Moreover, dealers’ strategies are highly persistent over time: Dealers that use GCF Repo to borrow (or to lend) in a given quarter are highly likely to continue to do so in the following quarter. Understanding how dealers trade in the GCF Repo market may provide insight about the role of the repo market more generally and about how recent regulations and market reforms can affect dealers’ trading strategies.

Continue reading "Why Dealers Trade in GCF Repo®" »

Posted by Blog Author at 7:00 AM in Financial Institutions, Financial Markets | Permalink | Comments (0)

May 03, 2016

Understanding the Interbank GCF Repo® Market



LSE_2016_GCF-repo-series-2_460_art

In this post, we provide a different perspective on the General Collateral Finance (GCF) Repo® market. Instead of looking at the market as a whole, as we did in our previous post , or breaking it down by type of dealer, as we did in this primer, we disaggregate interbank activity by clearing bank and by collateral class. This perspective highlights the most traded collateral and the extent to which dealers at a clearing bank are net borrowers or net lenders. This view of the market is informative given the proposed changes announced recently by the Fixed Income Clearing Corporation.


Continue reading "Understanding the Interbank GCF Repo® Market" »

Posted by Blog Author at 7:05 AM in Financial Markets | Permalink | Comments (0)

May 02, 2016

What’s Up with GCF Repo®?



LSE_2016_GCF-repo-series-1_460_art

In a recent Important Notice, the Fixed Income Clearing Corporation (FICC) announced that it would no longer support interbank trading for its General Collateral Finance Repo Service. (GCF Repo®, hereafter GCF Repo, is a registered service mark of FICC.) But what exactly is the GCF Repo market? And what is interbank GCF Repo specifically? In a series of four posts we take a close look at the GCF Repo market and how it has evolved recently. This first post provides an overview of the GCF Repo market and evaluates its size relative to that of the tri-party repo market as a whole. We also explain what interbank GCF Repo is and show what share of the market it represents.


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Posted by Blog Author at 7:00 AM in Financial Markets | Permalink | Comments (2)

Lower Oil Prices and U.S. Economic Activity



Lower Oil Prices and U.S. Economic Activity

After a period of stability, oil prices started to decline in mid-2015, and this downward trend continued into early 2016. As we noted in an earlier post, it is important to assess whether these price declines reflect demand shocks or supply shocks, since the two types of shocks have different implications for the U.S. economic outlook. In this post, we again use correlations of weekly oil price changes with a broad array of financial variables to quantify the drivers of oil price movements, finding that the decline since mid-2015 is due to a mix of weaker demand and increased supply. Given strong interest in the drivers of oil prices, the oil price decomposition is information we will be sharing in a new Oil Price Dynamics Report on our public website each Monday starting today. We conclude this post using another model that finds that the higher oil supply boosted U.S. economic activity in 2015, though this impact is expected to wear off in 2016.

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Posted by Blog Author at 7:00 AM in Financial Markets, International Economics, Macroecon | Permalink | Comments (0)

April 11, 2016

Just Released: U.S. Economy in a Snapshot—More Data for More Charts



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We launched the U.S. Economy in a Snapshot in June 2015 to provide interested readers with a monthly update of current economic and financial developments. Combining charts and summary points, the packet covers a range of topics that include labor and financial markets, the behavior of consumers and firms, survey responses, and the global economy.

Continue reading "Just Released: U.S. Economy in a Snapshot—More Data for More Charts" »

Posted by Blog Author at 10:05 AM in Financial Markets, Macroecon | Permalink | Comments (0)

April 08, 2016

Reconciling Survey- and Market-Based Expectations for the Policy Rate



Reconciling Survey- and Market-Based Expectations for the Policy Rate


In our previous post, we showed that the gap between the market-implied path for the federal funds rate and the survey-implied mean expectations for the federal funds rate from the Survey of Primary Dealers (SPD) and the Survey of Market Participants (SMP) narrowed from the December survey to the January survey. In particular, we provided explanations for this narrowing as well as for the subsequent widening from January to March. This post continues the discussion by presenting a novel approach called “tilting” that yields insights by measuring how much the survey probability distributions have to be altered to match the market-implied path of the federal funds rate. We interpret any discrepancy between the original and tilted distributions as arising from either risk premia or dispersion in beliefs.

Continue reading "Reconciling Survey- and Market-Based Expectations for the Policy Rate" »

Posted by Blog Author at 7:00 AM in Financial Markets, Monetary Policy | Permalink | Comments (0)
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